MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Friday,
November 08, 2019
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher before the next round of USDA production and supply
and demand reports that will be released on Friday. Support came from news tht China and the US
re making good progress in the trade talks and that both sides have agreed to
scale back tariffs over time once a deal is completed. Both sides hope to sign an agreement in
December. There are reports that China
is buying high quality fiber from Brazil and would like to buy from the US as
well once a trade deal is finally done.
Export demand for the US has not been real strong as world economies are
turning softer. The harvest is active. Quality reports have been high until now and
the crop yields appear to be strong.
Western areas are also reporting good quality and yields. Good quality and yields are being reported in
the Delta and Southeast.
Overnight News: The
Delta and Southeast should see dry weather except for some rain late in the
week and below normal temperatures.
Texas will have mostly dry conditions this weekend but rain is possible
on Thursday and Friday. Temperatures
will be below normal. The USDA average
price is now 61.49 ct/lb. ICE said that
certified stocks are now 42,441 ba1es, from 39,233 bales
yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 6410, 6340, and 6290 December,
with resistance of 6500, 6550, and 6570 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton - Nov 7
As of Nov
1. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton
futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed
against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes
changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change
Call Previous Change
Sales
Purchases
Dec 19
20,689 23,048 -2,359
26,067 27,933 -1,866
Mar 20
30,182 28,661 1,521
11,495 10,803 692
May 20
13,128 13,297 -169
1,318 1,311 7
Jul 20
17,522 17,084 438
2,877 2,588 289
Dec 20
13,004 12,971 33
21,141 21,561 -420
Mar 21
4,061 4,063 -2
632 632 0
May 21
1,632 1,634 -2 0 0
0
Jul 21
2,799 2,802 -3 0 0
0
Dec 21
440 440
0 948 912
36
Mar 22
440 440 0 0 0
0
Total
103,897 104,440 -543
64,478 65,740 -1,262
Open Open Change
Int Int
Dec 19
113,548 118,213 -4,665
Mar 20
86,472 74,586 11,886
May 20
14,096 11,751 2,345
Jul 20
12,512 12,140 372
Dec 20
21,470 19,840 1,630
Mar 21
1,057 1,077 -20
May 21
217 218 -1
Jul 21
278 305 -27
Dec 21
167 94 73
Mar 22
0 0 0
Total
249,817 238,224 11,593
FCOJ
General
Comments: FCOJ was near unchanged in
consolidation trading. Today could be
uneventful as well as the market really has nowhere to go. The fundamentals remain negative due to the
big production potential and weaker demand ideas. Demand remains a problem as many now prefer
to get Vitamin C in other ways. Good growing
conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA have been
bearish. The weather has been great for
the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or
other severe storms so far this year.
Some areas have been dry lately and irrigation is being used. Crop yields and quality should be high for
Florida this year and USDA could increase production estimates again on Friday.
Overnight
News: Florida should get mostly dry weather but showers
about Friday. Temperatures will average mostly
above normal but below normal this weekend.
Brazil should get mostly dry weather and above normal temperatures. ICE said that 6 notices were posted for
delivery against November contracts and that total deliveries for the month are
now 206 contracts. USDA said that net
Upland Cotton export sales were 164,500 bales this year and 118,600 bales next
year. Net Pima sales were 30,000 bales
this year and 32,500 bales next year.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with
objectives of 93.00 and 85.00 January.
Support is at 96.00, 95.00, and 92.00 January, with resistance at 101.00,
102.00, and 104.00 January.
COFFEE
General
Comments: Futures were higher in both markets on reports
of a lack of Coffee on offer and high differentials in Brazil and forecasts for
a tropical storm to hit central Vietnam in the next few days. The central parts of Vietnam are where most
of the Coffee is so some losses are possible.
Trends are up in New York and London.
The market has been stronger overall despite ideas of big new crop
production in both Brazil and Vietnam as exporters are running tight on
supplies. The Brazilian crop is
developing but some exporters say they are out of previous crop supplies to
sell. The Asian harvest is underway but
producers do not seem to be selling on ideas that prices are too low to provide
profits. Vietnam exports remain behind a
year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders find
that they need to move some product. Brazil
forecasts call for scattered showers through the weekend. Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil
next year. Vietnam crops are thought to
be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are unchanged today at
2.227 million bags. The ICO daily
average price is now 106.99 ct/lb.
Brazil will get scattered showers and above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all
areas.
Chart Trends: Trends
in New York are up with no objectives.
Support is at 103.00, 102.00, and 100.00 December, and resistance is at 109.00,
111.00 and 114.00 December. Trends in
London are up with objectives of 1410 January.
Support is at 1340, 1330, and 1300 January, and resistance is at 1390, 1410,
and 1430 January.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed lower again in
both markets. Ideas of big supplies are
not helping the bulls, but those supplies do not appear to be available in the
cash market at this time. Reports
indicate that little is on offer from India.
Thailand might also have less this year due to reduced planted area. However, most think there is still more than
enough Sugar for any demand and that India will have to sell sooner or
later. Reports from India indicate that
the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large
inventories from last year. However,
these supplies are apparently not moving and this could be due to less
government subsidy for mills and exporters.
Brazil is starting to produce a little more Sugar and a little less
Ethanol as mills react to prices and market conditions. Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply
good crops there.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers. Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed
to up with objectives of 1280 and 1310 March.
Support is at 1240, 1220, and 1210 March, and resistance is at 1290, 1300,
and 1320 March. Trends in London are
mixed. Support is at 331.00, 327.00, and
324.00 March, and resistance is at 337.00, 340.00, and 345.00 March.
COCOA
General
Comments: Futures closed lower. Harvest is active
in West Africa and reports are that good volumes and quality are expected. Chart trends are mixed in New York but still
mostly down in London. The reports from West
Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region. Ivory Coast arrivals are strong and are above
year ago levels. The weather in Ivory
Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so
there are no real concerns about disease.
Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what
they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by
paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa
into the world market.
Overnight
News: Dry conditions or light showers are expected
in West Africa. Temperatures will be near
to below normal. Malaysia and Indonesia
should see showers. Temperatures should
average above normal. Brazil will get
mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.297
million bags.
Chart
Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2410, 2390, and 2370 December,
with resistance at 2450, 2510, and 2530 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with
objectives of 1850, 1790, and 1660 December.
Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1920, 1940,
and 1950 December.
DJ Nigeria Could Lose 17% of Cocoa Harvest in
2019-20 Season, Says Industry Body
By Obafemi
Oredein
IBADAN,
Nigeria-The Cocoa Association of Nigeria said Wednesday that it expects the
country to lose 17% of its cocoa crop harvest in the 2019-20 season because of
weather problems and disease that have damaged the crop in producing states.
"Cocoa
is scarce across the country at the moment," said CAN President Sayina
Riman, due to low production engendered by the bad weather and disease.
In August,
Mr. Riman had said Nigeria expected to produce 305,000 to 310,000 tons of cocoa
in the current season that began in September/October.
He admitted
then that rainfall level was high with the likelihood of the black pod disease
outbreak hitting cocoa farms and damaging the crop but was optimistic that the
production forecast could be met.
Mr. Riman
said the country's southwest region has been hit hard.
The
southwest states of Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti account for 70% of the
country's annual cocoa production.
"Nationally, we are expecting a drop from what I did forecast three
months ago. In terms of production we are going to see our forecast of 310,000
tons going down by 17%," said Mr. Riman.
Rainfall
was heavy in September and October causing flooding and the black pod disease
in cocoa farms and damaging cocoa crop.
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