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MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

                                       

 

Jack Scoville

 

Monday, January 27, 2020

 

 


Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net


 

 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was lower last week and trends could be turning down in the market.  A catalyst for the rally has been the trade deal between the US and China.  China has been buying Cotton from the US and Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  It has not bought from the US in the last few weeks but will probably resume buying now that the trade deal is signed.  Big buying from China could rally the market, but futures have already moved significantly higher in anticipation of any Chinese buying and the actual buying could become anti climatic.  The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price on the daily charts for the last month as the harvest has been wrapping up amid some stressful conditions.  The harvest is now about over and certified stocks are now down. 

Overnight News:  The Delta and Southeast should see dry weather except for some mixed precipitation later tomorrow.  Temperatures should trend to near to above normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions or light precipitation.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.  The USDA average price is now 64.94 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 6,792 ba1es, from 6,792 bales yesterday.    

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6900, 6880, and 6870 March, with resistance of 7000, 7140, and 7170 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020               

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                    

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   303,509

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   38,921    23,621    88,112    62,192   165,371    97,359    16,786   286,584   293,889:   16,926     9,620

    : Changes from: January 14, 2020           (Change in open interest:       3,952)         :

    :      -76     2,643     2,598     3,679      -493      -162       -89     6,038     4,659:   -2,086      -707

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     12.8       7.8      29.0      20.5      54.5      32.1       5.5      94.4      96.8:      5.6       3.2

    : Total Traders:   313          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      112        73       100        51        63        52        24       259       224:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little higher for the week and the situation remains bearish.  Futures are back to trading at the lower levels of the trading range on the weekly charts.  The range has held together for about a year now.  There is a big crop of Oranges out there with not many outlets for consumption.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 34% above last year.    

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry conditions after some heavy rain today.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get dry conditions through the weekend and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE said that 0 notices were posted for delivery against January contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 4 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 94.00, 92.00, and 89.00 March, with resistance at 98.00, 99.00, and 100.00 March.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020 

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    23,758                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   10,140     7,493     1,355         0        68     1,047     8,650       461     1,979     1,100     2,962 :

: Changes from:     January 14, 2020                                                                           :

:      123       237        55         0         0        33       112        35        67         1       -22 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     42.7      31.5       5.7       0.0       0.3       4.4      36.4       1.9       8.3       4.6      12.5 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    94                     :

:       22        12         6         0         .         4        27         4        19         8        13 :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were lower for the week in New York and higher in London.  The weekly charts in New York suggest that further price weakness is possible, but London could find a bottom at current prices.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas.  The Brazilian crop is developing well.  Offers were said to increase from the country due to the weakness in the Real and the good development of the new crop.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers.  Vietnamese crops are expected to be big despite uneven growing conditions earlier in the year.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.145 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 104.58 ct/lb.  Brazil will get drier weather this weekend with near to above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see mostly dry conditions. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 105.00 and 100.00 March.  Support is at 110.00, 106.00, and 104.00 March, and resistance is at 116.00, 120.00 and 123.00 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 1410 and 1450 March.   Support is at 1320, 1310, and 1290 March, and resistance is at 1370, 1390, and 1410 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020               

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                       

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   354,775

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   34,777    21,068   110,880   114,517   193,611    81,112    21,916   341,286   347,475:   13,489     7,300

    : Changes from: January 14, 2020           (Change in open interest:      -6,990)         :

    :   -2,840       159    -4,731     1,009    -4,554      -384     2,293    -6,946    -6,833:      -44      -158

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      9.8       5.9      31.3      32.3      54.6      22.9       6.2      96.2      97.9:      3.8       2.1

    : Total Traders:   431          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      131        87       150       125       121        51        26       380       328:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  132,738       80,168        59,688        12,209       14,600        1,510  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        60.4%        45.0%          9.2%         11.0%          1.1%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    156           58           41            11             7            11  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

    6,491        31,750        9,186     5,154        1,222      10,708  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

    4.9%         23.9%          6.9%     3.9%         0.9%          8.1%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     17            32            22       15           10            18  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   7,311      4,074  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   5.5%       3.1%

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  New York closed a little lower while London closed higher.  The US Dollar has turned firmer and this was a signal for Brazil to step up its export pricing program.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  Losses in both countries would affect the White Sugar market more than New York.  There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  However, these supplies are apparently not moving despite relatively strong world prices.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get drier weather this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal. 

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1420, 1410, and 1370 March, and resistance is at 1460, 1490, and 1510 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 398.00, 394.00, and 387.00 March, and resistance is at 403.00, 412.00, and 415.00 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020               

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                   

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,356,234

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  186,553   115,562   317,748   421,981   785,046   330,910    79,428 1,257,191 1,297,784:   99,043    58,450

    : Changes from: January 14, 2020           (Change in open interest:      32,174)         :

    :   17,575   -17,431     1,322    -1,702    40,644    14,127     2,160    31,321    26,695:      853     5,479

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     13.8       8.5      23.4      31.1      57.9      24.4       5.9      92.7      95.7:      7.3       4.3

    : Total Traders:   290          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       97        44       102        86        78        44        25       272       212:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short      Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe  

  115,299       35,989        86,153        12,893        1,949        5,519  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        31.2%        74.7%         11.2%          1.7%          4.8%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    139           41           49            10             5             8  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long          Short      Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

   36,134         1,734        8,433     3,708        2,491       6,738  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   31.3%          1.5%          7.3%     3.2%         2.2%          5.8%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     43            3             15       7            10            13  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   5,884      2,282  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   5.1%       2.0%

 

DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Cane Crush Drops as Most Mills Close Between Harvests

  By Jeffrey T. Lewis

  SAO PAULO--Brazilian sugar mills in the country's center-south region crushed less cane in the first half of January compared with a year earlier, according to industry group Unica.

  Center-south mills crushed 128,000 metric tons of cane in the period, a decline of 77.1% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 4,000 tons of sugar, down 66.9%, and made 96 million liters of ethanol, an increase of 32.8%.

  Brazil is the world's biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows about 90% of the country's cane. Most mills in the region have closed in the period between cane harvests. Activity should start to increase again toward the end of March and the beginning of April.

  The production mix for the first half of January month was 24.7% sugar to 75.3% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 23.05% sugar and 76.95% ethanol.

  In the season from April 1 through Jan. 16, mills in the region crushed 578.7 million tons of cane, up 2.8% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production rose 0.5% to 26.5 million tons, and ethanol output rose 6.6% to 32.2 billion liters.

  The production mix for the season through Jan. 16 was 34.5% sugar to 65.5% ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 35.5% sugar and 64.5% ethanol.

  Write to Jeffrey T. Lewis at jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower after making new highs for the move.  Maybe the market is about done with the current rally.  Funds and other speculators were more two sided in trading.  Producers were sellers in both markets.  Harvest is now active in West Africa and the results so far are very good.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast is good.  The weather is too dry in Nigeria and there are fears that the mid crop is not developing well at this time. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in southern sections of West Africa.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.037 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2730, 2680, and 2650 March, with resistance at 2790, 2840, and 2860 March.  Trends in London are mixed to down with objectives of 1950 and 1900 March.  Support is at 1930, 1910, and 1860 March, with resistance at 1980, 2000, and 2030 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of January 21, 2020               

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                           

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   382,712

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   62,065    39,247   125,289   100,509   181,635    78,186    24,985   366,049   371,156:   16,663    11,556

    : Changes from: January 14, 2020           (Change in open interest:      48,047)         :

    :   13,811     3,743    20,666     6,053    20,191     5,986     2,369    46,516    46,969:    1,531     1,078

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     16.2      10.3      32.7      26.3      47.5      20.4       6.5      95.6      97.0:      4.4       3.0

    : Total Traders:   265          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      102        52        96        42        47        43        24       234       186:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 01/21/2020  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

               Producer/Merchant/

                 Processor/User                       Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Cocoa Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  403,029       187,547      274,929        30,537       15,705       30,425  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        46.5%        68.2%          7.6%          3.9%          7.5%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    161           52           49            13             7            10  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

   63,719         348         31,336     6,888         494       48,230  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   15.8%          0.1%          7.8%     1.7%         0.1%          12.0%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     47            5             20       19           8             25  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   4,347      1,562  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   1.1%       0.4%

 

 

 

 

 

 



141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (312) 264-4322 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.

The Price Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission of the author.

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