MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Monday,
November 11, 2019
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher as USDA cut production and ending stocks for the US in
its reports on Friday. The reports also
showed less ending stocks in the world data with exporter nations producing
less and China also with smaller ending stocks.
The report was considered supportive to higher prices. The charts do not necessarily show a bull
market but prices have already moved higher for much of the second half of the
year. USDA showed lower yields to
account for the lower production as harvested area was left unchanged. Demand estimates were left unchanged. US Cotton producers have faced difficult
weather all year. The Texas Panhandle in
particular has seen drought and now is seeing very cold and freezing
temperatures. The Southeast has seen
rain and then a drought and now is getting below normal temperatures. The difficult trading conditions are the reason
for the lower yields. Export demand has
not been real strong but has been better in recent weeks. The market still hopes for positive news from
the US-China trade talks as US Cotton producers want to sell to China and China
has indicated it could buy. It is
currently buying from Brazil to cover some high quality needs.
Overnight News: The
Delta and Southeast should see dry weather and below normal temperatures. Texas will have mostly dry conditions. Temperatures will be
below normal. The USDA average price is
now 61.65 ct/lb. ICE said that certified
stocks are now 42,441 ba1es, from 39,233 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6340, and 6290 December,
with resistance of 6500, 6550, and 6570 December.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: U.S. Cotton - Nov 8
U.S. Cotton
Supply and Use 1/
=========================================================================
Item 2018/2019 2019/2020
prev Nov 8 prev Nov 8
==========================================================================
Area
Million acres
Planted 14.10 14.10 13.76 13.76
Harvested 10.21 10.21 12.51 12.51
Pounds
Yield per harv. acre 864
864 833 799
Million 480 pound bales
Beginning stocks 4.20 4.20 4.85 4.85
Production 18.37 18.37 21.71 20.82
Imports
0.00 0.00 0.01 0.01
Supply, total 22.57 22.57 26.56 25.67
Domestic use 2.98 2.98 3.00 3.00
Exports 14.76 14.76 16.50 16.50
Use, total 17.74 17.74 19.50 19.50
Unaccounted 2/ -0.02 -0.02 0.06 0.07
Ending stocks 4.85 4.85 7.00 6.10
Avg. farm price 3/ 70.50 70.30 58.00 61.00
==========================================================================
1/ Upland and extra-long staple; marketing year
beginning August 1. Totals
may not add due to rounding. 2/ Reflects the difference between the
previous season's supply less total use and ending
stocks. 3/ Cents per
pound for upland cotton.
DJ USDA Supply/Demand: World Cotton - Nov 8
World Cotton
Supply and Use 1/
(Million 480-pound
bales)
=============================================================================
beginning domestic
exports ending
stocks prod
imports use use
loss 2/ stocks
=============================================================================
2019/20 (Projected)
World
Oct 80.73 124.77
42.90 121.61 42.91
0.19 83.69
Nov
80.55 121.94 44.03
121.49 44.03 0.20
80.80
World Less China
Oct 45.06 97.02
33.40 82.11 42.74
0.19 50.45
Nov 44.88 94.69
34.53 81.99 43.85
0.20 48.06
United States
Oct
4.85 21.71 0.01
3.00 16.50 0.06
7.00
Nov 4.85 20.82
0.01 3.00 16.50
0.07 6.10
Total foreign
Oct 75.88 103.07
42.90 118.61 26.41
0.13 76.69
Nov 75.70
101.12 44.03 118.49
27.53 0.13 74.70
Major exporters 4/
Oct 29.23 57.09
2.28 33.94 22.43
0.02 32.21
Nov 28.95 56.44
2.48 33.75 23.13
0.02 30.97
Central Asia 5/ Oct
2.52 5.40 3/
3.99 1.53 0.00
2.40
Nov 2.47 5.25
3/ 4.04 1.53
0.00 2.15
Afr Fr Z 6/
Oct 1.37 5.89
3/ 0.14 5.41
0.00 1.71
Nov 1.37
5.89 3/ 0.14
5.66 0.00 1.46
S Hemis 7/
Oct 15.09 14.82
0.18 4.40 11.19
0.01 14.49
Nov 14.82 14.82
0.18 4.38 11.54
0.01 13.89
Australia
Oct 1.57 1.20
3/ 0.04 1.70
0.00 1.04
Nov 1.57 1.20
3/ 0.04 1.70
0.00 1.04
Brazil
Oct 12.01 11.60
0.03 3.40 8.30
0.00 11.94
Nov 11.78 11.60
0.03 3.40 8.60
0.00 11.41
India
Oct 10.03 30.50
1.60 24.75 4.00
0.00 13.38
Nov 10.01 30.00
1.80 24.50 4.10
0.00 13.21
Major importers 8/
Oct 44.89 42.93
38.13 80.49 2.70
0.11 42.64
Nov 44.80 41.63
38.97 80.54 2.84
0.11 41.90
Mexico
Oct 0.77 1.58
0.85 2.00 0.45
0.03 0.72
Nov 0.77 1.58
0.85 2.00 0.45
0.03 0.72
China
Oct 35.67 27.75
9.50 39.50 0.18
0.00 33.25
Nov 35.67 27.25
9.50 39.50 0.18
0.00 32.75
EU-27 9/
Oct 0.24 1.76 0.68
0.71 1.67 0.03
0.27
Nov
0.23 1.86 0.65
0.69 1.76 0.03
0.26
Turkey
Oct 1.69 4.10
3.20 6.90 0.35
0.00 1.74
Nov 1.59 3.80
3.80 7.10 0.35
0.00 1.74
Pakistan
Oct 2.50 7.60
3.10 10.70 0.05
0.03 2.42
Nov 2.50 7.00
3.60 10.70 0.10
0.03 2.27
Indonesia
Oct 0.51 3/
3.30 3.20 0.01
0.00 0.61
Nov 0.53 3/
3.10 3.10 0.01
0.00 0.53
Thailand
Oct 0.18 3/
1.05 1.03 0.00
0.03 0.18
Nov 0.18 3/ 1.05
1.03 0.00 0.03
0.18
Bangladesh
Oct 1.78 0.14
7.30 7.40 0.00
0.01 1.81
Nov 1.78 0.14
7.30 7.40 0.00
0.01 1.81
Vietnam
Oct 1.19 3/
7.50 7.40 0.00
0.00 1.29
Nov 1.19 3/
7.50 7.40 0.00
0.00 1.29
=============================================================================
1/ Marketing year beginning August 1. Totals may
not add exactly and trade
may not
balance due to rounding and other factors.
2/ Generally
reflects
cotton lost or destroyed in the marketing channel; for Australia
Brazil China and the United States reflects the difference between
implicit
stocks based on supply less total use and indicated ending
stocks. 3/ Less than 5 000
bales. 4/ Includes Egypt and Syria in
addition
to the countries and regions listed. 5/
Azerbaijan Kazakhstan
Kyrgyzstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan
and Uzbekistan. 6/ Benin Burkina
Faso Cameroon
Central African Republic
Chad Cote d'Ivoire Mali
Niger
Senegal and Togo. 7/ Argentina
Australia Brazil Lesotho
South
Africa Tanzania Zambia
and Zimbabwe. 8/ In addition to the countries
and
regions listed includes Japan Russia
South Korea and Taiwan. 9/
Includes
intra-EU trade.
COT -- Supplemental Report
- Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
:
Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
:
Long : Short :Spreading: Long :
Short : Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES
U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open
Interest is 317,135
:
Positions
:
:
24,415 48,308 74,267
112,311 156,855 90,787
24,052 301,780 303,482:
15,355 13,653
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: 4,644) :
:
-1,545 10,845 -5,088
6,417 3,014 5,732
-4,269 5,515 4,502:
-872 142
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by
Each Category of Trader
:
:
7.7 15.2 23.4
35.4 49.5 28.6
7.6 95.2 95.7:
4.8 4.3
: Total Traders: 302
Number of Traders in Each Category :
:
86 85 103 56 65 47 25
247 228:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FCOJ
General
Comments: FCOJ was higher for the week
in narrow range trading. Overall chart
patterns are not strong and it is possible that weaker prices are coming. Futures had held the same range for months
but now are starting to look for lower prices and new demand as the US crop
appears to be more than big enough. USDA
did not update its production estimates this month but showed strong production
last month. Good growing conditions and
increased oranges production estimates by USDA this season have been
bearish. The weather has been great for
the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or
other severe storms so far this year.
Some areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for
Florida this year. Inventories of FCOJ
in the state are high and are more than 32% above last year.
Overnight
News: Florida should get mostly dry weather but showers
about Friday. Temperatures will average mostly
above normal but below normal this weekend. Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above
normal temperatures. ICE said that 0
notices were posted for delivery against November contracts and that total
deliveries for the month are now 206 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with
objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January.
Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 101.00,
102.00, and 104.00 January.
Disaggregated Commitments
of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of November 5, 2019
:
Reportable Positions :
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User :
Swap Dealers : Managed Money :
Other Reportables :
: Long
: Short :
Long : Short
:Spreading: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long
: Short :Spreading :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE
JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000
POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701
Open Interest is 21,325 :
: Positions :
: 11,253
7,761 1,185 0 77
762 7,895 150
1,522 1,013 2,335 :
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 :
: 49
-435 20 0 7 90
422 -75 380
-33 -16 :
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 52.8
36.4 5.6 0.0
0.4 3.6
37.0 0.7 7.1
4.8 10.9 :
: Number of Traders in Each
Category
Total Traders: 84 :
: 23
13 6 0 . . 26
. 17 6 10 :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE
General
Comments: Futures were higher on Friday and for the week
in both markets. It looks like offers
are not appearing for nearby shipments from Brazil and Vietnam so the market is
rallying looking for business. The rally
continued last week even though CECAFE said that Brazil exported more than 3.0
million bags of Coffee last month.. The
rally is coming despite ideas of big new crop production in both Brazil and
Vietnam. The Brazilian crop is
developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to
sell. The Asian harvest is underway but
producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide
profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a
year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders
will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling
old crop Coffee. Reports from Brazil
indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. Rains are expected again in Coffee areas this
week. Overall the Coffee areas remain in
a rain deficit but have had some timely rains to start the flowering. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil
next year despite stressful conditions earlier.
Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing
conditions this year. A tropical system hit production areas last week but so far there have
not been reports of damage or losses.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.224
million bags. The ICO daily average
price is now 107.32 ct/lb. Brazil will
get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all
areas.
Chart Trends: Trends
in New York are up with no objectives.
Support is at 108.00, 106.00, and 104.00 December, and resistance is at 111.00,
114.00 and 116.00 December. Trends in
London are up with objectives of 1410 January.
Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1300 January, and resistance is at 1390, 1410,
and 1430 January.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
November 05, 2019
: Reportable
Positions : Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short :
Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731
Open Interest is 376,077
: Positions :
: 31,343
71,224 98,449 146,742
162,855 77,565 27,975
354,099 360,503: 21,978
15,575
: Changes from: October 29,
2019 (Change in open
interest: 7,448) :
: -242
-11,138 5,151 4,428
17,747 2,464 -3,482
11,801 8,277: -4,353
-829
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.3
18.9 26.2
39.0 43.3 20.6
7.4 94.2 95.9:
5.8 4.1
: Total Traders: 456
Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 133
124 146 118
110 44 27
377 343:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE
Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments
of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined
Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI
Long Short Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta
Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
153,819
96,332 58,909 12,684 4,980 3,016
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0%
62.6% 38.3% 8.2% 3.2% 2.0%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
157 53 40 15 9 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long
Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,965
55,422 11,402 5,331
2,132 12,419
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
3.2% 36.0% 7.4% 3.5% 1.4% 8.1%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
14 34 15
13 10 17
Nonreportable
Positions
=======================
Long
Short
=======================
7,670
5,539
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.0%
3.6%
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed a little higher in New York and
lower in London last week. Overall
charts trends are trying to turn up for the medium term in New York but are
indicating price weakness in London.
Reports indicate that little is on offer from India. Thailand might also have less this year due
to reduced planted area. However, most
think there is still more than enough Sugar for any demand and that India will
have to sell sooner or later. Reports
from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing
conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. However, these supplies are apparently not
moving and this could be due to less government subsidy for mills and
exporters. A major storm was reported in
western India and in Pakistan last week that could have affected Sugar and
Cotton. Reports indicate that the worst of
the storm did not get into production areas and that any losses or damage
should be relatively minor. Reports of
improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed
to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March.
Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1270, 1290,
and 1300 March. Trends in London are
mixed. Support is at 331.00, 327.00, and
324.00 March, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 345.00 March.
DJ Brazil Center-South Sugar Crush Up 30.7% at
32.6M Tons in 2H Oct. -- Unica
By Jeffrey
T. Lewis
SAO
PAULO--Brazilian sugar mills in the country's center-south region crushed more
cane in the second half of October compared with a year earlier, according to
industry group Unica.
Center-south mills crushed 32.6 million metric tons of cane in the
period, a rise of 30.7% from the same period a year earlier. They produced 1.5
million tons of sugar, up 57.8%, and made 2.05 billion liters of ethanol, an
increase of 45.4%.
The
production mix for the second half of last month was 32.1% sugar to 67.9%
ethanol. A year earlier, the mix was 30.1% sugar and 69.9% ethanol.
Brazil is
the world's biggest sugar producer and exporter, and the center-south grows
about 90% of the country's cane.
In the
season from April 1 through Nov. 1, mills in the region crushed 542.9 million
tons of cane, up 6.3% from the same period a year earlier. Sugar production
rose 3.3% to 25.2 million tons, and ethanol output rose 8% to 29.6 billion
liters.
The
production mix for the season through Nov. 1 was 35.1% sugar to 64.9% ethanol.
A year earlier, the mix was 35.8% sugar and 64.2% ethanol.
COT -- Supplemental Report
- Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
:
Non-Commercial : Commercial :
Index Traders : Total
:
Long : Short :Spreading: Long :
Short : Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES
U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open
Interest is 1,118,280
: Positions
:
:
96,932 296,600 221,291
403,329 424,216 303,105
104,373 1,024,657 1,046,480:
93,623 71,801
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: 17,929) :
:
3,844 -7,989 1,129
-10,565 21,012 16,619 2,282
11,026 16,434: 6,903
1,494
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by
Each Category of Trader
:
:
8.7 26.5 19.8
36.1 37.9 27.1
9.3 91.6 93.6:
8.4 6.4
: Total Traders: 269
Number of Traders in Each Category :
:
65 72 83 77 66 40 22
225 205:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar
Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User
Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures
Europe
91,549 40,582 62,171 11,489 1,140 1,484
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
100.0% 44.3% 67.9%
12.5% 1.2% 1.6%
Number of Traders in Each Category
138 46 44 7 4 8
Reportable Positions ===============================================================================
Managed Money
Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
21,165 12,944 5,457 3,083 1,329 3,164
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
23.1% 14.1% 6.0% 3.4% 1.5% 3.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
28 22 15 7 9 14
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,125 3,859
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
5.6% 4.2%
COCOA
General
Comments: Futures closed higher and the
weekly charts imply that a significant rally is possible over the next few
weeks. Harvest is now active in West
Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. The quarterly grind data was mixed and left
people wondering how good the demand for chocolate will be. Ideas are that demand could turn out to be
very good due to the current price action.
The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the
region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong
and are above year ago levels. The
weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so
there are no real concerns about disease.
Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what
they can do boost Cocoa prices.
Overnight
News: Dry conditions or light showers are expected
in West Africa. Temperatures will be near
to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia
should see showers. Temperatures should
average above normal. Brazil will get
mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.281
million bags.
Chart
Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2450, 2410, and 2390 December,
with resistance at 2510, 2530, and 2550 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1900, 1880, and 1870 December,
with resistance at 1940, 1950, and 1990 December.
COT -- Supplemental Report
- Option and Futures Combined Positions as of November 05, 2019
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
:
Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
:
Long : Short :Spreading: Long :
Short : Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA - ICE FUTURES
U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open
Interest is 335,153
:
Positions
:
:
54,952 42,627 77,159
120,649 173,846 64,930
27,440 317,690 321,071:
17,463 14,082
: Changes from: October 29, 2019 (Change in open interest: -12,743) :
:
7,674 3,733 -10,166
-8,669 -5,702 -317
376 -11,478 -11,759:
-1,266 -985
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by
Each Category of Trader
:
:
16.4 12.7 23.0
36.0 51.9 19.4
8.2 94.8 95.8:
5.2 4.2
: Total Traders: 231
Number of Traders in Each Category :
:
80 53 81 40 39 34 20
199 162:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa
Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 11/05/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User
Swap Dealers
OI Long
Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
422,591 195,725 294,702 42,278 14,341 29,013
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
100.0% 46.3% 69.7% 10.0% 3.4% 6.9%
Number of Traders in Each Category
163 46 49 16 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money
Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
70,465 4,181
34,882 3,206 1,197 42,785
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
16.7% 1.0% 8.3% 0.8% 0.3% 10.1%
Number of Traders in Each Category
42 10 20 18 9 25
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,237 1,489
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
1.0% 0.4%
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performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can
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