COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was a little higher last week.  The market got some good news on Friday as USDA reported another strong week of export sales.  China was included as a buyer which has been considered important for Cotton demand moving forward.  China has also been buying Cotton from Brazil as it needs higher quality Cotton to blend with its domestic production.  The market has not been able to move a lot in terms of price for the last month as the harvest has been ongoing amid some stressful conditions.  Last week featured very cold temperatures and some worry about quality but not enough to affect prices much.  The harvest will start to wind down over the next couple of weeks and certified inventories have been steadily growing but will soon start to level off.  The market could hold to a sideways to weaker pattern until the tail end of the harvest.       

Overnight News:  The Delta should see dry weather and near to above normal temperatures, but trending to near to above normal by early next week.  The Southeast should get some showers today and tomorrow then turn dry.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures will be mostly above normal.  The USDA average price is now 60.65 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 86,133 ba1es, from 85,510 bales yesterday.  ICE said that 10 notices were posted against December contracts and that the total deliveries for the month are now 768 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed.  Support is at 6510, 6480, and 6370 March, with resistance of 6610, 6690, and 6710 March.

 

DJ On-Call Cotton - Nov 29

   As of Nov 22. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC

   *-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week.

              Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

             Sales                     Purchases

Dec 19           70     7,035   -6,965         24    15,893 -15,869

Mar 20       36,579    34,943    1,636     25,620    15,979   9,641

May 20       15,174    14,888      286      1,470     1,473      -3

Jul 20       18,963    18,688      275      3,127     3,111      16

Oct 20            0         0        0          0         0       0

Dec 20       13,854    13,740      114     20,268    20,056     212

Mar 21        4,966     4,929       37        967       967       0

May 21        2,063     1,726      337        147         0     147

Jul 21        3,270     3,097      173         66         0      66

Oct 21           71         0       71          0         0       0

Dec 21          669       511      158      1,197     1,043     154

Mar 22          440       440        0          0         0       0

Dec 22            0         0        0          7         7       0

Dec 23            0         0        0          7         7       0

Total        96,119    99,997   -3,878     52,900    58,536  -5,636

              Open      Open   Change

               Int       Int 

Dec 19        1,222    28,045  -26,823

Mar 20      122,965   127,956   -4,991

May 20       30,745    29,162    1,583

Jul 20       16,336    16,390      -54

Oct 20            5         4        1

Dec 20       24,264    24,052      212

Mar 21        1,048     1,062      -14

May 21          185       196      -11

Jul 21          340       329       11

Oct 21            0         0        0

Dec 21          202       202        0

Mar 22            1         1        0

Dec 22            0         0        0

Dec 23            0         0        0

Total       197,313   227,399  -30,086

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was a little lower for the week in narrow range trading.  Overall chart patterns suggest that the market is in a trading range.  Futures had held the same range since April.  USDA showed strong production last month at more than 77 million boxes of Oranges from Florida and demand remains weaker.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been bearish.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no severe storms so far this year.  Many areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 35% above last year.    

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers this week and mostly dry weather this weekend.  Temperatures will average mostly above normal but below normal this weekend.   Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 99.00, 96.00, and 95.00 January, with resistance at 101.00, 102.00, and 104.00 January.

 

DJ Florida FCOJ Movement and Pack - Dec 2

In mm ps, (million pounds solid). Source: Florida Department of Citrus (FDOC)

WEEK ENDING:

11/16/2019                                  Corresponding

                              Current        Week Last

                                 Week           Season

                            11/16/2019       11/17/2018   % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            284.66           211.06      34.9%

Retail/Institutional              6.22             6.01       3.6%

Total                           290.88           217.07      34.0%  

Pack

Bulk                              0.59             0.70     -16.2%

Retail/Institutional              1.18             1.17       0.9%

Total Pack                        1.77             1.87      -5.5%

Reprocessed                      -1.68            -1.74      -3.5%

Pack from Fruit                   0.09             0.13     -32.5%  

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                  0.05            -0.03      87.4%

Imports - Foreign                 0.23             1.41     -83.6%

Domestic Receipts                 0.00             0.03    -100.0%

Receipts of Florida Product

 from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           1.27             0.00         NA

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.02             0.04     -49.4%  

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            285.14           211.47      34.8%

Retail/Institutional              7.40             7.18       3.1%

Total                           292.54           218.65      33.8%  

MOVEMENT

Bulk

Domestic                          4.18             5.46     -23.4%

Exports                           0.32             0.02    1263.2%

Total (Bulk)                      4.50             5.48     -17.9%  

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          1.31             1.39      -5.8%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               1.31             1.39      -5.8%

Total Movement                    5.81             6.87     -15.5%  

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            280.64           205.99      36.2%

Retail/Institutional              6.09             5.79       5.3%

Ending Inventory                286.73           211.78      35.4%  

                                            Total Same

                         Total Season      Period Last

                              To Date           Season

                             16-Nov-19        17-Nov-18  % Change

CARRY OVER, RECEIPT & PACK

Carry Over

Bulk                            311.95           237.21      31.5%

Retail/Institutional              5.82             5.92      -1.6%

Total                           317.77           243.13      30.7%  

Pack

Bulk                              2.42             5.19     -53.4%

Retail/Institutional              8.95             8.22       8.9%

Total Pack                       11.37            13.41     -15.2%

Reprocessed                     -11.04           -12.95     -14.8%

Pack from Fruit                   0.33             0.46     -27.6%  

Receipts & Losses

Net Gain or Loss                 -0.06            -0.45     -86.6%

Imports - Foreign                 3.42            12.93     -73.6%

Domestic Receipts                 1.56             0.05    3042.3%

Receipts of Florida Product

 from Non-Reporting Entit         0.00             0.00         NC

Chilled OJ used in FCOJ           1.59             0.24     574.8%

Reprocessed FCTJ                  0.13             0.13      -0.5%  

Total Carry Over, Receipt & Pack

Bulk                            309.96           242.35      27.9%

Retail/Institutional             14.78            14.14       4.5%

Total                           324.74           256.48      26.6%  

MOVEMENT

Bulk                             27.00            34.49     -21.7%

Domestic                          2.32             1.86      24.7%

Exports                          29.32            36.36     -19.3%

Total (Bulk)  

Retail/Institutional

Domestic                          8.68             8.35       4.0%

Exports                           0.00             0.00         NC

Total (Retail/Inst)               8.68             8.35       4.0%

Total Movement                   38.01            44.71     -15.0%  

ENDING INVENTORY

Bulk                            280.64           205.99      36.2%

Retail/Institutional              6.09             5.79       5.3%

Ending Inventory                286.73           211.78      35.4%

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were higher for the week in New York and a little higher in London.  Rains were reported in Brazil Coffee areas to help ideas of big production in the coming year, but overall it remains dry.  The Brazilian crop is developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to sell.  It is dry in other parts of Latin America as well.  Central America has had less than normal rains, especially in Honduras where a large part of the deliverable stocks come from.  Peru is also too dry right now.  The Asian harvest is underway but producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide profits.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee.  Reports from Brazil indicate that flowering is off to a very good start.  Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this week.  Overall the Coffee areas remain in a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering.  Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. 

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.119 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 107.20 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend and above normal temperatures.  Scattered showers are forecast for next week.  Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas, but trends are a little drier now.  ICE said that 3 contracts were delivered against December NY Coffee and that total deliveries for the month are now 228 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 105.00, 104.00, and 103.00 December, and resistance is at 108.00, 110.00 and 111.00 December.  Trends in London are mixed to up with no objectives.   Support is at 1380, 1360, and 1340 January, and resistance is at 1430, 1460, and 1480 January.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short      Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  136,751       80,444        69,140         9,174        3,972        2,058  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        58.8%        50.6%          6.7%          2.9%          1.5%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    149           54           41            13             6            10  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

    5,313        22,736       11,472     2,166        4,354      18,632  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

    3.9%         16.6%          8.4%     1.6%         3.2%          13.6%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     16            28            20       13           9             18  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   7,492      4,387  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   5.5%       3.2%

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  Both markets closed higher for the week.  Overall charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term.  Reports indicate that little is on offer from India.  Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area and erratic rains during the monsoon season.  There is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or later.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  However, these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and exporters.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  The Real has been trading near recent lows against the US Dollar and this should encourage export sales from Brazil as well. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers this week and dry weather this weekend.  Scattered showers are forecast for next week.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.   

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are up with objectives of 1350 March.  Support is at 1260, 1240, and 1230 March, and resistance is at 1300, 1320, and 1330 March.  Trends in London are mixed to up with objectives of 348.00 and 358.00 March.  Support is at 340.00, 335.00, and 331.00 March, and resistance is at 348.00, 351.00, and 356.00 March.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                  Processor/User                      Swap Dealers  

     OI          Long         Short          Long         Short      Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe  

   78,519       34,831        49,904         9,042        1,130        1,914  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        44.4%        63.6%         11.5%          1.4%          2.4%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    132           48           38             9             4             6  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

   17,273        14,102        5,330     3,956        1,199       2,174  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   22.0%         18.0%          6.8%     5.0%         1.5%          2.8%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     21            22            12       10           7             11  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   3,999      2,766  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   5.1%       3.5%

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures closed lower and the long awaited correction down has begun.  Harvest is now active in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected.  Ideas are that demand is currently very strong due to the current price action.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region.  Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above year ago levels.  The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.  The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease.  Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and are inviting Nigeria and Cameroon into the minimum pricing system they are creating.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will be near to above normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.164 million bags.  ICE said that 16 contracts were posted for delivery against December contracts and that total deliveries for the month are now 95 contracts. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are down with objectives of 2530 and 2460 March.  Support is at 2540, 2510, and 2480 March, with resistance at 2610, 2670, and 2690 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 1880 and 1850 March.  Support is at 1870, 1840, and 1820 March, with resistance at 1910, 1930, and 1950 March.

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 11/26/2019  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

               Producer/Merchant/

                 Processor/User                       Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long        Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Cocoa Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  436,551       186,305      293,977        38,699       16,108       32,333  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        42.7%        67.3%          8.9%          3.7%          7.4%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    168           48           52            16             8            12  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long          Short      Spreading   Long         Short     Spreading

===============================================================================  

   80,412         2,737       38,645     6,161        1,454      49,201

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   18.4%          0.6%          8.9%     1.4%         0.3%          11.3%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     46            6             15       16           13            26

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   4,795      2,095  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   1.1%       0.5%

 

 

 

 

 

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