MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Friday,
November 08, 2019
DJ CBOT Delivery
Intentions: Totals - Nov 8
Source: CME
Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity Month
Delivery Day Assigned
Today Date Available
ROUGH
RICE November Nov. 11, 2019 3 Nov 07, 2019
DJ U.S. Corn,
Soybean Production Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts'
estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as
compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre
and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is
scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Friday.
U.S. 2019
Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Oct. USDA 2018
Corn
Production 13,602 13,030-13,786 13,779 14,420
Corn
Yield 167.3 164.5-170.0 168.4 176.4
Harvested
Acres 81.3 79.2-81.8 81.8 81.7
Soybean
Production 3,513 3,396-3,609 3,550 4,428
Soybean
Yield 46.6 45.9-47.6 46.9 50.6
Harvested
Acres 75.4 74.5-77.2 87.6
Corn Harvested Soybean Harvested
Production Yield
Acres Production Yield
Acres
Advanced
Market 13,365 165.0
81.0 3,501 46.5
75.3
AgriSource 13,786 168.9
81.6 3,526 46.7
75.5
Allendale 13,785 168.5
N/A 3,541 46.8
N/A
DC
Analysis 13,690
168.0 81.5 3,502 46.4
75.5
Doane 13,650 166.8
81.8 3,500 46.3
75.6
EDF Man 13,692 168.0
81.5 3,492 46.5
75.1
Farm
Futures 13,474 168.3
80.1 3,609 47.6
75.9
Futures
International 13,701 167.7
81.7 3,492 46.3
75.4
Grain
Cycles 13,646 166.8
81.8 3,570 47.2
75.6
Hueber
Report 13,701 167.9
81.6 3,492 46.6
75.3
INTL
FCStone 13,702 170.0
80.6 3,539 47.5
74.5
Kapco
Futures 13,685 167.3
81.8 3,530 47.0
75.1
Sid Love
Consulting 13,496 166.0
81.3 3,447 45.9
75.1
Midland
Research 13,650 166.8
81.8 3,510 46.4
75.6
Northstar 13,675 168.0
81.4 3,490 46.3
75.4
RJO
Brien 13,644 167.2
N/A 3,501 46.5
N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0
81.5 3,468 46.0
75.4
US
Commodities 13,372 165.5
80.8 3,396 46.2
75.3
VantageRM 13,717 167.9
81.7 3,526 46.9
75.2
Western
Milling 13,030
164.5 79.2 3,591 46.5
77.2
Zaner Ag
Hedge 13,642 167.6
81.4 3,558 47.2
75.4
DJ U.S.
November Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts'
estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as
compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is
scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
U.S.
Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range
USDA Oct.
Corn 1,799 1,479-1,959 1,929
Soybeans 429 306-521 460
Wheat 1,035 995-1,078 1,043
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced
Market 1,650 410
1,053
AgriSource 1,935 437
1,040
Allendale 1,959 494
1,022
DC
Analysis 1,739 414
1,025
Doane 1,810 395
1005
EDF Man 1,949 422
1,040
Farm
Futures 1,816 470
1,073
Futures
International 1,900 427
1,043
Grain
Cycles 1,821 480
1,043
Hueber
Report 1,851 433
1043
INTL
FCStone 1,861 521 995
Kapco
Futures 1,774 440
1,040
Sid Love
Consulting 1,645 380
1,026
Midland
Research 1,849 420
1,011
Northstar 1,925 415
1,025
RJO
Brien 1,712 401
1,042
RMC 1,910 378
1,042
US
Commodities 1,481 306
1,021
VantageRM 1,866 435
1,018
Western
Milling 1,479 520
1,078
Zaner Ag
Hedge 1,842 418
1,043
DJ November
World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts'
estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending
stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The
U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and
demand tables on Friday at noon ET.
World
Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range USDA Oct.
Corn 323.9 322.7-324.4 324.0
Soybeans 110.3 109.9-113.1 109.9
Wheat 277.8 277.6-278.5 277.7
2019-20
Average Range
USDA Oct.
Corn 299.5 291.1-304.1 302.6
Soybeans 95.0 88.0-109.4 95.2
Wheat 286.8 285.4-287.8 287.8
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans
Wheat Corn Soybeans
Wheat
Advanced
Market 324.0 109.9
277.7 295.0 92.8
286.2
Allendale 324.4 110.6
278.5 302.9 95.7
287.6
Doane 324.0 109.9
278.0 300.0 95.0
287.0
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A
303.0 94.5 287.0
Farm
Futures N/A
N/A N/A 298.0
94.0 287.4
Futures
International N/A N/A N/A
300.0 91.8 286.1
Grain
Cycles N/A N/A N/A
302.0 95.7 286.0
Hueber
Report 324.0 109.9 277.7
299.7 94.8 287.6
INTL
FCStone 322.7 113.1
277.6 304.1 109.4
285.5
Kapco
Futures N/A N/A N/A
296.0 94.6 287.8
Northstar 324.0 109.9
277.7 300.0 94.2
287.0
RMC 324.0 109.9
277.7 302.0 95.0
287.8
US
Commodities 324.0 109.9
277.7 291.1 88.0
287.6
Western
Milling 324.0 109.9
277.7 299.5 96.0
286.0
Zaner Ag
Hedge 324.0 109.9
277.7 299.2 93.7
285.4
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on weaker US weekly export
sales and as the market gets ready for the USDA reports on Friday. Chicago SRW closed slightly higher while
Chicago HRW and Minneapolis Spring closed slightly lower Little change is expected for Wheat data or
supply and demand estimates. USDA did a
new survey of Spring Wheat producers to find final production, so some changes
could be made there. These changes would
most likely lower production by a little bit.
Russia and Europe continued to dominate the world market as prices in
both areas have come down a little bit.
US export sales were on the weaker side once again last week. US Winter crops are being planted now but
planting is starting to wind down as progress is over 85% complete. Australia is once again seeing significant
yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina,
especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has suffered. The weaker crops in the south have supported
better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for
sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get rain on Thursday, then mostly dry
conditions. Temperatures should be
mostly below normal. Northern areas should
see mostly dry conditions or a little light snow. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry
weather. Temperatures should be mostly below
normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 512, 507, and 504 December,
with resistance at 516, 522, and 524 December.
Trends in Kansas City are mixed.
Support is at 420, 416, and 414 December, with resistance at 426, 432,
and 437 December. Trends in Minneapolis
are down with objectives of 516, 509, and 504 December. Support is at 514, 510, and 505 December, and
resistance is at 524, 529, and 532 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was a little higher in very quiet trading as the market gets ready
for the USDA reports on Friday. Ideas
were that speculators were buying again to cover short positions or to probe
the long side. There are some who think
that USDA will reduce production and ending stocks estimates in its reports. The harvest is mostly over in all areas. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the
harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is
available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put
into storage. Export demand has been
holding well and this gives hope for higher prices down the road.
Overnight News: The Delta should get dry
weather except for some rain on Thursday.
Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1174, and 1158 January,
with resistance at 1208, 1213, and 1220 January.
DJ Thai Rice Production Likely Lower Due to
Flooding: USDA -- Market Talk
0355 GMT
- Rice production in Thailand is likely to be lower than previously forecast
due to flooding, the U.S. Department of Agriculture says. However, the USDA
continues to expect total rough-rice production of 31.0 million metric tons in
2019-2020, up 0.6% on year, due to stronger off-season production. It notes
that rice exports will likely fall due to limited supplies of low-quality rice
and a strengthening currency. This may provide some support for rice prices in
the region as they have fallen in recent weeks on ample supply. The FAO All
Rice Price Index fell 1.1% on month in October. (lucy.craymer@wsj.com)
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed lower
with Corn seeing some light volume selling and very little buying interest. The weekly export sales report showed bad
demand once again. Corn is still feeling
harvest pressure and the lack of demand and chart trends are starting to turn
down. Midwest harvest activity has
increased this week as the weather has been cold but drier. Very cold temperatures are likely after some
rain and snow moves through the region over the next couple of days. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very
good results. A few farmers have
reported yield potential above a year ago.
These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in central and eastern states
have been more varied. Export demand
remains bad but ethanol demand should continue to improve as petroleum prices
have been firming. USDA will issue its
latest production and supply and demand estimates on Friday and many expect the
agency to cut export demand again in its projections and to increase ending
stocks. Production and yields are
expected to be lower.
Overnight News: Unknown
destinations bought 217,040 tons of US Corn.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are down with objectives of 374,
365, and 359 December. Support is at 374,
370, and 365 December, and resistance is at 378, 382, and 385 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with
objectives of 310 and 320 December. Support
is at 301, 297, and 295 December, and resistance is at 309, 312, and 315 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher but Soybean Oil closed lower. The market is getting ready for the big
reports from USDA that will be released on Friday. The weekly export sales report for Soybeans
was very strong with over half of the sales made to China. There were significant sales to other
countries including Mexico and Netherlands.
The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were more focused on the
Soybeans harvest than Corn last week as producers hope to get the Soybeans out
before the snow makes it more difficult.
The market is keeping a closer
eye on the weather in South America. It
has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting
progress has been delayed. There are
forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the
next couple of weeks, but these forecasts have been around for a while and the
rains have not really come yet. USDA
will release its next monthly supply and demand and production reports on
Friday. USDA need not make any real
changes in the supply and demand reports this month. Production might not change that much from
last month but the trade expects production and ending stocks to be cut.
Overnight
News: Unknown destinations bought 270,000 tons of US
Soybeans.
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 925,
922, and 918 January, and resistance is at 942, 945, and 947 January. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 302.00, 299.00, and 297.00 December,
and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives
of 3200 and 3290 December. Support is at
3130, 3100, and 3060 December, with resistance at 3190, 3200, and 3230 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was slightly lower. Higher world vegetable oils markets are
starting to lend some support to Canola.
Demand from crushers is reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with stronger
world vegetable oils markets and reports of strong exports. The market is expecting MPOB to show short
production and reduced ending stocks in its monthly data tomorrow. Price action is very strong.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 460.00, 458.00, and 455.00 January, with resistance at 466.00, 468.00,
and 471.00 January. Trends in Palm Oil
are mixed to up with objectives of 2560 and 2620 January. Support is at 2500, 2450, and 2400 January,
with resistance at 2590, 2620, and 2650 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Some light
rain or snow over the weekend. Temperatures
should average below normal.
|
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean
Meal
|
Soybean
Oil
|
|
November
|
+54
Dec
|
+178
Dec
|
+100
Dec
|
+51
Jan
|
+12
Dec
|
N/A
|
|
December
|
+55
Dec
|
|
+95
Dec
|
+50
Jan
|
|
|
|
January
|
+53
Mar
|
|
+90
Mar
|
+50
Jan
|
|
|
|
All basis levels are positive unless noted as
negative
|
|
|
|
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DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Nov 6
WINNIPEG -- The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region
432.10 -30.00 Jan 2020
dn 0.10
Basis: Thunder Bay
472.40 10.00 Jan 2020
up 0.30
Basis: Vancouver
480.40 18.00 Jan 2020
up 0.30
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric
tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - November 8
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes
& Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 620.00 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Dec 627.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 640.00
+02.50 Unquoted -
-
Apr/May/Jun 642.50
+05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 622.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Dec 630.00 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 642.50
+02.50 Unquoted
- -
Apr/May/Jun 645.00
+05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 617.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 497.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 2,480.00 +20.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 163.00 +02.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1325)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Nov 08
Soybean No. 1
Turnover:
138,642 lots, or 4.73 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 3,276
3,276 3,276 0 0
0
Jan-20 3,385
3,401 3,371 3,382
3,398 3,383 -15
125,544 206,600
Mar-20 3,421
3,421 3,421 3,421
3,458 3,421 -37
6 72
May-20 3,685
3,694 3,676 3,687
3,689 3,685 -4
11,860 87,594
Jul-20 3,741
3,741 3,741 3,741
3,736 3,741 5
2 48
Sep-20 3,754
3,766 3,750 3,760
3,763 3,756 -7
1,230 10,500
Corn
Turnover:
1,442,360 lots, or 27.17 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 1,822
1,816 1,822 6
0 12,000
Jan-20 1,845
1,866 1,843 1,865
1,851 1,856 5
930,286 1,362,674
Mar-20 1,883
1,899 1,878 1,898
1,884 1,891 7
142,142 518,906
May-20 1,930
1,950 1,930 1,949
1,939 1,942 3
316,530 857,250
Jul-20 1,958
1,972 1,957 1,972
1,958 1,965 7
1,328 8,802
Sep-20 1,986
1,997 1,980 1,995
1,986 1,990 4
52,074 103,630
Soymeal
Turnover:
2,788,380 lots, or 80.81 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 2,982
2,982 2,982 0
0 0
Dec-19 2,905
2,937 2,862 2,921
2,919 2,907 -12 4,374
4,564
Jan-20 2,930
2,954 2,916 2,933
2,928 2,936 8
1,584,340 1,712,352
Mar-20 2,849
2,876 2,832 2,852
2,849 2,857 8
105,512 362,974
May-20 2,826
2,857 2,812 2,836
2,825 2,839 14
930,416 2,249,536
Jul-20 2,840
2,871 2,833 2,853
2,844 2,857 13
86 1,532
Aug-20 -
- - 2,862
2,862 2,862 0
0 140
Sep-20 2,880
2,904 2,861 2,883
2,874 2,885 11
163,652 731,682
Palm Oil
Turnover:
3,274,710 lots, or 17.52 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 4,990
4,990 4,990 0
0 0
Dec-19 5,400
5,400 5,266 5,266
5,380 5,332 -48
4 2
Jan-20 5,324
5,398 5,266 5,338
5,400 5,330 -70
2,911,434 766,166
Feb-20 5,346
5,348 5,346 5,348
5,422 5,346 -76
12 714
Mar-20 -
- - 5,542
5,542 5,542 0
0 20
Apr-20 5,404
5,538 5,404 5,512
5,488 5,478 -10
26 2
May-20 5,500
5,566 5,456 5,528
5,562 5,512 -50
355,946 405,062
Jun-20 5,508
5,556 5,504 5,504
5,600 5,522 -78
6 10
Jul-20 5,486
5,486 5,398 5,398
5,538 5,442 -96
4 606
Aug-20 -
- - 5,148
5,238 5,148
-90 0 2
Sep-20 5,338
5,394 5,272 5,352
5,392 5,338 -54
7,272 30,374
Oct-20 5,504
5,504 5,404 5,418
5,504 5,442 -62
6 8
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
1,539,472 lots, or 97.57 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 6,334
6,334 6,334 0
0 0
Dec-19 6,228
6,348 6,228 6,340
6,284 6,284 0
12 8
Jan-20 6,352
6,436 6,284 6,388
6,368 6,358 -10
1,244,064 858,182
Mar-20 6,340
6,400 6,340 6,400
6,362 6,362 0
6 706
May-20 6,254
6,308 6,184 6,290 6,280
6,248 -32 281,972
449,272
Jul-20 6,250
6,250 6,230 6,230
6,346 6,232 -114
12 536
Aug-20 -
- - 6,018
6,128 6,018 -110
0 0
Sep-20 6,190
6,232 6,130 6,220
6,212 6,186 -26
13,406 123,838
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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