MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Friday, October
25, 2019
DJ Analysts' Estimates for October USDA
Cattle-on-Feed Report
The
following estimates, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal for the nation's
feedyards with a capacity of 1,000 or more head, are in percentages of the
year-earlier figure. High and low projections were dropped in the calculation
of averages. The U.S. Agriculture Department report is scheduled for release at
3 p.m. EDT (1900 GMT) Friday.
Average Range
of estimates of estimates
On-feed
Oct. 1 98.7 97.7-
99.8
Placed in
September 100.8 95.1- 107.6
Marketed in
September 101.2 98.2- 101.5
Analyst
On-Feed Placements Marketed
Oct. 1 in September in September
Allegiant
Commodity Group 98.6 100.4 101.1
Allendale
Inc. 99.8 107.6 101.5
HedgersEdge
98.0 97.0 101.1
Livestock
Mktg Info Ctr 98.9 101.7 101.1
NFC
Markets 97.7 95.1 101.5
Texas
A&M Extenstion 99.3 104.2 101.2
U.S.
Commodities 98.9 100.5 98.2
DJ USDA Cold Storage: Totals-Oct 22
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)==U.S. stocks of pork bellies in freezers
totaled 40.668 million pounds, in September, 11.1%
below the previous
month, and 34.0% above September 2018, the U.S.
Department Agriculture
said Tuesday.
In thousand
pounds.
public
Sep 30 Aug 31
Sep 30 Aug 31 warehouse
2019 2019 2018 2018
stocks/Sep
pork bellies
40,668 45,723
30,354 34,805
orange juice 809,639 808,043
608,983 633,390
french fries 921,903 935,916
932,954 898,725
other potatoes 238,782 226,606
252,068 242,029
chicken rstr (whole) 22,492
22,274 21,073 20,407
ham 201,712 202,454
214,628 204,763
total pork 598,899 606,778
589,403 581,513 552,229
total beef 464,186 469,906
507,166 501,315 456,505
total red meat
1,110,437 1,128,712 1,150,771
1,136,393 1,055,176
total chicken 914,971 892,807
958,003 926,247
total turkey
528,258 562,402
564,746 606,359
total poultry
1,446,927 1,458,924 1,526,312
1,536,580 1,347,725
===============================================================================
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower
on speculative selling that is being called long liquidation. World market prices are still firm but the
weekly export sales report was not strong for Wheat. The market continues to anticipate better
export demand due to poor growing conditions in other countries and the strong
world prices. There are big problems
with Wheat crops in Australia again this year due to the ongoing drought
situation. Southern and western areas
are most affected. There has been talk
of adverse weather in Argentina, too, and some are talking about crop losses
there. Meanwhile, the storms have moved
out of the Canadian Prairies and northern Great Plains and left behind some
damaged Wheat. The weather is improving
now and the harvest should start to get finished up. The fact that no more damaging weather is
coming caused some speculative selling and increased harvest activity in Canada
caused some commercial selling. Planting
of the US Winter Wheat crop is proceeding under generally good conditions.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week after
some big storm today. Temperatures
should be variable. Northern areas should
see mostly periods of light showers.
Temperatures should be below normal.
The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather. Temperatures should be below normal. China
imported 138,008 tons of Wheat in September, down 48.2% from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 515, 511, and 504 December,
with resistance at 524, 527, and 535 December.
Trends in Kansas City are mixed.
Support is at 417, 414, and 401 December, with resistance at 427, 437,
and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are
mixed. Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December,
and resistance is at 550, 553, and 558 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was higher on improved weekly
export sales and little on offer from producers. The harvest is all but over according to USDA
and interior cash markets are reported to be generally quiet at firmer levels. Field yields appear to be generally below
last year but still stronger than some analysts had expected. Milling quality is said to be lower on later
harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Overall quality is good. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the
harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage. Prices paid are said to be about even with
futures prices in Arkansas and are firm in other states as well. There are ideas that not much Rice is
available to the cash market right now as much of the new Rice has been put
into storage. Export demand has been
holding.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly
dry conditions after some big storms today.
Temperatures should be near to above normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed to down with objectives of
1164, 1147, and 1139 November. Support
is at 1166, 1162, and 1155 November, with resistance at 1183, 1190, and 1200 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little lower
in quiet trading. Price action suffered
in part due to the bad weekly export ales data and in part on ideas that demand
for Ethanol has not started to improve just yet. The harvest is finally starting to get more
active now that the weather has turned drier in the Midwest. However, farmers are trying to let the grain
dry down and have not been real aggressive with the harvest pace. Some farmers are concentrating on harvesting
Soybeans and will return to the Corn later.
Yield reports seem stronger in the western Corn Belt than in the east,
but there have been some variable reports in all areas. Many think that the best Corn is being
harvested now and that yield reports will show less Corn as the harvest
progresses. Some farmers say that this
might not be the case and it will depend on individual situations. Some were able to get more fertilizers in the
field for the second crop and these yields might be better.
Overnight News: China
imported 139,576 tons of Corn in September.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 385, 378, and 377 December, and
resistance is at 392, 397, and 399 December.
Trends in Oats are mixed to up with no objectives. Support is at 300, 298, and 296 December, and
resistance is at 305, 309, and 312 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed about unchanged yesterday after trading higher. Products were mixed as Soybean Oil moved
sharply higher and Soybean Meal moved a little lower. The weekly export sales report was poor but
USDA did announce new sales to China yesterday.
Soybeans saw some additional selling pressure on ideas of expanding
harvest activity and closed with small gains despite reports of more Chinese
buying of US Soybeans. China said it
could buy 10 million tons in the coming year with a trade deal and has waved
punitive tariffs so industry there can start to buy. The weekly USDA data showed that farmers were
more focused on the Soybeans harvest than Corn last week. Yield reports show that yields are generally
better in western areas than to the east.
China has pulled back from buying US agricultural products including
pork and Soybeans but USDA did announce a sales of 264,000 tons to China
yesterday. That was the second sale of
Soybeans in the daily system for the week as USDA had announced a sale of
Soybeans the previous day to unknown destinations. The two sides hope to have a Phase One deal
ready in November for signing at the G-7 meetings. There will be more meetings to find a more
comprehensive deal that can be signed by both presidents and China thinks a
deal will ge4t done. The market is also starting to keep a closer eye on the weather in South
America. It has been too dry in parts of
central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. Parts of Argentina have also been dry. There are forecasts for more rains to allow
better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight
News: China imported 8.196 million tons of Soybeans
in September, up 2.3% from last year. It
imported 91,251 tons of Soybean Oil, up 15.4% from last year.
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed. Support is at 927,
924, and 919 November, and resistance is at 941, 945, and 950 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December,
and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives
of 3150 December. Support is at 3100, 3070,
and 3050 December, with resistance at 3160, 3190, and 3200 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher in sympathy
with rallies in Chicago Soybean Oil and Malaysian Palm Oil. The harvest remains active and wire services
report that Canola is entering the commercial system. Demand from crushers is reported to be good. Palm Oil was sharply higher and made new
highs for the move on hopes for better domestic demand as export demand remains
soft. SGS reported that exports have
increased so far this month and are now ahead of last month. Soybean Oil was higher. The charts show that trends are up again.
Overnight News: China imported 577,589 tons of Palm Oil in
September, up 11.9% from last year. SGS
said tht Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.202 million tons, from 1.102 million
last month. AmSpec said exports are now
1.243 million tons, up 13.4% from last month.
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 454.00, 449.00, and 448.00 November, with resistance at 459.00, 461.00,
and 465.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil
are up with no objectives. Support is at
2340, 2320, and 2280 January, with resistance at 2410, 2440, and 2450 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Chances for
showers this weekend. Temperatures should
average near to below normal.
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US
Gulf Cash Basis
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Corn
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HRW
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SRW
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Soybeans
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Soybean Meal
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Soybean Oil
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Octember
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+37 Dec
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+170 Dec
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+75 Dec
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+37 Nov
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+12 Dec
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N/A
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November
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+43 Dec
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+85 Dec
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+40 Nov
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December
|
+52 Dec
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+85 Dec
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+30 Jan
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All basis levels
are positive unless noted as negative
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DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 24
By
MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG,
Oct. 24 (MarketsFarm) - The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Wednesday,
Oct. 24.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract
Change
*Par Region
424.61 -29.29
Nov 2019 up 0.30
Track Thunder Bay
473.80 10.00 Nov 2019
up 1.40
Track Vancouver
481.80 18.00 Nov 2019
up 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 25
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes
& Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 572.50 +07.50
Unquoted -
-
Dec 582.50 +07.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 597.50
+07.50 Unquoted -
-
Apr/May/Jun 607.50
+02.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm olein,
FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Bid Change Traded
Nov 575.00 +07.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 585.00 +07.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 600.00
+07.50 Unquoted -
-
Apr/May/Jun 610.00
+02.50 Unquoted
- -
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 570.00 +07.50
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 462.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 2,310.00 +25.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Nov 160.00 +08.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1845)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 25
Soybean No. 1
Turnover:
150,306 lots, or 5.15 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,327
3,357 3,311 3,318
3,332 3,333 1
16 274
Jan-20 3,394
3,420 3,386 3,396
3,398 3,398 0
136,082 219,086
Mar-20 -
- - 3,421
3,421 3,421 0
0 36
May-20 3,662
3,675 3,648 3,649
3,657 3,655 -2
12,608 67,990
Jul-20 3,715
3,722 3,713 3,722
3,712 3,716 4
10 52
Sep-20 3,735
3,753 3,730 3,734
3,738 3,737 -1
1,590 8,790
Corn
Turnover: 601,196
lots, or 11.11 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,790
1,796 1,789 1,793
1,791 1,792 1
1,232 17,042
Jan-20 1,828
1,834 1,825 1,828
1,829 1,829 0
434,518 1,223,654
Mar-20 1,856
1,862 1,855 1,856
1,859 1,859 0
43,474 341,540
May-20 1,907
1,910 1,904 1,906
1,906 1,906 0
106,608 606,826
Jul-20 1,925
1,935 1,925 1,932
1,930 1,929 -1
536 8,828
Sep-20 1,953
1,959 1,952 1,954
1,956 1,955 -1
14,828 79,550
Soymeal
Turnover:
2,107,694 lots, or 63.67 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,074
3,086 3,055 3,055
3,074 3,073 -1
1,870 4,448
Dec-19 3,082
3,091 3,066 3,084
3,082 3,081 -1
24,478 230,144
Jan-20 3,046
3,057 3,031 3,046
3,046 3,046 0
1,598,932 2,344,486
Mar-20 2,984
2,984 2,968 2,983
2,982 2,978 -4
412 986
May-20 2,920
2,930 2,915 2,927
2,925 2,923 -2
360,480 1,763,980
Jul-20 2,938
2,942 2,931 2,938
2,939 2,936 -3
176 1,432
Aug-20 2,910
3,024 2,890 2,948
2,949 2,937 -12
24 54
Sep-20 2,971
2,972 2,958 2,964
2,971 2,963 -8
121,322 480,378
Palm Oil
Turnover:
2,576,254 lots, or 13.20 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 4,990
4,990 4,990 0
0 0
Dec-19 5,044
5,044 4,974 4,974
4,856 5,008 152
4 6
Jan-20 5,008
5,124 5,000 5,068
4,928 5,076 148
2,120,072 605,050
Feb-20 -
- -
5,194 5,044 5,194
150 0 708
Mar-20 - -
- 5,266 5,114
5,266 152 0 4
Apr-20 -
- - 5,276
5,124 5,276 152
0 6
May-20 5,290
5,402 5,280 5,318
5,208 5,336 128
445,660 286,418
Jun-20 5,344
5,344 5,326 5,326 5,140
5,336 196 6 8
Jul-20 -
- - 5,452
5,252 5,452 200
0 602
Aug-20 -
- - 5,314
5,120 5,314 194
0 2
Sep-20 5,252
5,338 5,232 5,258
5,182 5,276 94 10,512
22,934
Oct-20 -
- - 5,282
5,188 5,282 94
0 0
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
1,542,280 lots, or 95.77 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 5,966
5,966 5,966 0
0 4
Dec-19 6,214
6,214 6,126 6,126
6,044 6,184 140
8 12
Jan-20 6,146
6,300 6,144 6,186
6,090 6,218 128
1,258,950 792,310
Mar-20 6,228
6,334 6,196 6,308
6,124 6,272 148
16 700
May-20 6,116
6,234 6,112 6,134
6,078 6,166 88
254,876 335,912
Jul-20 -
- - 6,144
6,142 6,144 2
0 526
Aug-20 -
- - 6,080
5,994 6,080 86
0 0
Sep-20 6,122 6,204 6,104
6,122 6,078 6,154
76 28,430 100,042
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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