MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Tuesday,
January 28, 2020
DJ USDA Grain Inspections
for Export in Metric Tons - Jan 27
COUNTRY OF
DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.
INFORMATION
CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND
WEIGHED
THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.
NO ADDITIONAL
ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.
GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED
FOR EXPORT
REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING JAN
23, 2020
-- METRIC TONS --
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CURRENT PREVIOUS
----------- WEEK ENDING
---------- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR
GRAIN
01/23/2020 01/16/2020 01/24/2019
TO DATE TO DATE
BARLEY 416 318 0 17,662 6,534
CORN 668,559 396,613
968,585 10,150,559 21,584,077
FLAXSEED 0 0
0 396 218
MIXED 0 0 0 0 0
OATS 200 48 0 2,266 1,793
RYE 0 0 0 0 0
SORGHUM 142,217 31,005 7,605
1,130,903 572,227
SOYBEANS 1,038,840
1,206,140 944,680 25,214,900
20,484,903
SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0
WHEAT 223,994 516,309
367,604 16,223,914 14,384,336
Total 2,074,226 2,150,433
2,288,474 52,740,600 57,034,088
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
CROP
MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND
FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND
SUNFLOWER SEEDS.
INCLUDES
WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.
WHEAT:
General
Comments:
Wheat
markets were mixed, with Chicago SRW a little lower and the other markets a
little higher. Futures had been sharply
lower in reaction to news that the corona virus was spreading but recovered
those losses as world market conditions remain firm. The markets have run a long way on news of
world production problems and firm world prices. Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in
the Black Sea region have strengthened.
The Ruble has also been firmer against the US Dollar and this has also
caused Russian prices to form in the world market. World prices will still be dictated by what
happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain
a follower as the US tries to compete.
The lack of production in Russia and in the southern parts of the world
means higher prices for now. US farmers
planted less Wheat than any time in the last 100 years so no real change in the
world scenario of less supply is indicated.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation today
and then dry conditions. Temperatures
should trend to near to above normal this week.
Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions except for some light
precipitation on Thursday and Saturday.
Temperatures will average near to above normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry
weather. Temperatures should be above
normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 564, 560, and 557 March, with
resistance at 575, 583, and 587 March.
Trends in Kansas City are mixed.
Support is at 481, 477, and 467 March, with resistance at 491, 500, and 504
March. Trends in Minneapolis are down
with objectives of 537, 522, and 516 March.
Support is at 542, 540, and 539 March, and resistance is at 556, 560,
and 563 March.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was lower for the week but recovered from its lowest levels to
close with more moderate losses. The
trade was worried about how the corona virus could expand and hurt Asian
demand, but the US sell into the west and not into the east. Stocks in the west are tight and stocks are
called tight in the US. The tone remains
firm but some speculators and producers have been selling. The weekly charts still display a bullish
market as futures have traded to levels not seen since 2014 on the weekly
continuation charts. Prices are
profitable for producers at this time.
Some are also selling the next crop and the trade and open interest in
the September contract is relatively large for the time of year. More selling from producers of the next crop
is expected on any further rally attempts.
Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the export sales pace
in general has been very good. The US
domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real
interested in selling. Mills and
exporters are thought to be covered for now but will need to step into the market
to buy again soon.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers
and rains tomorrow and again late in the week.
Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends
are mixed. Support is at 1335, 1326, and
1316 March, with resistance at 1355, 1370, and 1380 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats moved lower in reaction to news
of the spread of the corona virus. Ideas
of lost demand hurt the market. The
markets got especially hurt by the weakness in petroleum products and the
potential loss of ethanol related demand.
Export demand has been disappointing and ethanol and other industrial
demand has started to improve but faces an uncertain road ahead. Export demand was strong in the USDA reports
released on Friday, but the trading world wants to see much more of these kinds
of weekly sales before getting too excited.
Much of the improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China
starts to buy. Feed demand was improved
as seen in the latest quarterly stocks report.
That report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the
domestic cash market. The market has
been short Corn as farmers have been holding.
Corn could srill trade to 405 and then 420 based off the weekly charts
and basis the nearby futures contract, but the rally potential is now in doubt
after the selling on Friday.
Overnight News: Mexico bought 124,355 tons of US
Corn overnight.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of
370, 368, and 350 March. Support is at 377,
373, and 371 March, and resistance is at 385, 394, and 396 March. Trends in Oats are down with no objectives. Support is at 295, 288, and 283 March, and
resistance is at 305, 308, and 312 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and the products were lower on ideas of demand losses in part
due to big production potential in Brazil and in part due to the effects of the
corona virus now spreading through China and other countries. In fact, five cases have now been confirmed
in the US, mostly from travelers coming back for Wiehan in China. Soybeans have left a well defined top with
second swing objectives of 883 basis the March futures contract. The first target was 905 seen on Friday. The news that the US and China had reached
agreement on a Phase One deal that covered agricultural goods was bullish but
already part of the market. New buying
from China is expected but US prices will need to be competitive with those
from South America. Lower prices there
will hurt overall demand here, and lower prices are very possible in
Brazil. Brazil is harvesting now and
yield reports from the field indicate that a bumper crop is coming. Argentina has been dry and more dryness is
expected, so conditions and production potential are down there. China will return in the end to buy at least
as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem
and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South
America.
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are down with objectives of 884 March. Support is at 890, 888, and 883 March, and
resistance is at 903, 911, and 915 March.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 291.00 March Support
is at 296.00, 293.00, and 290.00 March, and resistance is at 301.00, 304.00,
and 307.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil
are down with no objectives. Support is
at 3110, 3070, and 3040 March, with resistance at 3200, 3260, and 3300 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower along with
the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. The fallout from the coronavirus affected
this market as well as those in the US.
Demand from crushers is reported to be good and crush margins are
reported to be strong. Farmers are not
selling. Palm Oil was lower in
consolidation trading before the Lunar New Year holiday.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are down with no objectives. Support is at 461.00, 459.00, and 456.00 March,
with resistance at 468.00, 473.00, and 474.00 March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2820, 2800, and 2760 April,
with resistance at 2970, 3000, and 3040 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and
snow off and on all week. Temperatures
should average near normal.
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean Meal
|
Soybean Oil
|
January
|
+50 Mar
|
+166 Mar
|
+110 Mar
|
+52 Mar
|
+12 Mar
|
N/A
|
February
|
+53 Mar
|
|
+112 Mar
|
+50 Mar
|
|
|
March
|
+60 Mar
|
|
+112 Mar
|
+47 Mar
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain
Close - Jan 27
WINNIPEG --
The following are the closing cash
canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE
Futures
Price Basis
Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par
Region 434.26 -35.24
Mar 2020 dn 3.60
Basis:
Thunder Bay 468.50 7.00
Mar 2020 dn 8.00
Basis:
Vancouver 489.50 20.00
Mar 2020 dn 8.00
All prices in
Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for
previous day
Source:
Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - January 28
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker
Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 697.50
-67.50 Unquoted -
-
Mar 697.50 -65.00
Unquoted - -
Apr/May/Jun 657.50
-75.00 Unquoted -
-
Jul/Aug/Sep 627.00
-72.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 700.00 -67.50
Unquoted - -
Mar 700.00 -65.00
Unquoted - -
Apr/May/Jun 660.00
-75.00 Unquoted -
-
Jul/Aug/Sep 630.00
-72.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 710.00 -50.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 680.00 -20.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 2,700.00 -320.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb 200.00
-29.00 Unquoted -
-
($1=MYR4.0840)
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