MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Thursday,
November 14, 2019
DJ CBOT Delivery
Intentions: Totals - Nov 14
Source: CME
Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month
Delivery Day Assigned
Today Date Available
SOYBEAN November
Nov. 15, 2019
214 Nov 13, 2019
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat
markets were
lower and the Chicago markets gave back all of the Tuesday rally. It was another day for record cold in much of
the Great Plains and Midwest and some of the newly planted and emerged Winter
Wheat could be damaged or worse.
However, there have been no reports of losses so far. The areas most at risk are the areas where
Wheat was planted first so it was the HRW market that moved the most. Temperatures
will start to moderate now but any damage to be done is done. World prices remain stable and this has hurt
the potential for the markets to rally much.
There is still enough competition from Europe and Russia that US export
demand is thought to stay weak.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be on both sides of
normal. Northern areas should see mostly
dry conditions or a little light snow.
Temperatures will moderate over he next few days. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry
weather. Temperatures should be mostly below
normal but near to above normal by late this week.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December,
with resistance at 509, 517, and 522 December.
Trends in Kansas City are mixed.
Support is at 418, 416, and 414 December, with resistance at 432, 437,
and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis
are mixed to down with objectives of 516, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 515, 514, and 510 December, and
resistance is at 524, 529, and 532 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was a little lower yesterday.
Trading volumes remain low and it looks like the Rice futures market is
mirroring the cash market. USDA showed a
slight decrease in ending stocks due to slightly reduced production last week
and is expected to cut production again in January. Demand for US Rice remains generally positive
although the weekly export sales report was not that strong last week. The export sales pace in general has been
very good and USDA could be forced to increase export demand and cut ending
stocks estimate in future reports. The
US domestic market is now quiet with the harvest mostly done and no one real
interested in selling. Mills and
exporters are thought to be covered.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal but near
to above normal this weekend.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1174, and 1158 January,
with resistance at 1200, 1210, and 1213 January.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and
the lack of demand but harvest progress ideas has been a little slower this
week with the very cold weather seen in the Midwest. The cold and snow will make harvest more
difficult. Farmers have been slow
to harvest the Corn and have concentrated on Soybeans. Many producers say that the Corn is not
drying down quickly and they are leaving it out in hopes that nature will help
the progress along. Producers hope to
avoid the use of artificial drying in order to save money. There is still a lot of Corn out in the
fields but the temperatures are expected to moderate the rest of this week and
that might allow for more rapid harvest if the producer wants. Some will elect to leave the Corn out in
order to get as much natural drying as possible and some who got more snow will
need to wait for soils to firm. Ideas
are that feed demand is increasing with the current cold weather, but export
and ethanol demand remain big questions.
Export demand in particular has been poor as world prices are generally
below those of the US.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed to down with
objectives of 365, 359, and 357 December.
Support is at 373, 370, and 368 December, and resistance is at 378, 382,
and 384 December. Trends in Oats are
mixed to up with objectives of 310, 320, and 334 December. Support is at 301, 297, and 295 December, and
resistance is at 309, 314, and 317 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and products were slightly lower after trading both sides of
unchanged on ideas of improving weather
conditions in Brazil and uncertain demand.
Brazil has been seeing better rains and there are forecasts now calling
for improved rains in Argentina. USDA
released its weekly crop progress reports and the producers are getting close
to the end of the Soybeans harvest. Some
artificial drying is being used but at least the crops are coming out. The market was affected by news headlines
about the trade talks with China. Word
that a Phase One deal was progressing well and that tariffs on both sides would
be cut back as a part of any deal is still around but traders want to see
something fixed at last. The latest word is that China
does not want to commit to specific dollar or volume amounts in a trade agreement
and both sides are negotiating these points.
Overnight
News: China bought 129,000 tons of US Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are down with objectives of 913, 910 and 893 January. Support is at 912, 906, and 904 January, and
resistance is at 922, 925, and 927 January.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.
Support is at 302.00, 300.00, and 299.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00,
309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in
Soybean Oil are down with objectives of 3020 December. Support is at 3050, 3020, and 3000 December,
with resistance at 3100, 3140, and 3150 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on a
lack of trading interest and on price action in Chicago. Demand from crushers is reported to be good
but there is a lot of Canola in the pipeline right now.. Palm Oil was higher on news that Malaysia had
signed trade deals with China (1.5 million tons) and South Asia (1.0 million
tons). The market was expecting MPOB to
show short production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data and they
got it. Price action is very strong. USDA projected world vegetable oils ending
stocks at the lowest level in40 years on Friday.
Overnight News: AmSpec said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports
are 414,020 tons so far this month, up 12% from last month. SGS said that exports are 425,010 tons, from
375,117 tons last month.
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00,
and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil
are mixed to up with objectives of 2670 and 2840 January. Support is at 2560, 2510, and 2500 January,
with resistance at 2650, 2680, and 2710 January.
DJ Malaysia's October Palm Oil Exports 1.64M Tons;
Up 16% -MPOB
Malaysia's
palm oil exports were up 16% on month at 1.64 million metric tons in October,
the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the October crop data
and revised numbers for September, issued by MPOB:
October
September Change
On Month
Crude Palm
Oil Output 1,795,880 1,842,433
Dn 2.53%
Palm
Oil Exports 1,641,743 1,410,023
Up 16.43%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 99,601
88,311 Up
12.78%
Closing Stocks 2,348,066 2,448,528
Dn 4.1%
Crude Palm Oil 1,323,696
1,353,343 Dn 2.19%
Processed Palm Oil 1,024,370 1,095,185
Dn 6.47%
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light
rain or snow over the weekend but dry this week. Temperatures should average below normal but
will moderate into the weekend.
US
Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean
Meal
|
Soybean
Oil
|
November
|
+57
Dec
|
+180
Dec
|
+95
Dec
|
+59
Jan
|
+12
Dec
|
N/A
|
December
|
+57
Dec
|
|
+102
Dec
|
+57
Jan
|
|
|
January
|
+53
Mar
|
|
+90
Mar
|
+57
Jan
|
|
|
All basis levels are positive unless noted as
negative
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
DJ ICE Canada
Cash Grain Close - Nov 13
By MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Nov. 13 (MarketsFarm) - The
following are the closing
cash canola
prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday, Nov. 13
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC
Best Bid
Spot Price Basis
Contract Change
*Par
Region 433.30 -30.00
Nov 2019 up 2.10
Track Thunder
Bay 472.10 10.00
Nov 2019 dn 1.20
Track
Vancouver 480.10
18.00 Nov 2019 dn
1.20
All prices in
Canadian dollars per metric ton.
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - November 14
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker
Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 637.50
+02.50 Unquoted -
-
Dec 642.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 650.00
-05.00 Unquoted -
-
Apr/May/Jun 650.00
-05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 640.00 +02.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 645.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 652.50
-05.00 Unquoted -
-
Apr/May/Jun 652.50
-05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 630.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 515.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 2,560.00 +20.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 170.00 +03.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1550)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Nov 14
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 147,846
lots, or 5.08 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 3,276
3,276 3,276 0
0 0
Jan-20 3,404
3,409 3,383 3,403
3,403 3,394 -9
129,054 157,582
Mar-20 3,439
3,441 3,439 3,441
3,456 3,440 -16
8 68
May-20 3,710
3,710 3,683 3,699
3,703 3,693 -10
17,936 87,358
Jul-20 3,763
3,763 3,733 3,747
3,752 3,751 -1
8 50
Sep-20 3,778
3,778 3,760 3,769
3,781 3,769 -12
840 10,602
Corn
Turnover:
909,434 lots, or 17.02 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 1,837
1,822 1,837 15
0 0
Jan-20 1,843
1,852 1,840 1,840
1,841 1,845 4
590,222 1,266,212
Mar-20 1,875
1,887 1,875 1,879
1,878 1,881 3
80,986 568,956
May-20 1,920
1,929 1,919 1,921
1,920 1,923 3
192,496 875,090
Jul-20 1,945
1,953 1,945 1,947
1,945 1,949 4
1,224 8,432
Sep-20 1,965
1,976 1,965 1,969
1,968 1,971 3
44,506 105,248
Soymeal
Turnover:
1,804,724 lots, or 51.29 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 - -
- 2,982 2,982
2,982 0 0 0
Dec-19 2,867
2,882 2,865 2,869
2,871 2,872 1
136 4,014
Jan-20 2,885
2,898 2,868 2,877
2,884 2,882 -2
959,950 1,412,494
Mar-20 2,828
2,830 2,803 2,810
2,813 2,818 5
59,426 400,498
May-20 2,788
2,798 2,768 2,775
2,787 2,782 -5
651,178 2,375,166
Jul-20 2,811
2,815 2,797 2,797
2,810 2,805 -5
182 1,822
Aug-20 -
- - 2,834
2,834 2,834 0
0 142
Sep-20 2,853
2,865 2,837 2,843
2,849 2,848 -1
133,852 874,992
Palm Oil
Turnover:
3,713,488 lots, or 20.15 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 4,990
4,990 4,990 0
0 0
Dec-19 -
- - 5,468
5,468 5,468 0
0 0
Jan-20 5,444
5,454 5,344 5,438
5,498 5,400 -98
3,246,284 792,844
Feb-20 5,470
5,470 5,436 5,436
5,536 5,450 -86
24 708
Mar-20 5,666
5,668 5,560 5,602
5,580 5,620 40
138 16
Apr-20 -
- - 5,666
5,626 5,666 40
0 2
May-20 5,618
5,642 5,550 5,632
5,670 5,596 -74
462,494 474,908
Jun-20 -
- - 5,638
5,638 5,638 0 0 10
Jul-20 5,584
5,604 5,426 5,550
5,648 5,532 -116
76 604
Aug-20 -
- - 5,206
5,314 5,206 -108
0 2
Sep-20 5,468
5,468 5,390 5,454
5,498 5,432 -66
4,472 36,774
Oct-20 -
- - 5,434
5,498 5,434 -64
0 4
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
1,270,442 lots, or 80.16 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 6,334
6,334 6,334 0
0 0
Dec-19 -
- - 6,296
6,296 6,296 0
0 10
Jan-20 6,364
6,372 6,298 6,348
6,422 6,326 -96
925,830 775,736
Mar-20 -
- - 6,478
6,478 6,478 0
0 700
May-20 6,290 6,300
6,236 6,284 6,340
6,264 -76 326,162
549,632
Jul-20 -
- - 6,268
6,344 6,268 -76
0 532
Aug-20 -
- - 6,262
6,336 6,262 -74
0 2
Sep-20 6,216
6,218 6,164 6,204
6,250 6,192 -58
18,450 134,320
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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