COTTON
General
Comments: Cotton was lower last week and trends could be
turning down in the market. A catalyst
for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China. China has been buying Cotton from the US and
Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic
production. It has not bought from the
US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade
deal is signed. Big buying from China
could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in
anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti
climatic. The market has not been able
to move a lot in terms of price on the daily charts for the last month as the
harvest has been wrapping up amid some stressful conditions. The harvest is now about over and certified
stocks are now down.
Overnight News: The Delta and Southeast should
see dry weather except for some mixed precipitation later
tomorrow. Temperatures should trend to near
to above normal. Texas will have mostly
dry conditions or light precipitation.
Temperatures will average near to above normal. The USDA average price is now 64.94
ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks
are now 6,792 ba1es, from 6,792 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March,
with resistance of 7000, 7140, and 7170 March.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
January 21, 2020
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661
Open Interest is 303,509
: Positions
:
: 38,921
23,621 88,112 62,192
165,371 97,359 16,786
286,584 293,889: 16,926
9,620
: Changes from: January 14,
2020 (Change in open
interest: 3,952) :
: -76
2,643 2,598 3,679 -493
-162 -89 6,038
4,659: -2,086 -707
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.8
7.8 29.0 20.5
54.5 32.1 5.5
94.4 96.8: 5.6
3.2
: Total Traders: 313
Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 112
73 100 51 63 52 24
259 224:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FCOJ
General Comments: FCOJ was a little higher for
the week and the situation remains bearish.
Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on
the weekly charts. The range has held
together for about a year now. There is
a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption. Good growing conditions and increased oranges
production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish. The weather has been great for the trees as
there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this
year. Many areas have been dry lately
and irrigation is being used. Crop
yields and quality should be high for Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and
are more than 34% above last year.
Overnight News: Florida should get mostly dry
conditions after some heavy rain today.
Temperatures will average near to below normal. Brazil should get dry conditions through the
weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January
contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March,
with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined
Positions as of January 21, 2020
:
Reportable Positions :
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User :
Swap Dealers :
Managed Money : Other Reportables :
: Long :
Short : Long
: Short :Spreading:
Long : Short
:Spreading: Long :
Short :Spreading :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701
Open Interest is 23,758 :
: Positions :
: 10,140 7,493
1,355 0 68
1,047 8,650 461
1,979 1,100 2,962 :
: Changes from: January 14,
2020 :
: 123 237 55 0 0 33
112 35 67 1
-22 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 42.7 31.5
5.7 0.0 0.3
4.4 36.4 1.9
8.3 4.6 12.5 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders:
94 :
: 22 12 6 0 . 4 27 4 19 8 13 :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE
General Comments: Futures
were lower for the week in New York and higher in London. The weekly charts in New York suggest that
further price weakness is possible, but London could find a bottom at current
prices. Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee
areas. The Brazilian crop is developing
well. Offers were said to increase from
the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new
crop. It is dry in other parts of Latin
America. Central America has had less
than normal rains, especially in Honduras.
The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on
ideas that prices are too low. Vietnam
exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger
offers. Vietnamese crops are expected
to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher
today at 2.145 million bags. The ICO
daily average price is now 104.58 ct/lb.
Brazil will get drier weather this weekend with near to above normal
temperatures. Vietnam will see mostly
dry conditions.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down
with objectives of 105.00 and 100.00 March.
Support is at 110.00, 106.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 116.00,
120.00 and 123.00 March. Trends in
London are mixed to up with objectives of 1410 and 1450 March. Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1290 March,
and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
January 21, 2020
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731
Open Interest is 354,775
: Positions :
: 34,777
21,068 110,880 114,517
193,611 81,112 21,916
341,286 347,475: 13,489
7,300
: Changes from: January 14,
2020 (Change in open
interest: -6,990) :
: -2,840
159 -4,731 1,009
-4,554 -384 2,293
-6,946 -6,833: -44
-158
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 9.8
5.9 31.3 32.3
54.6 22.9 6.2
96.2 97.9: 3.8
2.1
: Total Traders: 431
Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 131
87 150
125 121 51 26
380 328:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE
Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments
of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined
Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI
Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta
Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
132,738
80,168 59,688 12,209 14,600 1,510
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0%
60.4% 45.0% 9.2% 11.0% 1.1%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
156 58 41 11 7 11
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long
Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
6,491
31,750 9,186 5,154 1,222 10,708
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
4.9%
23.9% 6.9% 3.9% 0.9% 8.1%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
17 32 22 15
10 18
Nonreportable
Positions
=======================
Long
Short
=======================
7,311
4,074
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.5%
3.1%
SUGAR
General Comments: New York closed a little lower while London closed higher. The US Dollar has turned firmer and this was
a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program. Reports indicate that little is on offer from
India. Thailand might also have less this
year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon
season. Losses in both countries would
affect the White Sugar market more than New York. There is still more than enough Sugar for any
demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later. Reports from India indicate that the country
is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories
from last year. However, these supplies
are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply
good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get drier weather
this weekend. Temperatures should be
near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.
Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1460, 1490,
and 1510 March. Trends in London are
mixed. Support is at 398.00, 394.00, and
387.00 March, and resistance is at 403.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
January 21, 2020
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732
Open Interest is 1,356,234
: Positions
:
: 186,553
115,562 317,748 421,981
785,046 330,910 79,428 1,257,191 1,297,784: 99,043
58,450
: Changes from: January 14,
2020 (Change in open interest: 32,174) :
: 17,575
-17,431 1,322 -1,702
40,644 14,127 2,160
31,321 26,695: 853
5,479
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 13.8
8.5 23.4 31.1
57.9 24.4 5.9
92.7 95.7: 7.3
4.3
: Total Traders: 290
Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 97
44
102 86
78 44 25
272 212:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE
Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options
Commitments
of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined
Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI
Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White
Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe
115,299
35,989 86,153 12,893 1,949 5,519
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0%
31.2% 74.7% 11.2% 1.7% 4.8%
Number of Traders
in Each Category
139
41 49 10 5 8
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
36,134 1,734 8,433 3,708
2,491 6,738
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
31.3% 1.5% 7.3% 3.2% 2.2% 5.8%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
43 3 15 7 10 13
Nonreportable
Positions
=======================
Long
Short
=======================
5,884
2,282
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.1%
2.0%
DJ Brazil
Center-South Sugar Cane Crush Drops as Most Mills Close Between Harvests
By Jeffrey T. Lewis
SAO PAULO--Brazilian sugar mills in the
country's center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of January
compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 128,000 metric
tons of cane in the period, a decline of 77.1% from the same period a year
earlier. They produced 4,000 tons of sugar, down 66.9%, and made 96 million
liters of ethanol, an increase of 32.8%.
Brazil is the world's biggest sugar producer
and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country's cane. Most
mills in the region have closed in the period between cane harvests. Activity
should start to increase again toward the end of March and the beginning of
April.
The production mix for the first half of
January month was 24.7% sugar to 75.3% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was
23.05% sugar and 76.95% ethanol.
In the season from April 1 through Jan. 16,
mills in the region crushed 578.7 million tons of cane, up 2.8% from the same
period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 0.5% to 26.5 million tons, and
ethanol output rose 6.6% to 32.2 billion liters.
The production mix for the season through
Jan. 16 was 34.5% sugar to 65.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 35.5%
sugar and 64.5% ethanol.
Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com
COCOA
General Comments: Both markets closed lower
after making new highs for the move.
Maybe the market is about done with the current rally. Funds and other speculators were more two
sided in trading. Producers were sellers
in both markets. Harvest is now active
in West Africa and the results so far are very good. Ideas are that demand is currently very
strong due to the current price action.
The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the
region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong
and are above year ago levels. The
weather in Ivory Coast is good. The
weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not
developing well at this time.
Overnight News: Scattered showers are expected
in southern sections of West Africa.
Temperatures will be on both sides of normal. Malaysia and Indonesia should see
showers. Temperatures should average
above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry
conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.037
million bags.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2730, 2680, and 2650 March,
with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March.
Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900
March. Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860
March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
January 21, 2020
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732
Open Interest is 382,712
: Positions
:
: 62,065
39,247 125,289 100,509
181,635 78,186 24,985
366,049 371,156: 16,663
11,556
: Changes from: January 14,
2020 (Change in open interest: 48,047) :
: 13,811
3,743 20,666 6,053
20,191 5,986 2,369
46,516 46,969: 1,531
1,078
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 16.2
10.3 32.7 26.3
47.5 20.4 6.5
95.6 97.0: 4.4
3.0
: Total Traders: 265
Number of Traders in Each Category :
:
102 52 96
42 47 43 24
234 186:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE
Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options
Commitments
of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined
Positions as of 01/21/2020
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI
Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa
Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
403,029
187,547 274,929 30,537 15,705 30,425
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0%
46.5% 68.2% 7.6% 3.9% 7.5%
Number of Traders
in Each Category
161 52 49 13 7 10
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long
Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
63,719 348 31,336 6,888
494 48,230
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
15.8% 0.1% 7.8%
1.7% 0.1% 12.0%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
47 5 20 19 8
25
Nonreportable
Positions
=======================
Long
Short
=======================
4,347
1,562
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
1.1%
0.4%
141
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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in
futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information
and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their
accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to
be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or
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may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree
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