MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Monday, October
21, 2019
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was higher on follow through buying tied to talk that the US and
China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to
flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases. Cotton producers hope that China will buy
some Cotton from the US but China has not been doing this. It has concentrated on Soybeans and Pork
purchases instead. The market is still
finding support from deteriorating crop conditions. Weekly USDA reports still show a tale of two
crops with some crops very good to excellent but some crops very poor. This trend has been a feature of the market all
year as the Texas Panhandle and nearby areas have been very hot and dry for a
big part of the growing season. Crops in
the southeast have seen perhaps too much rain and much cooler weather. Another system moved through southern Georgia
and through the Carolinas with some significant rain that might hurt Cotton
quality. The weekly report showed
increased stress in the southeast last week.
The export demand remains weak.
Overnight News: The
Delta should see mostly dry weather after some showers and storms today, and
Southeast should see showers and storms over the middle of the week, otherwise
dry weather. Temperatures should be near
to below normal. Texas will have mostly dry
conditions after rains in the east today.
Temperatures will be near to below normal. The USDA average price is now 62.30
ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks
are now 10,435 ba1es, from 10,435 bales yesterday.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with
objectives of 6590, 6650, and 6670 December.
Support is at 6460, 6400, and 6370 December, with resistance of 6540, 6580,
and 6750 December.
DJ On-Call Cotton - Oct 18
As of Oct
11. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or
purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton
futures contracts
of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed
against these contracts.
Source: CFTC
*-denotes
changes from the previous week are based on revised data from
last week.
Call Previous Change
Call Previous Change
Sales
Purchases
Dec 19
24,185 24,369 -184
31,957 36,163 -4,206
Mar 20
27,048 26,798 250
10,588 8,253 2,335
May 20
11,805 11,533 272
1,236 1,155 81
Jul 20
16,267 15,416 851
2,468 2,320 148
Dec 20
11,205 11,262 -57
19,489 19,386 103
Mar 21
3,947 3,949 -2
574 574 0
May 21
1,636 1,638 -2 0 0
0
Jul 21
2,809 2,812 -3 0 0
0
Dec 21 440 440 0
824 824 0
Mar 22 440 440 0 0 0
0
Total
99,782 98,657 1,125
67,136 68,675 -1,539
Open Open Change
Int Int
Oct 19
0 1 -1
Dec 19
134,005 135,138 -1,133
Mar 20
69,514 63,818 5,697
May 20
9,471 8,794 677
Jul 20
9,539 8,457 1,082
Dec 20
17,612 17,445 167
Mar 21
1,158 1,156 2
May 21 196 196 0
Jul 21 327 350
-23
Dec 21 3 2 1
Mar 22 0 0 0
Total
241,825 235,356 6,469
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
October 15, 2019
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #033661 Open
Interest is 310,955
: Positions
:
: 28,122
47,207 86,886 96,611
139,623 83,593
25,265 295,212 298,981:
15,742 11,974
: Changes from: October 8,
2019 (Change in open
interest: 2,300) :
: 172
-12,603 2,862 -569
13,324 -406 334
2,059 3,918: 241
-1,618
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
:
: 9.0
15.2 27.9 31.1
44.9 26.9 8.1
94.9 96.1: 5.1
3.9
: Total Traders: 302
Number of Traders in Each
Category :
: 73
96 95 60 64 51 26
244 226:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FCOJ
General
Comments: FCOJ was slightly higher in
range trading. Futures have held the
same rang for months now and show no signs of going higher or lower. Good growing conditions and increased oranges
production estimates by USDA are bearish, but the market seems to have found a
minimum area for now. USDA estimated
Florida production at 74 million boxes.
The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent
periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year. Some areas have been dry lately and some
irrigation has been used. A storm moved
through central and northern areas of the state over the weekend but mostly
brought rain. Crop yields and quality
should be high for Florida this year.
Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above
last year. Rains are falling in Brazil
and trees should be flowering now.
Overnight
News: Florida should get scattered showers and storms over
the middle of the week, otherwise mostly dry weather. Temperatures will average near to above normal. Brazil should get scattered showers this
week and drier weather this weekend and above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed. Support is at 98.00, 96.00, and 95.00
September, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 September.
Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined
Positions as of October 15, 2019
:
Reportable Positions
:
:-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
:
: Producer/Merchant : : : :
: Processor/User :
Swap Dealers : Managed Money :
Other Reportables :
: Long :
Short : Long
: Short :Spreading:
Long : Short
:Spreading: Long :
Short :Spreading :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S. (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS) :
CFTC Code #040701
Open Interest is 22,069 :
: Positions
:
: 11,771 8,324
1,092 0 70
725 6,818 319
1,072 895 3,451 :
: Changes from: October 8,
2019
:
: 2 -338 44 0 0
-94 -179 76
-75 3 -345 :
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 53.3 37.7
4.9 0.0 0.3
3.3 30.9 1.4
4.9 4.1 15.6 :
: Number of Traders in Each Category Total Traders: 77 :
: 24 14 6 0 . . 19 . 15 5 13 :
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE
General
Comments: Futures were lower on a lack of buying interest
rather than any big new selling interest.
Trends in both markets are down.
New York was higher despite more reports of good flowering in Brazil as
Real started to rally against the US Dollar.
The Real rallied after testing recent lows. London has been the weaker market as the Asian
harvest is underway. Vietnam exports
remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers
and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this
by selling old crop Coffee. The Arabica
growing areas got needed rains to start the flowering last week and reports
indicate that flowering is off to a very good start. More rain is expected this weekend or early
next week. Many now anticipate a big crop
from Brazil next year. However, there
was some extreme cold and drought conditions earlier in the year that might
have stressed trees and could hurt production potential for this year despite
the good weather now. Vietnam crops are
thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the
growing areas have seen some very heavy rains.
The rains are more moderate now.
Demand has been quiet over the last couple of weeks. Differentials
have been stable but buyers are not aggressive.
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.256
million bags. The ICO daily average
price is now 95.39 ct/lb. Brazil will
get scattered showers into next week with above normal temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered showers in all
areas.
Chart Trends: Trends
in New York are mixed. Support is at 94.00,
91.00, and 88.00 December, and resistance is at 98.00, 99.00 and 100.00 December. Trends in London are down with no objectives. Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 November,
and resistance is at 1230, 1250, and 1280 November.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of
October 15, 2019
: Reportable
Positions
: Nonreportable
:----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
: Positions
: Non-Commercial :
Commercial :
Index Traders : Total
: Long :
Short :Spreading: Long : Short :
Long : Short : Long :
Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #083731
Open Interest is 360,385
: Positions
:
: 27,587
86,177 90,724 141,445
135,938 72,492 31,187
332,247 344,027: 28,138
16,358
: Changes from: October 8,
2019 (Change in open
interest: 32,400) :
: 1,252
12,056 7,912 16,002
6,738 3,538 3,696
28,704 30,402: 3,696
1,998
: Percent of Open Interest
Represented by Each Category of Trader :
:
7.7 23.9 25.2
39.2 37.7 20.1
8.7 92.2 95.5:
7.8 4.5
: Total Traders: 469
Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 132
136 137 121
103 47 27
380 339:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE
Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options
Commitments
of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined
Positions as of 10/15/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI
Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Robusta
Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
176,751
109,851 63,729 18,123 10,514 2,104
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
100.0%
62.2% 36.1% 10.3% 5.9% 1.2%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
172 59 45 15 6 13
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long
Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
4,850
62,230 11,084 4,135
3,666 16,439
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
2.7%
35.2% 6.3% 2.3% 2.1% 9.3%
Number of
Traders in Each Category
11 43 16
14 13 20
Nonreportable
Positions
=======================
Long
Short
=======================
10,165
6,985
Percent of
Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader
5.8%
4.0%
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher on Friday
but lower for the week as the US Dollar.
London was also higher on Friday but lower for the week as it appears that
lower production in Europe has been priced into the market. Futures remain in a trading range but have
been showing that some weakness is still around. Europe and Russia are probably buying in the
world market after poor growing seasons.
Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there. World petroleum prices are relatively cheap
and are not supporting ethanol demand ideas.
Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good
growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year. The weather there has improved with the
monsoon and some areas are seeing some excessive rains The weather has been
much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe. Those areas had a very hot and dry start to
the growing season and there are reports of crop losses this year.
Overnight News: Brazil will get scattered showers into next
week. Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed
to down with objectives of 1190 March.
Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1240, 1260,
and 1290 March. Trends in London are down
with objectives of 331.00 and 322.00 December.
Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 326.00 December, and resistance is at
337.00, 343.00, and 348.00 December.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #080732 Open Interest is 1,033,815
: Positions :
: 88,284 274,648 181,910 380,326 400,561 292,250 95,471 942,770 952,590: 91,044 81,225
: Changes from: October 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: 13,269) :
: 5,042 8,163 -4,405 1,437 -5,223 -477 176 1,597 -1,288: 11,672 14,557
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 8.5 26.6 17.6 36.8 38.7 28.3 9.2 91.2 92.1: 8.8 7.9
: Total Traders: 268 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 63 70 86 80 66 40 22 225 207:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar
Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/15/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures
Europe
104,598 46,665 64,544 13,738 1,294 1,767
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
100.0% 44.6% 61.7% 13.1% 1.2% 1.7%
Number of Traders in Each Category
139
46 48 7 5 9
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
16,974 14,139 10,002
3,933 1,562 6,716
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
16.2% 13.5% 9.6% 3.8% 1.5% 6.4%
Number of Traders in Each Category
26 19 14
8 9 16
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
4,803 4,574
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
4.6% 4.4%
COCOA
General
Comments: Futures closed a little lower again Friday and lower for the week as the
market continues to correct following the rally attempt earlier in the week. Chart trends are turning down. Ideas of increasing harvest pressure kept the
sellers interested. The reports from
West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region, but no one knows how to
handle to new marketing and producer support programs imposed by the
governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana. Ivory
Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels two weeks into
the season. The weather in Ivory Coast
has improved due to reports of frequent showers. The precipitation is a little less now so
there are no real concerns about disease.
Ideas are that the next crop will be very good. Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what
they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by
paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa
into the world market. The moves could force the big
Cocoa processors and grinders to pay more as they contract for Cocoa well in
advance to ensure adequate supplies.
Overnight
News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in
West Africa. Temperatures will be on
both sides of normal. Malaysia and
Indonesia should see showers. Temperatures
should average above normal. Brazil will
get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures. ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.548
million bags.
Chart
Trends: Trends in New York are mixed. Support is at 2460, 2440, and 2410 December,
with resistance at 2550, 2560, and 2570 December. Trends in London are mixed to down with no
objectives. Support is at 1870, 1850,
and 1830 December, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 1990 December.
COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019
: Reportable Positions : Nonreportable
:---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- : Positions
: Non-Commercial : Commercial : Index Traders : Total
: Long : Short :Spreading: Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short : Long : Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.
CFTC Code #073732 Open Interest is 347,024
: Positions :
: 43,481 33,861 89,573 132,879 181,945 62,882 25,365 328,814 330,744: 18,210 16,280
: Changes from: October 8, 2019 (Change in open interest: 5,951) :
: 2,933 -2,247 990 2,215 6,095 -1,307 -325 4,831 4,514: 1,120 1,437
: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader :
: 12.5 9.8 25.8 38.3 52.4 18.1 7.3 94.8 95.3: 5.2 4.7
: Total Traders: 240 Number of Traders in Each Category :
: 83 56 96 39 44 35 19 211 175:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa
Futures/Options
Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures
Combined Positions as of 10/15/2019
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Producer/Merchant/
Processor/User
Swap Dealers
OI Long Short Long Short Spreading
===============================================================================
ICE Cocoa Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe
417,143 200,351 290,245 34,193 16,497 30,617
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
100.0% 48.0% 69.6% 8.2% 4.0% 7.3%
Number of Traders in Each Category
152 44 47 15 8 12
Reportable Positions
===============================================================================
Managed Money
Other Reportables
Long Short Spreading Long
Short Spreading
===============================================================================
69,210 2,173 34,871 3,148
718 39,445
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
16.6% 0.5% 8.4% 0.8% 0.2% 9.5%
Number of Traders in Each Category
38 8 15
11 13 23
Nonreportable Positions
=======================
Long Short
=======================
5,308 2,577
Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each
Category of Trader
1.3% 0.6%
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performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve
substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this
report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or
completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed
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