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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Wednesday, December 04, 2019

 

 


Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Dec 4

Source: CME Group  

                                      Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity                             Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL                          December   Dec. 05, 2019              319   Nov 29, 2019

SOYBEAN OIL                           December   Dec. 05, 2019              658   Dec 03, 2019

KC  HRW WHEAT                         December   Dec. 05, 2019               11   Dec 03, 2019

CORN                                  December   Dec. 05, 2019              129   Aug 05, 2019

OATS                                  December   Dec. 05, 2019               10   Nov 11, 2019

 

WHEAT                                 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were lower yesterday and were led lower by some speculative long liquidation in Chicago.  Minneapolis and HRW markets were weaker on ideas of plentiful supplies of higher protein Wheat in the world market.  SRW was weaker as ideas are that US Wheat is too high priced to compete in the world market.  Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand.  World prices have been stronger in the last couple of weeks but have not rallied nearly as much as the US futures market has.  World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales.  Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be near to above of normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow this weekend.  Temperatures will average above over he next few days, then below normal starting on Sunday.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather this week and some snow this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 522, 511, and 507 March, with resistance at 534, 539, and 546 March.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 436, 435, and 428 March, with resistance at 446, 451, and 456 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 508, 506, and 500 March, and resistance is at 522, 531, and 534 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was lower on some speculative long liquidation.  Futures have run a long way in just over a week.  The weekly charts are bullish but also show the chance for some selling to develop in the short term.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was very strong.  The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports.  The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.  Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but there is very little on offer from producers even with the current rally.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get dry weather.  Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1219, 1220, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1242, 1256, and 1264 January.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn closed mixed to slightly higher after trading both sides of unchanged.  Futures held well considering the bad export demand news tweeted out by the president.  He said that any China deal could wait until after the elections and that a delay might be preferable to an agreement now.  He also threatened a trade war with France, Brazil, and Argentina.  But the market held support and traded to new highs before backing down.  The moves helped support ideas that the market action of late last week was a sign of an exhausted down move.  The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.  That means that there I very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market.  Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been less, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn.  The charts show a new leg down getting started on Wednesday and then rejected on Friday.   

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 377, 373, and 370 March, and resistance is at 385, 387, and 389 March.  Trends in Oats are down with objectives of 295 March.  Support is at 301, 298, and 293 March, and resistance is at 310, 312, and 318 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were a little higher yesterday.  Soybeans have been working sharply lower for the past month as the market is tired of hearing about the potential US-China trade deal and wants to see the real thing. The president said that any China deal could wait until after the elections and that a delay might be preferable to an agreement now.  He also threatened a trade war with France, Brazil, and Argentina.   There does not seem to be any other news of interest to traders in the entire complex.  The US harvest is entering its final stages now and many producers are putting their Soybeans into storage and not selling.  This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. 

Overnight News:  Morocco bought 20,000 tons of US Soybean Oil.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives.  Support is at 868, 865, and 856 January, and resistance is at 883, 887, and 894 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 292.00 January.  Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 January, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 303.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2990, 2930, and 2890 January.  Support is at 3010, 2980, and 2950 January, with resistance at 3050, 3080, and 3130 January.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was higher on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil.  Prices are still in a range that has held for the week but trends have started to turn down.  Demand from crushers is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now.  Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with the outside markets.  USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in 40 years in its recent reports.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 451.00, 448.00, and 445.00 January, with resistance at 459.00, 466.00, and 468.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2770 February.  Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2470 February, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2710 February.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week.  Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

November

+54 Dec

+180 Dec

+95 Dec

+62 Jan

+12 Dec

N/A

December

+55 Dec

+95 Dec

+60 Jan

January

+55 Mar

+90 Mar

+57 Jan

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Dec 2

WINNIPEG -- The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures. 

Source: ICE Futures 

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          426.60    -30.00    Jan 2020     dn 1.30

Basis: Thunder Bay   462.10     10.00    Jan 2020     dn 4.50

Basis: Vancouver     470.10     18.00    Jan 2020     dn 4.50 

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne. 

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada

(news@marketsfarm.comm, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - December 4

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           667.50     +07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan           675.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Feb/Mar       680.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   670.00     +02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           670.00     +07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan           677.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Feb/Mar       682.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   672.50     +02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           670.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           550.00     +07.50      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           2,750.00   +30.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           212.00     +06.00      Unquoted   -        -  

($1=MYR4.1760)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Dec 04

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 392,068 lots, or 14.36 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Jan-20  3,452  3,485  3,431  3,478   3,407   3,457   50  175,568   110,768

Mar-20  3,505  3,549  3,499  3,537   3,481   3,524   43      144       168

May-20  3,811  3,866  3,795  3,848   3,758   3,826   68  202,216   144,220

Jul-20  3,850  3,885  3,850  3,885   3,810   3,870   60        8        48

Sep-20  3,860  3,926  3,857  3,917   3,822   3,890   68   14,102    16,394

Nov-20  3,850  3,856  3,832  3,847   3,850   3,844   -6       30        30  

Corn  

Turnover: 1,019,478 lots, or 19.05 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jan-20  1,831  1,833  1,820  1,829   1,827   1,825   -2  269,174    610,470

Mar-20  1,849  1,852  1,840  1,848   1,844   1,843   -1  145,180    612,246

May-20  1,898  1,900  1,885  1,896   1,892   1,891   -1  573,222  1,139,198

Jul-20  1,926  1,927  1,916  1,923   1,923   1,921   -2      720      9,772

Sep-20  1,956  1,958  1,943  1,954   1,949   1,950    1   29,372    140,056

Nov-20  1,963  1,970  1,961  1,965   1,964   1,965    1    1,810      1,394  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 2,266,136 lots, or 62.74 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Dec-19  2,780  2,780  2,780  2,780   2,780   2,780    0        100      3,000

Jan-20  2,855  2,858  2,831  2,834   2,830   2,839    9    346,702    679,940

Mar-20  2,778  2,792  2,772  2,775   2,770   2,778    8    111,712    470,932

May-20  2,765  2,768  2,736  2,740   2,747   2,747    0  1,552,626  2,835,992

Jul-20  2,774  2,775  2,756  2,756   2,769   2,768   -1        288      2,038

Aug-20  -          -      -  2,796   2,796   2,796    0          0        166

Sep-20  2,809  2,818  2,786  2,787   2,801   2,796   -5    254,654  1,336,428

Nov-20  2,807  2,808  2,796  2,802   2,814   2,803  -11         54         92  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 4,129,316 lots, or 23.50 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Dec-19  -          -      -  5,500   5,500   5,500    0          0         0

Jan-20  5,604  5,678  5,566  5,640   5,548   5,618   70  1,202,626   440,082

Feb-20  5,678  5,786  5,676  5,786   5,586   5,680   94        394     1,016

Mar-20  5,664  5,786  5,598  5,732   5,642   5,648    6        228        28

Apr-20  -          -      -  5,652   5,652   5,652    0          0         8

May-20  5,728  5,784  5,680  5,724   5,666   5,722   56  2,881,354   935,830

Jun-20  5,722  5,728  5,716  5,716   5,680   5,722   42         16        12

Jul-20  -          -      -  5,742   5,700   5,742   42          0       604

Aug-20  -          -      -  5,682   5,682   5,682    0          0         2

Sep-20  5,536  5,568  5,472  5,512   5,484   5,506   22     44,694    73,946

Oct-20  5,600  5,600  5,598  5,598   5,620   5,598  -22          4         4

Nov-20  -          -      -  5,484   5,504   5,484  -20          0        22  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 1,025,498 lots, or 63.96 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Dec-19  -          -      -  6,122   6,122   6,122    0        0         4

Jan-20  6,244  6,274  6,216  6,244   6,206   6,242   36  166,036   258,002

Mar-20  6,334  6,354  6,310  6,338   6,368   6,334  -34       20       724

May-20  6,232  6,278  6,208  6,240   6,202   6,238   36  819,568   888,784

Jul-20  -          -      -  6,236   6,236   6,236    0        0       530

Aug-20  -          -      -  6,198   6,198   6,198    0        0         0

Sep-20  6,186  6,224  6,152  6,196   6,142   6,190   48   39,874   214,082

Nov-20  -          -      -  6,176   6,176   6,176    0        0         2  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 



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