COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was lower after trading both sides of unchanged.  The market got some good news on Friday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales.  China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward.  China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil.  The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions.  Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much.  The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks and certified inventories have been steadily growing but will soon start to level off.  The market could hold to a sideways to weaker pattern until the tail end of the harvest.       

Overnight News:  The Delta should see mostly dry weather except for some light to moderate rain on Friday and near to above normal temperatures.  The Southeast should get mostly dry conditions until some light to moderate rain returns on Friday.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will be mostly above normal.  The USDA average price is now 60.09 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,257 ba1es, from 86,133 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 25 notices were posted against December contracts and that the total deliveries for the month are now 793 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6480, 6370, and 6270 March, with resistance of 6600, 6610, and 6690 March.

 

Crop Progress
Date	1-Dec	24-Nov	2018	Avg
Cotton Harvested	83	78	74	81
Corn Harvested	89	84	97	98
Soybeans Harvested	96	94	97	99
Sorghum Harvested	93	88	79	87
Sunflowers Harvested	65	56	81	94

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019              

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                    

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   232,326

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   29,723    47,005    47,050    54,881   109,084    87,024    16,475   218,678   219,613:   13,648    12,713

    : Changes from: November 19, 2019          (Change in open interest:     -20,044)         :

    :    4,538    -3,654    -5,289   -16,796    -9,478       510       900   -17,038   -17,521:   -3,006    -2,523

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     12.8      20.2      20.3      23.6      47.0      37.5       7.1      94.1      94.5:      5.9       5.5

    : Total Traders:   291          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       76        88        82        47        56        49        21       218       211:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was lower.  Overall chart patterns suggest that the trends are starting to turn down again.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 35% above last year.    

Overnight News:  Florida should get mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to below normal.   Brazil should get mostly dry weather and mixed temperatures. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with objectives of 93.00 and 81.00 January.  Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 103.00, and 104.00 January.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    21,025                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   10,599     7,708     1,188         0        70       653     7,520       152     1,756     1,045     2,319 :

: Changes from:     November 19, 2019                                                                          :

:     -134        93       -28         0         0       -16      -165         0        82         1        97 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     50.4      36.7       5.7       0.0       0.3       3.1      35.8       0.7       8.4       5.0      11.0 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    85                     :

:       24        14         6         0         .         .        24         .        17         9        11 :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were sharply higher in New York and a little higher in London.  The lack of offer, especially from Brazil but also from Central America, supported the market.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry.  The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from.  Peru is also too dry right now.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers in the short term.  Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start.  Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week.  Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering.  Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. 

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.081 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 113.03 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers on Thursday and temperatures on both sides of normal.  Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas, but trends are a little drier now.  ICE said that 0 contracts were delivered against December NY Coffee and that total deliveries for the month are now 228 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 116.00, 114.00, and 113.00 December, and resistance is at 123.00, 125.00 and 127.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.   Support is at 1360, 1340, and 1330 January, and resistance is at 1410, 1430, and 1440 January.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019              

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                        

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   331,999

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   28,225    35,817   100,666   115,299   168,615    76,075    18,487   320,265   323,586:   11,733     8,413

    : Changes from: November 19, 2019          (Change in open interest:      19,122)         :

    :   -1,498   -12,744    20,597     1,973    16,501     5,159       915    26,231    25,269:   -7,109    -6,147

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      8.5      10.8      30.3      34.7      50.8      22.9       5.6      96.5      97.5:      3.5       2.5

    : Total Traders:   423          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      123        97       139       117       110        46        28       357       321:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  Both markets closed lower despite rallies in Crude Oil and products and bullish demand ideas.  Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term.  Demand from Brazil mills could be mostly for Ethanol and that would hurt world Sugar production.  There are tight supplies in other countries as well.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers on Thursday.  Temperatures should be on both sides of normal.   

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1330 March.  Trends in London are mixed.  Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 331.00 March, and resistance is at 346.00, 348.00, and 351.00 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019              

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                    

CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,130,610

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :  120,633   239,020   214,127   396,968   518,466   314,335    96,958 1,046,064 1,068,571:   84,546    62,039

    : Changes from: November 19, 2019          (Change in open interest:      36,399)         :

    :    5,819    -9,188    12,174    17,537    39,209     7,286     1,303    42,817    43,499:   -6,417    -7,100

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     10.7      21.1      18.9      35.1      45.9      27.8       8.6      92.5      94.5:      7.5       5.5

    : Total Traders:   267          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       63        65        81        80        70        41        28       230       203:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures closed lower again in correction trading.  Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.  The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease.  Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. 

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.164 million bags.  ICE said that 0 contracts were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 248 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2530 and 2460 March.  Support is at 2510, 2480, and 2440 March, with resistance at 2610, 2670, and 2690 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1850 March.  Support is at 1840, 1820, and 1800 March, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1950 March.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 26, 2019              

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                          

CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   369,700

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   77,052    37,834   112,053   103,458   184,291    63,397    24,795   355,959   358,973:   13,741    10,727

    : Changes from: November 19, 2019          (Change in open interest:       5,731)         :

    :    5,277     2,067     9,985    -4,099       735     1,247      -876    12,410    11,911:   -6,679    -6,180

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :     20.8      10.2      30.3      28.0      49.8      17.1       6.7      96.3      97.1:      3.7       2.9

    : Total Traders:   252          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       88        62        89        37        43        37        22       217       175:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.

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