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MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Monday, December 02, 2019

 

 


Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Dec 2

Source: CME Group  

                Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity       Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL    December   Dec. 03, 2019              260   Nov 22, 2019

SOYBEAN OIL     December   Dec. 03, 2019             1270   Nov 25, 2019

KC  HRW WHEAT   December   Dec. 03, 2019               11   Nov 18, 2019

 

WHEAT                                 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were higher for the week and were led higher by Chicago SRW futures.  Minneapolis and HRW markets were weaker on ideas of plentiful supplies of higher protein Wheat in the world market.  SRW is finding some support on reduced production but also faces poor demand.  Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt the bull case for improved US Wheat demand.  World prices have been weaker in the last couple of weeks and this was seen by the Egyptian tender where even the EU could not compete with Russia and eastern Europe.  World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales.  Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more up pressure on prices this week.

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be on both sides of normal.  Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow.  Temperatures will moderate over he next few days.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather.  Temperatures should be mostly below normal but near to above normal by late this week.   

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of 548 and 562 March.  Support is at 533, 529, and 522 March, with resistance at 554, 561, and 574 March.  Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives of 454, 459, and 464 March.  Support is at 444, 436, and 435 March, with resistance at 451, 456, and 457 March.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed.  Support is at 512, 508, and 506 March, and resistance is at 522, 531, and 534 March.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was higher on Friday and higher for the week.  The weekly charts still display a bullish market and higher prices this week would be positive for the medium term.  Demand for US Rice remains generally positive and the weekly export sales report was very strong.  The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports.  The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in selling.  Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but anyone who needs to buy paddy Rice from farmers will be forced to pay higher prices after not finding much selling interest at all.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get dry weather.  Temperatures should be below normal but near to above normal this weekend.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are up with objectives of 1252 and 1299 January.  Support is at 1236, 1224, and 1214 January, with resistance at 1256, 1264, and 1276 January.

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn closed back inside the recent trading range after breaking down on Wednesday.  The moves seem related to First Notice Day as the market was probably anticipating big deliveries against the December contract but got none.  The speculative crowd might not get many deliveries either unless the prices rally by quite a bit.  The market has been short Corn as farmers have been holding.  That means that there I very little Corn available to the domestic and international cash market.  Ukraine has been selling and offers from Argentina have been less, but almost nothing is available here in the US and the US is still the king when it comes to Corn.  The charts show a new leg down getting started on Wednesday and then rejected on Friday.  It was a thin trade over the holiday, but one with potential meaning for bulls and bears. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 377, 373, and 370 March, and resistance is at 383, 387, and 392 March.  Trends in Oats are up with objectives of 322, 327, and 337 March.  Support is at 318, 313, and 311 March, and resistance is at 326, 329, and 332 March.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and the products were lower for the week.  The US harvest is entering its final stages now and many producers are putting their Soybeans into storage and not selling.  This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico.  Domestic demand was strong in the NOPA data.  The market was also affected by news headlines about the trade talks with China.  Word most of the week that a Phase One deal was progressing well and that tariffs on both sides would be cut back as a part of any deal helped support futures for much of the week.  USDA showed that China continued to be a strong buyer in the US market in its weekly reports on Friday.  The market has not been that strong given the great export sales reports and news of more sales on the daily system. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are down with no objectives.  Support is at 875, 868, and 865 January, and resistance is at 887, 894, and 896 January.  Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 292.00 January.  Support is at 292.00, 289.00, and 286.00 January, and resistance is at 297.00, 301.00, and 303.00 January.  Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 2990 and 2890 January.  Support is at 3030, 3010, and 2980 January, with resistance at 3080, 3130, and 3160 January.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher on a lack of trading interest and on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil.  Prices are still in a range that has held for the week.  Demand from crushers is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now.  Palm Oil was lower on signs of export weakness amid increased import tariffs being charged by India.  The market was expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data and they got it.  Price action is very strong.  USDA projected world vegetable oils ending stocks at the lowest level in40 years on Friday.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2770 February.  Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2470 February, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2710 February.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Some light rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week.  Temperatures should average below normal but will moderate into the weekend.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

November

+57 Dec

+180 Dec

+95 Dec

+59 Jan

+12 Dec

N/A

December

+57 Dec

+102 Dec

+57 Jan

January

+53 Mar

+90 Mar

+57 Jan

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Nov 15

ICE Canola Cash Close

     By MarketsFarm

     WINNIPEG, Nov. 15 (MarketsFarm) - The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Friday, Nov. 15

   Source:  ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

               Spot Price     Basis    Contract     Change

*Par Region         432.00    -30.00    Nov 2019   up  0.20

Track Thunder Bay   472.50     10.00    Nov 2019   up  0.50

Track Vancouver     480.50     18.00    Nov 2019   up  0.50 

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - December 2

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Monday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           652.50     -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan           662.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Feb/Mar       675.00     +02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   665.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           655.00     -07.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan           665.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Feb/Mar       677.50     +02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Apr/May/Jun   667.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           655.00     -07.50      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           540.00      00.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           2,700.00   -20.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Dec           204.00     +01.00      Unquoted   -        -  

($1=MYR4.1785)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Dec 02

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 135,452 lots, or 4.69 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.     Vol      Open

                                    Settle                       Interest

Jan-20  3,368  3,385  3,366  3,385   3,366   3,376   10  97,186   139,848

Mar-20  3,425  3,457  3,425  3,440   3,440   3,444    4      16       120

May-20  3,676  3,695  3,676  3,690   3,675   3,684    9  35,908   105,530

Jul-20  -          -      -  3,735   3,733   3,735    2       0        56

Sep-20  3,765  3,773  3,748  3,769   3,757   3,761    4   2,342    13,880

Nov-20  -          -      -  3,782   3,782   3,782    0       0         0  

Corn  

Turnover: 883,974 lots, or 16.47 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Jan-20  1,829  1,833  1,817  1,823   1,820   1,824    4  373,362    742,682

Mar-20  1,852  1,854  1,843  1,847   1,845   1,846    1   74,246    609,528

May-20  1,901  1,903  1,885  1,892   1,891   1,893    2  402,912  1,096,884

Jul-20  1,925  1,926  1,918  1,923   1,924   1,921   -3      354      9,528

Sep-20  1,954  1,959  1,944  1,952   1,950   1,951    1   32,928    136,666

Nov-20  1,976  1,976  1,963  1,968   1,967   1,968    1      172        784  

Soymeal

Turnover: 2,485,240 lots, or 68.92 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Dec-19  2,769  2,769  2,747  2,747   2,808   2,753  -55         16      3,000

Jan-20  2,842  2,844  2,813  2,822   2,837   2,826  -11    407,764    797,482

Mar-20  2,794  2,797  2,763  2,767   2,778   2,774   -4    106,368    466,372

May-20  2,774  2,775  2,736  2,743   2,754   2,750   -4  1,564,796  2,761,210

Jul-20  2,791  2,791  2,761  2,763   2,776   2,766  -10        160      2,082

Aug-20  2,790  2,801  2,775  2,784   2,804   2,790  -14         28        166

Sep-20  2,829  2,836  2,792  2,797   2,813   2,805   -8    406,078  1,228,800

Nov-20  2,825  2,825  2,802  2,802   2,827   2,814  -13         30         38  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 3,958,588 lots, or 22.25 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol      Open

                                    Settle                          Interest

Dec-19  -          -      -  5,500   5,500   5,500    0          0         0

Jan-20  5,556  5,606  5,488  5,552   5,536   5,556   20  2,213,080   472,882

Feb-20  5,656  5,656  5,586  5,600   5,624   5,606  -18         24       712

Mar-20  5,648  5,648  5,648  5,648   5,632   5,648   16          2        16

Apr-20  -          -      -  5,652   5,652   5,652    0          0         8

May-20  5,746  5,776  5,622  5,692   5,728   5,702  -26  1,707,874   812,572

Jun-20  5,680  5,680  5,680  5,680   5,708   5,680  -28          2        10

Jul-20  -          -      -  5,700   5,700   5,700    0          0       604

Aug-20  -          -      -  5,682   5,682   5,682    0          0         2

Sep-20  5,552  5,594  5,456  5,514   5,566   5,524  -42     37,606    69,844

Oct-20  -          -      -  5,670   5,670   5,670    0          0         6

Nov-20  -          -      -  5,616   5,658   5,616  -42          0         2  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 1,183,128 lots, or 73.74 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Dec-19  -          -      -  6,122   6,122   6,122    0        0         4

Jan-20  6,278  6,286  6,190  6,204   6,260   6,236  -24  265,174   305,976

Mar-20  -          -      -  6,368   6,368   6,368    0        0       724

May-20  6,276  6,294  6,180  6,204   6,270   6,232  -38  867,172   858,338

Jul-20  -          -      -  6,236   6,270   6,236  -34        0       530

Aug-20  -          -      -  6,198   6,234   6,198  -36        0         0

Sep-20  6,218  6,242  6,126  6,150   6,218   6,192  -26   50,782   207,116

Nov-20  -          -      -  6,280   6,280   6,280    0        0         0  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 



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