Grains Comments 11/19/2019

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ USDA Grain Inspections for Export in Metric Tons - Nov 18

COUNTRY OF DESTINATION IS REPORTED AS KNOWN AT THE TIME OF EXPORTATION.

INFORMATION CONTAINED IN THIS REPORT REFLECTS EXPORTED GRAIN INSPECTED AND

WEIGHED THROUGH THE AUTHORITY UNDER THE U.S. GRAIN STANDARDS ACT.

NO ADDITIONAL ANALYSIS, COMPILATIONS OR DATA IS AVAILABLE.

GRAINS INSPECTED AND/OR WEIGHED FOR EXPORT

REPORTED IN WEEK ENDING NOV 14, 2019

-- METRIC TONS --

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

CURRENT PREVIOUS

----------- WEEK ENDING ---------- MARKET YEAR MARKET YEAR

GRAIN 11/14/2019 11/07/2019 11/15/2018 TO DATE TO DATE

BARLEY 0 3,593 245 15,401 5,751

CORN 637,397 581,856 845,957 4,980,464 11,984,297

FLAXSEED 0 0 0 172 194

MIXED 0 0 0 0 0

OATS 0 122 0 920 1,294

RYE 0 0 0 0 0

SORGHUM 44,647 25,486 56,888 445,663 228,573

SOYBEANS 1,532,991 1,347,115 1,110,906 12,435,954 11,089,344

SUNFLOWER 0 0 0 0 0

WHEAT 449,304 539,724 509,900 11,919,986 9,819,275

Total 2,664,339 2,497,896 2,523,896 29,798,560 33,128,728

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CROP MARKETING YEARS BEGIN JUNE 1 FOR WHEAT, RYE, OATS, BARLEY AND

FLAXSEED; SEPTEMBER 1 FOR CORN, SORGHUM, SOYBEANS AND SUNFLOWER SEEDS.

INCLUDES WATERWAY SHIPMENTS TO CANADA.

Crop Progress
Date	17-Nov	10-Nov	2018	Avg
Cotton Harvested	68	62	58	66
Corn Harvested	76	66	89	92
Soybeans Harvested	91	85	91	95
Sorghum Harvested	93	88	79	87
Sunflowers Harvested	47	44	68	83
Peanuts Harvested	93	89	85	90
Winter Wheat Planted	95	92	92	95
Winter Wheat Emerged	83	78	80	86

Crop Condition
	Very Poor	Poor	Fair	Good	Excellent
Winter Wheat This Week	4	10	34	41	11
Winter Wheat Last Week	3	10	33	43	11
Winter Wheat Last Year	2	9	33	46	10

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were mostly higher yesterday on hopes for some new demand from Africa and on ideas that the crop might have been damaged last week. There are tenders expected from Algeria and Tunisia this week and there is a chance that the US can participate, but if not at least there is some new world demand showing. USDA did show some deterioration in its reports last night but the crop remains in good condition overall. Minneapolis and HRW markets were the weakest on ideas of plentiful supplies of higher protein Wheat in the world market. SRW is finding some support on reduced production and some demand hopes. Production increases in the northern parts of the world are greater than production decreases in southern countries and that has hurt hopes for improved US Wheat demand. World prices will still be dictated by what happens in Europe and the Black Sea area and US prices will most likely remain a follower as the US tries to compete for sales. Chart patterns on daily and weekly charts imply more down pressure on prices this week.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions or light precipitation over the middle of the week. Temperatures should be near top above normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures will average near top above. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 501, 497, and 493 December. Support is at 501, 499, and 497 December, with resistance at 511, 517, and 522 December. Trends in Kansas City are down with objectives of 408 and 392 December. Support is at 414, 410, and 401 December, with resistance at 425, 432, and 437 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 496 December. Support is at 502, 500, and 492 December, and resistance is at 515, 524, and 529 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher yesterday after finding some support on Friday near the recent lows. It was a gap higher day yesterday and the market should try to hold the rally attempt. However, it is possible that traders will try to fill the gap before the rally can resume.. The weekly charts still display a bullish market and higher prices this week would be positive for the medium term. The export sales pace in general has been very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending stocks estimate in future reports. The US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real interested in buying or selling. Mills and exporters are thought to be covered but anyone who needs to buy paddy Rice from farmers will be forced not find much selling interest at all.

Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be near to above normal.

Chart Analysis : Trends are mixed. Support is at 1196, 1191, and 1183 January, with resistance at 1220, 1230, and 1236 January.

DJ US and South Korea Reach Deal for Rice Exports -- Market Talk

1052 ET - The US and South Korea have entered into an agreement to allow US rice greater market access in Korea, the USDA announced. The deal will allow 132,304 tons of US rice --- an annual value of roughly $110M -- to enter and be sold in Korea. The deal makes it so US rice exports are now guaranteed to constitute roughly a third of the rice allowed into Korea at an in-quota 5% duty, with the rest of that amount being covered by imports from Australia, China, Thailand, and Vietnam. When imported rice exceeds the quote, that duty soars to 513%, according to the USDA. US rice production is expected to drop slightly this year, to 187.9 million cwt, according to USDA data. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

CORN AND OATS

General Comments : Corn was lower and Oats closed a little lower on ideas of weak Corn demand and on weakness in Soybeans. Trends are down on the daily charts for Corn. Oats shows the potential for a double top to form on the daily charts. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and the lack of demand. USDA showed that the Corn harvest moved along but at a slow pace due to the bad Midwestern weather last week. It looks more and more like some of the Corn will not get harvested this year unless the weather improves. It is not as cold but there will be chances for precipitation off and on this week to keep progress slow. Ethanol demand is improved but export demand remains weak. Feed demand should be strong right now as it has been very cold in the Great Plains and Midwest. Warmer temperatures have returned to the Great Plains but Midwest temperatures remain below normal although are much warmer than last week. Producers are about done with the Soybeans harvest and many are back harvesting Corn. Reports still indicate wide variability in yields. USDA is still expected to drop yields and production in its January reports. The problem for Corn is the demand and US Corn remains high priced in the world market.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 191,000 tons of US Corn.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 365, 359, and 352 December. Support is at 368, 365, and 363 December, and resistance is at 373, 375, and 378 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 298, 288, and 283 December. Support is at 297, 295, and 294 December, and resistance is at 304, 308, and 313 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower in response to reports that the Chinese are pessimistic about getting a trade deal done. They say the US has moved the goal posts after agreeing to mutually cut tariffs as China bought US agricultural goods. Chinese importers report that customs officials and other port authorities there have made unloading Soybeans and other ag products more difficult. Soybean Oil was higher as any loss of Soybeans demand would probably mean more demand for vegetable oils. The US harvest is entering its final stages now and many producers are putting their Soybeans into storage and not selling. This has caused basis levels to firm in the country and at the Gulf of Mexico. Domestic demand was strong in the NOPA data on Friday and implied that USDA might have been too quick to cut crusher demand in its monthly supply and demand estimates released a couple of weeks ago.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to down with objectives of 913, 910 and 893 January. Support is at 912, 906, and 904 January, and resistance is at 925, 927, and 929 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 313.00, 317.00, and 320.00 December. Support is at 302.00, 300.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3020 December. Support is at 3020, 3000, and 2980 December, with resistance at 3100, 3140, and 3150 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was a little higher on a lack of trading interest and on price action in Chicago Soybean Oil. A stronger Canadian Dollar kept some speculators on the sell side of Canola. Prices are still in a range that has held for more than a week. Demand from crushers is reported to be good but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now. Palm Oil was higher on news of two big tenders for Malaysian Palm Oil. It is a positive demand signal and combined with reduced stocks makes for an interesting market even at the current higher levels. The market is expecting MPOB to show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data again in the next report.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00, and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 2690 and 2770 February. Support is at 2580, 2520, and 2470 February, with resistance at 2630, 2680, and 2710 February.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light rain or snow over the middle of this week otherwise dry. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
November	+54 Dec	+180 Dec	+95 Dec	+62 Jan	+12 Dec	N/A
December	+55 Dec		+95 Dec	+60 Jan
January	+55 Mar		+90 Mar	+57 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Nov 18

By MarketsFarm

WINNIPEG, Nov. 18 (MarketsFarm) - The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Monday, Nov. 18.

Source: ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price Basis Contract Change

*Par Region 432.50 -30.00 Nov 2019 up 0.50

Track Thunder Bay 473.50 10.00 Nov 2019 up 1.00

Track Vancouver 481.50 18.00 Nov 2019 up 1.00

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - November 19

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Tuesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports