MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Thursday,
January 23, 2020
DJ Analysts' Estimates for
January USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report
The following estimates, as compiled by The
Wall Street Journal for the nation's feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more
head, are in percentages of the year-earlier figure. High and low projections
were dropped in the calculation of averages. The U.S. Department of Agriculture
report is scheduled for release at 3 p.m. ET (2000 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed January 1 102.2 101.6- 102.5
Placed in December 103.2 100.5- 105.3
Marketed in December 105.2 103.9- 105.8
Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed
Jan. 1 in December in December
Allegiant Commodity Group 102.2 103.5 105.8
Allendale Inc. 102.5 104.1 103.9
HedgersEdge 102.4 104.4 105.7
Linn Group 102.2
105.3 104.8
Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 101.6 101.8 105.4
NFC Markets 101.8 100.5 104.8
Texas A&M Extension 102.0 102.0 105.7
U.S. Commodities 102.3 103.5 105.0
DJ USDA Cold
Storage: Totals-Jan 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork
bellies in freezers
totaled
68.015 million pounds, in December, 25.0% above the previous
month, and
61.0% above December 2018, the U.S. Department Agriculture
said
Wednesday.
In thousand pounds.
public
Dec 31 Nov 30
Dec 31 Nov 30 warehouse
2019 2019 2018 2018
stocks/Dec
pork
bellies 68,015 54,416
42,251 36,859
orange
juice 766,091 725,568
547,910 528,895
french
fries 945,969 954,826
944,230 962,841
other
potatoes 208,142 226,101
230,329 235,592
chicken rstr
(whole) 20,414 22,837
17,712 17,119
ham 84,981 110,635
73,118 96,375
total
pork 580,904 574,840
505,287 507,668 523,695
total
beef 481,012 478,261
495,624 514,698 471,180
total red
meat 1,102,839 1,092,584
1,045,603 1,069,331 1,033,870
total
chicken 962,255 979,323
881,626 929,136
total
turkey 233,147 221,996
302,763 274,166
total
poultry 1,198,049 1,204,338
1,187,331 1,206,251 1,131,645
===============================================================================
DJ IGC Raises Global Grain Production, Demand
Forecasts for 2019-20
By Joe
Wallace
The
International Grains Council raised its forecast for global grain production in
the 2019-20 season in a monthly report on Thursday, pointing to higher corn
output in the U.S. and China.
The
intergovernmental organization said the world would produce 2.17 billion metric
tons of grain, up from 2.14 billion tons in 2018-19 and seven million tons more
than it forecast in its December report.
Driving the
increase: a five-million ton lift to the IGC's forecast for Chinese corn
production, and a three-million ton boost to its forecast for the U.S. corn
crop.
The IGC
also raised its forecast for grain demand by six million tons to 2.19 billion
tons, which would leave the global grain market in a deficit for the third
consecutive year.
That could
lift agricultural prices, although any gains are likely to be tempered by ample
stockpiles of grain that have built up in previous seasons.
WHEAT:
General
Comments:
Wheat
markets were mostly lower yesterday in correction trading. Speculators keep buying based on the stronger
world prices but they chose the sell side yesterday on ideas that the market
had run far and was in need of a correction.
Chart patterns are bullish in all three markets and all are looking
forward to increased demand for US Wheat.
World markets rallied in the face of reduced production potential for
Australia and the Russian supply situation.
Russia has less Wheat this year and prices in the Black Sea region have
strengthened. The Ruble has also been firmer
against the US Dollar and this has also caused Russian prices to form in the
world market. World prices will still be
dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will
most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. The lack of production in Russia and in the
southern parts of the world means higher prices for now. US farmers planted less Wheat than any time
in the last 100 years so no real change in the world scenario of less supply is
indicated.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get some light and mixed precipitation
at the end of the week and then into the weekend. Temperatures should trend to near to above
normal this week and near to below normal this weekend. Northern areas should see mostly dry
conditions except for some light precipitation on Friday. Temperatures will average near to below
normal. The Canadian Prairies should see
mostly dry weather in the west and light snow in the east. Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with
objectives of 595 and 610 March. Support
is at 572, 560, and 557 March, with resistance at 583, 587, and 593 March. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 488, 481, and 477 March, with
resistance at 504, 510, and 513 March.
Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.
Support is at 553, 551, and 549 March, and resistance is at 560, 563,
and 566 March.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was slightly higher in subdued trading. The tone remains firm but some speculators
and producers have been selling.
Speculators have also been the best buyers. The weekly charts still display a bullish
market. Prices are profitable for
producers at this time. Some are also selling
the next crop and the trade and open interest in the September contract is
relatively large for the time of year.
More selling from producers of the next crop is expected on any further
rally attempts. Demand for US Rice
remains generally positive and the export sales pace in general has been very
good. Mills and exporters are having to
battle it out now for supplies with almost all of the Rice in Texas and
Louisiana spoken for. That makes
Arkansas as the lone provider of Rice in volume for the market.
Overnight News: The Delta should get showers
and rains tomorrow and again late in the week.
Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends
are mixed to up with objectives of 1379, 1390, and 1438 March. Support is at 1335, 1326, and 1316 March,
with resistance at 1349, 1364, and 1368 March.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed mixed, with nearby months
slightly higher and new crop months slightly lower. Oats closed a little lower yesterday. It was a consolidation trade in both markets. Demand and the lack of identified demand over
the short term is partly dictating the price action. Export demand has been disappointing and
ethanol and other industrial demand has started to improve but faces an
uncertain road ahead. Much of the
improved ethanol demand will be seen if and when China starts to buy. Feed demand was improved as seen in the
latest quarterly stocks report. That
report showed less supplies on hand than expected. There is little Corn available to the
domestic cash market. The market has
been short Corn as farmers have been holding and not selling.
Overnight News: USDA said that Guatemala bought
114,224 tons of current crop Corn and 29,774 tons of next crop Corn. Unknown destinations bought 141,000 tons of US
Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 382, and 379 March, and
resistance is at 392, 393, and 394 March.
Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 317, 319, and 321
March. Support is at 308, 304, and 301 March,
and resistance is at 316, 318, and 320 March.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower.
Soybean Oil was higher on the strength in Palm Oil. Soybeans were down on the lack of fresh
demand from China. China might not buy
Soybeans until after the Lunar New Year holiday. A lot will depend on the price of US Soybeans
and those from Brazil and Argentina.
Lower prices there will hurt overall demand here. China will return in the end to buy at least
as many Soybeans as it did before the trade war, but when is the main problem
and is compounded by good growing conditions and ideas of big crops in South
America. Many US producers have put
their Soybeans into storage and not selling.
This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of
Mexico.
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are down with objectives of 911, 907, and 894 March. Support is at 911, 903, and 890 March, and
resistance is at 922, 934, and 936 March.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 298.00,
297.00, and 291.00 March Support is at 296.00, 293.00, and 290.00 March,
and resistance is at 301.00, 304.00, and 307.00 March. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to down with
objectives of 3190 March. Support is at 3260,
3240, and 3200 March, with resistance at 3360, 3410, and 3440 March.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher along with
the price action in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. Demand from crushers is reported to be good and
crush margins are reported to be strong.
Farmers are not selling. Palm Oil
was lower in consolidation trading.
Prices are still being supported overall by the MPOA data showing less
production in the country. SGS showed
less export demand for Palm Oil so far this month.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 476.00, 474.00, and 473.00 March, with resistance at 481.00, 485.00, and 490.00
March. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to
up with objectives of 2980 and 3070 April.
Support is at 2890, 2820, and 2800 April, with resistance at 3000, 3040,
and 3050 April.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some rain and
snow late in the week and into the weekend.
Temperatures should average near normal.
|
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean Meal
|
Soybean Oil
|
|
January
|
+50 Mar
|
+164 Mar
|
+110 Mar
|
+52 Mar
|
+12 Mar
|
N/A
|
|
February
|
+58 Mar
|
|
+112 Mar
|
+46 Mar
|
|
|
|
March
|
+59 Mar
|
|
+112 Mar
|
+47 Mar
|
|
|
|
All basis levels are positive unless noted as
negative
|
|
|
|
|
DJ ICE Canada
Cash Grain Close - Jan 22
WINNIPEG--The following are the closing
cash canola prices from
ICE Futures
for Jan. 22, 2020.
Source:
ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC
Best Bid
Spot Price Basis
Contract Change
*Par Region 442.80 -34.00
Mar 2020 dn 4.20
Track Thunder
Bay 484.90 7.00
Mar 2020 up 1.10
Track
Vancouver 497.90 20.00
Mar 2020 up 1.10
All prices in
Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for
previous day
Source:
Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil -
January 23
The
following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT
Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are
quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel
oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul,
a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian
ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
765.00 -05.00 Unquoted
- -
Mar
762.50 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
Apr/May/Jun
732.50 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
Jul/Aug/Sep
700.00 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
767.50 -05.00 Unquoted
- -
Mar
765.00 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
Apr/May/Jun
735.00 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
Jul/Aug/Sep
702.50 -07.50 Unquoted
- -
RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
760.00 -15.00 Unquoted
- -
Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
700.00 -10.00 Unquoted
- -
Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
3,020.00 -40.00 Unquoted
- -
Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Feb
229.00 -06.00 Unquoted
- -
($1=MYR4.0680)
DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices,
Volume - Jan 23
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 66,904 lots, or 2.72 billion yuan
Open High Low
Close Prev. Settle
Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20
3,418 3,452 3,401
3,447 3,449 3,425
-24 29 1,257
May-20
4,089 4,096 4,043
4,060 4,055 4,065
10 64,589 97,554
Jul-20
- - -
4,043 4,043 4,043
0 0 27
Sep-20
3,994 4,004 3,960
3,967 3,965 3,976
11 2,262 15,695
Nov-20
3,838 3,838 3,810
3,810 3,818 3,817
-1 4 249
Jan-21
3,855 3,855 3,820
3,820 3,825 3,840
15 20 426
Corn
Turnover: 303,754 lots, or 5.83 billion yuan
Open High Low
Close Prev. Settle
Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20
1,880 1,882 1,867
1,870 1,875 1,872
-3 21,231 89,570
May-20
1,927 1,927 1,910
1,912 1,919 1,916
-3 244,746 652,293
Jul-20
1,949 1,949 1,937
1,939 1,946 1,942
-4 476 4,755
Sep-20
1,968 1,972 1,961
1,962 1,967 1,965
-2 36,635 186,197
Nov-20
1,984 1,986 1,978
1,980 1,986 1,981
-5 157 1,193
Jan-21
1,995 2,003 1,991
1,991 1,999 1,996
-3 509 3,301
Soymeal
Turnover: 1,100,120 lots, or 29.48 billion yuan
Open High Low
Close Prev. Settle
Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20
2,623 2,623 2,559
2,562 2,613 2,590 -23
87,462 95,241
May-20
2,679 2,682 2,635
2,640 2,679 2,660
-19 698,419 1,422,529
Jul-20
2,718 2,718 2,669
2,673 2,712 2,690
-22 1,128 5,144
Aug-20
2,726 2,736 2,726
2,736 2,752 2,731
-21 2 101
Sep-20
2,760 2,768 2,724
2,729 2,761 2,748
-13 309,481 1,073,476
Nov-20
2,790 2,790 2,751
2,759 2,791 2,762
-29 51 1,976
Dec-20
2,805 2,813 2,766
2,803 2,800 2,792
-8 17 219
Jan-21
2,812 2,815 2,773
2,781 2,806 2,802
-4 3,560 8,992
Palm Oil
Turnover: 1,465,464 lots, or 89.26 billion yuan
Open High Low
Close Prev. Settle
Ch. Vol Open
Settle Interest
Feb-20
6,518 6,700 6,518
6,644 6,534 6,650
116 38 139
Mar-20
6,484 6,508 6,392
6,446 6,306 6,440
134 54 491
Apr-20
- - -
6,188 6,060 6,188
128 0 9
May-20
6,110 6,186 6,004
6,094 5,974 6,102
128 1,402,347 454,570
Jun-20
6,054 6,054 5,918
5,918 5,882 5,968
86 6 9
Jul-20
6,004 6,030 5,908
5,978 5,936 5,968
32 7 302
Aug-20
5,864 5,864 5,682
5,682 5,806 5,772
-34 2 6
Sep-20
5,824 5,882 5,738
5,812 5,734 5,810
76 62,470 60,687
Oct-20
- - -
5,762 5,762 5,762
0 0 4
Nov-20
- - -
5,714 5,714 5,714
0 0 6
Dec-20
5,650 5,694 5,650
5,694 5,704 5,672
-32 2 83
Jan-21
5,674 5,748 5,630
5,678 5,616 5,682
66 538 1,284
Soybean Oil
Turnover: 584,921 lots, or 37.94 billion yuan
Open High
Low Close Prev.
Settle Ch. Vol
Open
Settle Interest
Mar-20
- - -
6,514 6,514 6,514
0 0
23
May-20
6,580 6,618 6,374
6,440 6,460
6,494 34 530,026
503,283
Jul-20
- - -
6,450 6,450 6,450
0 0 418
Aug-20
- - -
6,416 6,416 6,416
0 0 2
Sep-20 6,456 6,514
6,302 6,368 6,382
6,408 26 54,724
156,175
Nov-20
- - -
6,314 6,314 6,314
0 0 204
Dec-20
- - -
6,380 6,380 6,380
0 0 0
Jan-21
6,536 6,552 6,358
6,416 6,444 6,450
6 171 940
Notes:
1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous
settlement;
3) Volume and open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can
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