Grains Comments 10/30/2019

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024

jslsa@comcast.net

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were lower again yesterday as the market is worried about finding demand. Egypt bought more Wheat yesterday but it was mostly sourced from eastern Europe with one cargo coming from France. US Winter crops are being planted now under generally good conditions. It has been cold but not cold enough to stop fieldwork. There was some significant snow in panhandle areas of Texas and Oklahoma last week, but this snow will melt and add to soil moisture. More precipitation is falling this week so planting progress should turn slow. Australia and Argentina have both been very dry and these conditions are expected to continue. Australia is once again seeing significant yield losses as a drought in the country extends into the third year. It has been dry in parts of Argentina, especially southern areas, and Wheat production potential has started to suffer. The weaker crops in the south have supported better demand ideas for US Wheat but the demand has yet to show. Russia and Europe continue to compete for sales and have captured most of the export volume until now.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. Northern areas should see mostly dry conditions. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be mostly below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to down with objectives of 497 and 489 December. Support is at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 517, 524, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed. Support is at 414, 401, and 399 December, with resistance at 427, 437, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are down with objectives of 520, 516, and 504 December. Support is at 522, 518, and 514 December, and resistance is at 531, 534, and 536 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher after finding no follow through selling from Monday. Futures ran all the way back to the short term resistance areas on the charts before finding much selling interest. The harvest is mostly over in all areas except California and field yields appear to be generally below last year but still stronger than some analysts had expected. Milling quality is said to be lower on later harvested Rice but was good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. There are ideas that not much Rice is available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put into storage. Export demand has been holding well. Domestic demand is said to be quiet.

Overnight News: The Delta should get some big rains today, then dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis : Trends are down with objectives of 1147, 1139, and 1111 November. Support is at 1155, 1143, and 1126 November, with resistance at 1171, 1183, and 1190 November.

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Oct 30

USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

-----World Price----- MLG/LDP Rate

Milled Value Rough Rough

($/cwt) ($/cwt) ($/cwt)

Long Grain 14.51 9.26 0.00

Medium/Short Grain 14.17 9.49 0.00

Brokens 8.75 ---- ----

CORN AND OATS

General Comments : Corn and Oats closed higher with Oats the stronger market. Corn closed just slightly higher in choppy trading. Corn is still feeling harvest pressure and reports of somewhat better than expected yields. Harvest is now delayed due to rains and snows in growing areas and might not get started again until next week. Producers have been concentrating on Soybeans but some producers are also harvesting Corn. Yield data shows mixed crops but some very good results. A few farmers have reported yield potential above a year ago. These reports are mostly in western areas. Yield reports in other states have been more varied. Some farmers are waiting for crops to dry down more before beginning the harvest. Harvest conditions were variable last week with some rain around and some very significant rains reported in the Midwest over the weekend. It is cool and the grounds will be slow to dry enough for further harvesting as some rain and snow showers are expected for the rest of this week. Export demand remains bad but ethanol demand should continue to improve as petroleum prices have been firming.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 382, 378, and 377 December, and resistance is at 392, 397, and 399 December. Trends in Oats are mixed. Support is at 295, 294, and 288 December, and resistance is at 305, 309, and 312 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were slightly lower but Soybean Oil was a little higher. It was a day of consolidation trading as the market waits for news. Farmers are more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn but have had to stop due to big rains last weekend and rains and snows now appearing in much of the Midwest. Yield reports show that yields are generally better in western areas than to the east with some very good yields reported in the west. China continued to buy US agricultural products including pork and Soybeans. The two sides hope to have a Phase One deal ready in November for signing at the APEC meetings and comments made on both sides suggest that some agreement will be made by then. It is a case of getting the words right at this time. There will be more meetings to find a more comprehensive deal that can be signed by both presidents. The market is keeping a closer eye on the weather in South America. It has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks.

Overnight News: Unknown destinations bought 132,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are down with objectives of 915 and 897 November. Support is at 911, 908, and 905 November, and resistance is at 925, 927, and 933 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are down with objectives of 302.00 and 296.00 December. Support is at 301.00, 300.00, and 297.00 December, and resistance is at 307.00, 309.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3150 December. Support is at 3070, 3050, and 3020 December, with resistance at 3150, 3160, and 3190 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was a little lower on some speculative long liquidation and some commercial selling as the harvest continues. Some of the selling came in sympathy with the price action in Chicago Soybeans. The harvest remains active and wire services report that Canola is entering the commercial system. Slower progress is likely the rest of this week as the Prairies should see rain and snow. Demand from crushers is reported to be good. Palm Oil was higher in sympathy with stronger world vegetable oils markets and ideas of strong exports.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are mixed. Support is at 449.00, 448.00, and 445.00 November, with resistance at 454.00, 457.00, and 459.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are up with no objectives. Support is at 2400, 2380, and 2340 January, with resistance at 2440, 2450, and 2460 January.

Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for showers today and Thursday. Temperatures should average near to below normal.

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
Octember	+49 Dec	+170 Dec	+65 Dec	+54 Nov	+12 Dec	N/A
November	+51 Dec		+90 Dec	+55 Nov
December	+55 Dec		+90 Dec	+46 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 29

WINNIPEG--The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures for Oct. 29, 2019.

Source: ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price Basis Contract Change

*Par Region 423.31 -29.09 Nov 2019 dn 2.30

Track Thunder Bay 470.40 10.00 Jan 2019 dn 0.40

Track Vancouver 478.70 18.00 Jan 2019 dn 0.40

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (Phil Franz-Warkentin,

news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - October 30

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports