COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was mixed to lower, but rebounded from extreme losses to close higher in the nearby months and just a little lower in deferred months.  It was a remarkable close given that all anyone was talking about was the coronavirus and how much it could affect demand for a whole host of commodities.  A catalyst for the recent rally has been the trade deal between the US and China, which is where the virus got started.  China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed.  Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should see dry weather except for some mixed precipitation later today and the Southeast should get precipitation tomorrow and again about Friday.  Temperatures should average near to above normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions after some mixed precipitation today.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  The USDA average price is now 65.05 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 ba1es, from 6,792 bales yesterday.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March, with resistance of 7000, 7140, and 7170 March.

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little lower yesterday.  It was mostly a very quiet session.  Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on the weekly charts.  The range has held together for about a year now.  There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.    

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were lower in New York and higher in London.  The weekly charts in New York suggest that further price weakness is possible, but London could find a bottom at current prices.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas.  The Brazilian crop is developing well.  Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new crop.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.160 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 102.80 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers this week with near to above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 105.00 and 100.00 March.  Support is at 110.00, 106.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 116.00, 120.00 and 123.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1410 and 1450 March.   Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York closed a little lower while London closed lower.  The US Dollar has turned firmer and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program.  Brazil could produce more Sugar and less Ethanol due to the current weakness in Crude Oil and Ethanol prices.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York.  There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that all three countries will have to sell sooner or later.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get drier weather this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1410, 1360, and 1310 March.  Support is at 1410, 1370, and 1340 March, and resistance is at 1430, 1460, and 1490 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 385.00, 372.00, and 352.00 March.  Support is at 393.00, 387.00, and 383.00 March, and resistance is at 403.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.

COCOA              

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher on speculative buying tied to dry weather in West Africa.  The hot and dry conditions are bringing ideas of smaller crops to the trading table.  Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast is good.  The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in southern sections of West Africa.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.032 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2700, 2680, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900 March.  Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.

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