MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS

                                       

 

Jack Scoville

 

Monday, October 21, 2019

 

 


Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

jslsa@comcast.net


 

 

 

COTTON           

General Comments:  Cotton was higher on follow through buying tied to talk that the US and China were close to a partial deal that would allow agricultural exports to flow to China in exchange for a truce in the tariff increases.  Cotton producers hope that China will buy some Cotton from the US but China has not been doing this.  It has concentrated on Soybeans and Pork purchases instead.  The market is still finding support from deteriorating crop conditions.  Weekly USDA reports still show a tale of two crops with some crops very good to excellent but some crops very poor.  This trend has been a feature of the market all year as the Texas Panhandle and nearby areas have been very hot and dry for a big part of the growing season.  Crops in the southeast have seen perhaps too much rain and much cooler weather.  Another system moved through southern Georgia and through the Carolinas with some significant rain that might hurt Cotton quality.  The weekly report showed increased stress in the southeast last week.  The export demand remains weak. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should see mostly dry weather after some showers and storms today, and Southeast should see showers and storms over the middle of the week, otherwise dry weather.  Temperatures should be near to below normal.  Texas will have mostly dry conditions after rains in the east today.  Temperatures will be near to below normal.  The USDA average price is now 62.30 ct/lb.  ICE said that certified stocks are now 10,435 ba1es, from 10,435 bales yesterday.

Chart Trends:  Trends in Cotton are mixed to up with objectives of 6590, 6650, and 6670 December.  Support is at 6460, 6400, and 6370 December, with resistance of 6540, 6580, and 6750 December.

 

DJ On-Call Cotton - Oct 18

   As of Oct 11. On-call positions represent spot cotton sold to or

purchased from a merchant, based on New York cotton futures contracts

of 500-pound bales. Prices are not yet fixed against these contracts.

Source: CFTC 

   *-denotes changes from the previous week are based on revised data from

last week. 

              Call  Previous   Change       Call  Previous  Change

             Sales                     Purchases

Dec 19       24,185    24,369     -184     31,957    36,163  -4,206

Mar 20       27,048    26,798      250     10,588     8,253   2,335

May 20       11,805    11,533      272      1,236     1,155      81

Jul 20       16,267    15,416      851      2,468     2,320     148

Dec 20       11,205    11,262      -57     19,489    19,386     103

Mar 21        3,947     3,949       -2        574       574       0

May 21        1,636     1,638       -2          0         0       0

Jul 21        2,809     2,812       -3          0         0       0

Dec 21          440       440        0        824       824       0

Mar 22          440       440        0          0         0       0

Total        99,782    98,657    1,125     67,136    68,675  -1,539

              Open      Open   Change

               Int       Int

Oct 19            0         1       -1

Dec 19      134,005   135,138   -1,133

Mar 20       69,514    63,818    5,697

May 20        9,471     8,794      677

Jul 20        9,539     8,457    1,082

Dec 20       17,612    17,445      167

Mar 21        1,158     1,156        2

May 21          196       196        0

Jul 21          327       350      -23

Dec 21            3         2        1

Mar 22            0         0        0

Total       241,825   235,356    6,469

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019               

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COTTON NO. 2 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                   

CFTC Code #033661                                                              Open Interest is   310,955

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   28,122    47,207    86,886    96,611   139,623    83,593    25,265   295,212   298,981:   15,742    11,974

    : Changes from: October 8, 2019            (Change in open interest:       2,300)         :

    :      172   -12,603     2,862      -569    13,324      -406       334     2,059     3,918:      241    -1,618

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      9.0      15.2      27.9      31.1      44.9      26.9       8.1      94.9      96.1:      5.1       3.9

    : Total Traders:   302          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :       73        96        95        60        64        51        26       244       226:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

FCOJ

General Comments:  FCOJ was slightly higher in range trading.  Futures have held the same rang for months now and show no signs of going higher or lower.  Good growing conditions and increased oranges production estimates by USDA are bearish, but the market seems to have found a minimum area for now.  USDA estimated Florida production at 74 million boxes.  The weather has been great for the trees as there have been frequent periods of showers and no hurricanes or other severe storms so far this year.  Some areas have been dry lately and some irrigation has been used.  A storm moved through central and northern areas of the state over the weekend but mostly brought rain.  Crop yields and quality should be high for Florida this year.  Inventories of FCOJ in the state are high and are more than 30% above last year.  Rains are falling in Brazil and trees should be flowering now.    

Overnight News:  Florida should get scattered showers and storms over the middle of the week, otherwise mostly dry weather.  Temperatures will average near to above normal.   Brazil should get scattered showers this week and drier weather this weekend and above normal temperatures.   

Chart Trends:  Trends in FCOJ are mixed.  Support is at 98.00, 96.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 101.00, 104.00, and 105.00 September.

 

Disaggregated Commitments of Traders- Options and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019 

:                                             Reportable Positions                                             :

:------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :

: Producer/Merchant :                             :                             :                              :

:  Processor/User   :        Swap Dealers         :        Managed Money        :      Other Reportables       :

:   Long  :  Short  :   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading:   Long  :  Short  :Spreading :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

FRZN CONCENTRATED ORANGE JUICE - ICE FUTURES U.S.   (CONTRACTS OF 15,000 POUNDS)                               :

CFTC Code #040701                                                    Open Interest is    22,069                :

: Positions                                                                                                    :

:   11,771     8,324     1,092         0        70       725     6,818       319     1,072       895     3,451 :

: Changes from:     October 8, 2019                                                                            :

:        2      -338        44         0         0       -94      -179        76       -75         3      -345 :

: Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                                              :

:     53.3      37.7       4.9       0.0       0.3       3.3      30.9       1.4       4.9       4.1      15.6 :

: Number of Traders in Each Category                                  Total Traders:    77                     :

:       24        14         6         0         .         .        19         .        15         5        13 :

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

COFFEE 

General Comments:  Futures were lower on a lack of buying interest rather than any big new selling interest.  Trends in both markets are down.  New York was higher despite more reports of good flowering in Brazil as Real started to rally against the US Dollar.  The Real rallied after testing recent lows.  London has been the weaker market as the Asian harvest is underway.  Vietnam exports remain behind a year ago, but the market anticipates bigger offers as producers and traders will need to create new storage space and are expected to do this by selling old crop Coffee.  The Arabica growing areas got needed rains to start the flowering last week and reports indicate that flowering is off to a very good start.  More rain is expected this weekend or early next week.  Many now anticipate a big crop from Brazil next year.  However, there was some extreme cold and drought conditions earlier in the year that might have stressed trees and could hurt production potential for this year despite the good weather now.  Vietnam crops are thought to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year.  It has been warm and dry at times, then the growing areas have seen some very heavy rains.  The rains are more moderate now.  Demand has been quiet over the last couple of weeks.  Differentials have been stable but buyers are not aggressive.

Overnight News:  ICE certified stocks are higher today at 2.256 million bags.  The ICO daily average price is now 95.39 ct/lb.  Brazil will get scattered showers into next week with above normal temperatures.  Vietnam will see scattered showers in all areas. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 94.00, 91.00, and 88.00 December, and resistance is at 98.00, 99.00 and 100.00 December.  Trends in London are down with no objectives.   Support is at 1180, 1150, and 1120 November, and resistance is at 1230, 1250, and 1280 November.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019                

    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable

    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions

    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total

    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

COFFEE C - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                        

CFTC Code #083731                                                              Open Interest is   360,385

    : Positions                                                                               :

    :   27,587    86,177    90,724   141,445   135,938    72,492    31,187   332,247   344,027:   28,138    16,358

    : Changes from: October 8, 2019            (Change in open interest:      32,400)         :

    :    1,252    12,056     7,912    16,002     6,738     3,538     3,696    28,704    30,402:    3,696     1,998

    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :

    :      7.7      23.9      25.2      39.2      37.7      20.1       8.7      92.2      95.5:      7.8       4.5

    : Total Traders:   469          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :

    :      132       136       137       121       103        47        27       380       339:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Robusta Coffee Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 10/15/2019  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/

                    Processor/User                    Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Robusta Coffee Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  176,751       109,851       63,729        18,123        10,514        2,104  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        62.2%        36.1%          10.3%         5.9%          1.2%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    172           59            45            15            6             13  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long        Short      Spreading

===============================================================================  

    4,850        62,230       11,084     4,135       3,666       16,439  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   2.7%          35.2%          6.3%     2.3%         2.1%          9.3%

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     11            43            16       14           13            20  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

  10,165      6,985  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  5.8%        4.0%

 

SUGAR               

General Comments:  Futures closed higher on Friday but lower for the week as the US Dollar.  London was also higher on Friday but lower for the week as it appears that lower production in Europe has been priced into the market.  Futures remain in a trading range but have been showing that some weakness is still around.  Europe and Russia are probably buying in the world market after poor growing seasons.  Reports of improving weather in Brazil imply good crops there.  World petroleum prices are relatively cheap and are not supporting ethanol demand ideas.  Reports from India indicate that the country is seeing relatively good growing conditions and still holds large inventories from last year.  The weather there has improved with the monsoon and some areas are seeing some excessive rains The weather has been much more uneven in production areas from Russia into western Europe.  Those areas had a very hot and dry start to the growing season and there are reports of crop losses this year. 

Overnight News:  Brazil will get scattered showers into next week.  Temperatures should be near normal.    

Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to down with objectives of 1190 March.  Support is at 1220, 1210, and 1190 March, and resistance is at 1240, 1260, and 1290 March.  Trends in London are down with objectives of 331.00 and 322.00 December.  Support is at 333.00, 331.00, and 326.00 December, and resistance is at 337.00, 343.00, and 348.00 December.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019                
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SUGAR NO. 11 - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                    
CFTC Code #080732                                                              Open Interest is 1,033,815
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   88,284   274,648   181,910   380,326   400,561   292,250    95,471   942,770   952,590:   91,044    81,225
    : Changes from: October 8, 2019            (Change in open interest:      13,269)         :
    :    5,042     8,163    -4,405     1,437    -5,223      -477       176     1,597    -1,288:   11,672    14,557
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :      8.5      26.6      17.6      36.8      38.7      28.3       9.2      91.2      92.1:      8.8       7.9
    : Total Traders:   268          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       63        70        86        80        66        40        22       225       207:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe White Sugar Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 10/15/2019

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                Producer/Merchant/

                   Processor/User                     Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE White Sugar Futures and Options- ICE Futures Europe

  104,598       46,665        64,544        13,738        1,294         1,767  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        44.6%        61.7%          13.1%         1.2%          1.7%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    139           46            48            7             5             9  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long        Short      Spreading

===============================================================================  

   16,974        14,139       10,002     3,933       1,562        6,716  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   16.2%         13.5%         9.6%      3.8%         1.5%          6.4%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     26            19            14       8            9             16  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   4,803      4,574  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   4.6%       4.4%

 

COCOA              

General Comments:  Futures closed a little lower again Friday and lower for the week as the market continues to correct following the rally attempt earlier in the week.  Chart trends are turning down.  Ideas of increasing harvest pressure kept the sellers interested.  The reports from West Africa imply that a big harvest is possible in the region, but no one knows how to handle to new marketing and producer support programs imposed by the governments of Ivory Coast and Ghana.  Ivory Coast arrivals are off to a fast start and are above year ago levels two weeks into the season.  The weather in Ivory Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers.  The precipitation is a little less now so there are no real concerns about disease.  Ideas are that the next crop will be very good.  Both Ivory Coast and Ghana are doing what they can do boost Cocoa prices and maintain good earnings for producers by paying a living wage differential and are looking to regulate the flow of Cocoa into the world market.  The moves could force the big Cocoa processors and grinders to pay more as they contract for Cocoa well in advance to ensure adequate supplies.

Overnight News:  Scattered showers and storms are expected in West Africa.  Temperatures will be on both sides of normal.  Malaysia and Indonesia should see showers.  Temperatures should average above normal.  Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures.  ICE certified stocks are lower today at 3.548 million bags. 

Chart Trends:  Trends in New York are mixed.  Support is at 2460, 2440, and 2410 December, with resistance at 2550, 2560, and 2570 December.  Trends in London are mixed to down with no objectives.  Support is at 1870, 1850, and 1830 December, with resistance at 1930, 1950, and 1990 December.

 

COT -- Supplemental Report - Option and Futures Combined Positions as of October 15, 2019                
    :                                    Reportable Positions                                 :    Nonreportable
    :---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- :      Positions
    :         Non-Commercial      :      Commercial   :     Index Traders :        Total
    :    Long :   Short :Spreading:    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short :    Long :   Short
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
COCOA - ICE FUTURES U.S.                                                                                           
CFTC Code #073732                                                              Open Interest is   347,024
    : Positions                                                                               :
    :   43,481    33,861    89,573   132,879   181,945    62,882    25,365   328,814   330,744:   18,210    16,280
    : Changes from: October 8, 2019            (Change in open interest:       5,951)         :
    :    2,933    -2,247       990     2,215     6,095    -1,307      -325     4,831     4,514:    1,120     1,437
    : Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader                         :
    :     12.5       9.8      25.8      38.3      52.4      18.1       7.3      94.8      95.3:      5.2       4.7
    : Total Traders:   240          Number of Traders in Each Category                        :
    :       83        56        96        39        44        35        19       211       175:
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

DJ ICE Commitments: ICE Europe Cocoa Futures/Options

Commitments of Traders-Options and Futures

Combined Positions as of 10/15/2019  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================

                 Producer/Merchant/

                   Processor/User                     Swap Dealers  

    OI           Long         Short          Long         Short       Spreading

===============================================================================

ICE Cocoa Futures and Options - ICE Futures Europe  

  417,143       200,351      290,245        34,193        16,497       30,617  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

  100.0%        48.0%        69.6%          8.2%          4.0%          7.3%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

    152           44            47            15            8             12  

                         Reportable Positions

===============================================================================  

            Managed Money                       Other Reportables  

    Long         Short       Spreading   Long        Short      Spreading

===============================================================================  

   69,210         2,173       34,871     3,148       718         39,445  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   16.6%          0.5%          8.4%     0.8%         0.2%          9.5%  

Number of Traders in Each Category  

     38            8             15       11           13            23  

Nonreportable Positions

=======================  

   Long       Short

=======================  

   5,308      2,577  

Percent of Open Interest Represented by Each Category of Trader  

   1.3%       0.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604  |  (800) 769-7021  |  (312) 264-4322 (Direct)   |  www.pricegroup.com

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or futures.

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