COTTON
General
Comments: Cotton was lower yesterday after testing a
resistance area on the charts.
Resistance held and the market turned lower for the day. A catalyst for the recent rally has been the
trade deal between the US and China, which is where the virus got started. China has been buying Cotton from the US and
Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic
production. It has not bought from the
US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade
deal is signed. Big buying from China
could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in
anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti
climatic.
Overnight News: The Delta should see dry weather
except for some mixed precipitation today and the Southeast should get
precipitation today and again about Friday.
Temperatures should average near to above normal. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be on both sides of
normal. The USDA average price is now 65.60
ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks
are now 6,792 ba1es, from 6,792 bales yesterday. USDA said that net Upland Cottpon export
sales were 347,100 bales this year and 50,200 bales next year. Net Pima sales were 15,800 bales this year
and 0 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March,
with resistance of 7140, 7170, and 7190 March.
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher yesterday. The longer term trading range has held
together for about a year now. There is
a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges
production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as
there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this
year. Many areas have been dry lately
and irrigation is being used. Crop yields
and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and
are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry
conditions but some rain is possible latwe today and late on Friday. Temperatures will average near to above
normal. Brazil should get dry conditions
through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for
delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are
now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March,
with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures
were lower in New York and in London.
The Brazilian crop is developing well.
Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the
Real and the good development of the new crop.
It is dry in other parts of Latin America. Central America has had less than normal
rains, especially in Honduras. The Asian
harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that
prices are too low. Vietnam exports
remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers. Vietnamese crops are expected
to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher
today at 2.166 million bags. The ICO
daily average price is now 99.78 ct/lb.
Brazil will get scattered showers through this weekend with near to
above normal temperatures. Vietnam will
see mostly dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are down with
objectives of 100.00 March. Support is
at04.00, 101.00, and 98.00 March, and resistance is at 110.00, 111.00 and 114.00
March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1310, 1290, and 1270 March,
and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.
SUGAR
General Comments: Both markets closed lower. There
is a shortage of White Sugar in the cash market right now to support the bulls
and to negate the start of a down trend from Monday. Brazil could produce more Sugar and less
Ethanol due to the current weakness in Crude Oil and Ethanol prices, but the
mills need cash and have supported the move by Brazil to produce more Ethanol. Reports indicate that little is on offer from
India. Thailand might also have less
this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon
season. Losses in both countries would
affect the White Sugar market more than New York. Reports from India indicate that the country
is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories
from last year. However, these supplies
are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply
good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered
showers through this weekend. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.
Support is at 1430, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390,
and 1410 March. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 399.00, 393.00, and 387l.00 March,
and resistance is at 412.00, 415.00, and 418.00 March.
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed a little higher. The weather remains unfavorable in West
Africa. The hot and dry conditions are
bringing ideas of smaller crops to the market.
Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very
good. Ideas are that demand is currently
very strong due to the current price action.
Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels. The weather in Ivory Coast is generally good,
although it has turned hot and dry there.
The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop
is not developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected
in southern and eastern sections of West Africa. Temperatures will be on both sides of
normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should
see showers. Temperatures should average
above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry
conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.998
million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2680, 2650, and 2600 March,
with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March.
Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900
March. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860
March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.
141
W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604 | (800)
769-7021 | (312) 264-4322 (Direct) | www.pricegroup.com
Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in
futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information
and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their
accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to
be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or
purchase of any securities or futures.
The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers
may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree
with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as
a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full
responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or
distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the
written permission of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to Morning Softs please click here.
To Unsubscribe from Morning Softs please click here.
Click Here to View
the Morning Softs Archives