MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Friday, October
18, 2019
DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals - Oct 18
For the
week ended Oct 11, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in
thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments
are gross sales,
less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward
adjustments. Total
commitments are total export shipments plus total
sales.
The
marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1, cotton and
and rice Aug 1, corn, soybeans and sorghum Sep 1,
and soymeal and
soyoil Oct 1. Source: USDA
wk's net chg total
in commitments
commitments undlvd sales
this yr next yr this yr
last yr this yr next yr
wheat
395.1 0.0 13821.6
12059.2 4384.5 8.9
hrw 162.6 0.0
5192.9 3409.1 1296.9
0.0
srw 34.8 0.0
1728.5 1497.0
590.1 4.2
hrs 145.8
0.0 3774.2 3778.1
1302.0 4.8
white 50.8 0.0
2629.3 3061.7 1011.1
0.0
durum 1.2 0.0
496.9 313.3 184.5
0.0
corn
368.6 -0.1 10364.5
21088.2 7726.7 127.3
soybeans
1601.0 0.0 17988.4
20740.7 13004.1 3.0
soymeal
152.9 0.0 3616.1
4052.1 3237.1 66.2
soyoil
4.0 0.0 199.9
176.3 155.9 0.0
upland cotton
206.5 0.0 9135.6
9156.0 7078.8 696.1
pima cotton
4.6 0.0 202.6
295.7 121.3 0.0
sorghum
118.1 0.0 266.9
157.5 223.1 0.0
barley
0.0 0.0 57.5
55.6 39.5 0.0
rice 52.4
0.0 1386.5 903.9
679.6 0.0
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher again on reports of strong
world prices. Egypt paid higher prices
for Russian, Ukrainian, and French Wheat at its tender this week. The sale has provided some room for US prices
to rally. The charts still suggest that
higher prices should continue. Futures have
been supported lately by the very cold weather and snow that moved through
parts of the Great Plains and the western half of the Midwest. The snow buried some of the remaining Spring
Wheat harvest and made planting the Winter Wheat that much more difficult. Some of the Spring Wheat will be lost or will
see reduced quality. Winter Wheat planting
and emergence has been good until now.
The weather will start to moderate this week but the damage has been
done. Wheat in the Canadian Prairies has
seen the same wet and cold weather and reports of yield and quality losses are
now being heard. Winter Wheat planting
is slow in parts of Europe, mostly France, due to dry weather. The world cash market is firm. Export demand for US Wheat has been
fair.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry
conditions. Temperatures should be below
normal. The Canadian Prairies should see
mostly dry weather. Temperatures should
be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of
538 December. Support is at 515, 511,
and 504 December, with resistance at 527, 529, and 543 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives
of 433, 434, and 436 December. Support
is at 426, 417, and 414 December, with resistance at 433, 439, and 444 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with
objectives of 564 and 581 December.
Support is at 551, 544, and 541 December, and resistance is at 558, 560,
and 563 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was
slightly higher in range trading. The Long
Grain harvest is winding down amid mixed yield reports and grains markets
including Rice usually start to rally once the bulk of the harvest has
passed. It is the tail end of harvest
and some speculators are hoping for producer selling. Some producers are delivering on contracts
but most will be content to wait and see how the prices act over the next few
weeks. The potential for tight supplies
in Long Grain Rice are there and should support futures prices. The harvest is winding down in all areas
except California and field yields appear to be generally below last year. Milling quality is said to be lower on later
harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the
harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly
dry conditions. Temperatures should be
near to above normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1179, and 1173 November,
with resistance at 1208, 1217, and 1220 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed a little higher
on demand hopes and weather worries and Oats closed lower in correction trading
after making new highs for the move on Wednesday and then failing to hold. Its possible that the Oats rally is running
out of steam as the weather in Canada is said to be improving. Corn carry spreads were weak and that implies
that some Corn was moving in cash markets.
Cash selling has not been confirmed and most producers are more
interested in checking crops for damage after the cold weekend or harvesting. It was a freeze even in many areas and the
growing season ended in these areas.
Some crops were damaged and loss estimates are around 200 million
bushels for now. Conditions remain
better east of the Mississippi as temperatures did not get below freezing
except for far northern areas that do not really produce grain or oilseeds. Demand remains hard to find. Demand ideas remain weak as there have been
very few announcements of big sales of Corn in the daily system and as EPA
released its plan to restore ethanol demand that the ag side said could hurt
farmers more than help.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 388, 385, and 378 December, and
resistance is at 397, 399, and 403 December.
Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 294, 289, and 284 December, and
resistance is at 305, 309, and 312 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher as China said the two sides were actively talking to complete a Phase
One deal by November so both presidents can sign it, but could not really hold
the rally and on ideas of increasing harvest selling. USDA showed greater than expected harvest
progress in the reports released Tuesday as farmers have decided to harvest
Soybeans before Corn. There is also talk
that producers in South America are starting some sales of the next crop as the
Real has become weak and is testing recent lows. There has been no new indication of demand
from China and this has kept some speculators away from buying. The trade wants to see Soybeans being bought
and shipped, but ideas are that none of this will happen right away. China could wait now until a more formal
agreement is in place. Soybean Oil was
firm on spreads against Soybean Meal. The
weather has started to moderate after the big chill and snow of last week and
traders are looking for loss reports.
Ideas currently are that about 30 million bushels of Soybeans were
lost. The market will start to listen to
yield reports from the country for both Soybeans and Corn to see if the lower
yields are justified. It is possible
that yields for both products will be lower than the latest USDA estimates. The market will also start to keep a closer
eye on the weather in South America. It
has been too dry in parts of central and northern Brazil and the planting
progress has been delayed. There are
forecasts for more rains to allow better planting progress appearing in the
next couple of weeks.
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 945 November. Support is at 927, 924, and 919 November, and
resistance is at 945, 950, and 960 November.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 302.00 and
296.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00,
and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives
of 3120 December. Support is at 3020, 3000,
and 2980 December, with resistance at 3070, 3110, and 3130 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower as the
Canadian Dollar was very strong and the US Dollar was very weak. The weather is starting to improve for harvesting
but there is talk of losses due to cold and snowy weather earlier. The market has held in a trading range for
the last week or so and should be able to break out one way or another. The breakout will probably be down as the
harvest gets rolling again. Harvesting
is almost complete in Saskatchewan and is moving to completion in Manitoba. Palm Oil was higher despite worries that
weaker export demand would continue.
Soybean Oil was higher. A weaker
currency and word that Malaysia will try to improve diplomatic relations with
India after recent disparaging comments made in Malaysia about is biggest buyer
helped the market move higher. Vegetable
oils are firm and Palm Oil is trying to form a bottom. The charts show that futures are turning
trends up again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 455.00, 451.00, and 450.00 November, with resistance at 461.00, 465.00,
and 468.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil
are up with objectives of 2310 January.
Support is at 2230, 2220, and 2190 January, with resistance at 2280, 2300,
and 2320 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry
conditions through Saturday, then showers.
Temperatures should average near to below normal.
|
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
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Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean
Meal
|
Soybean
Oil
|
|
Octember
|
+37
Dec
|
+170
Dec
|
+75
Dec
|
+37
Nov
|
+12
Dec
|
N/A
|
|
November
|
+43
Dec
|
|
+85
Dec
|
+40
Nov
|
|
|
|
December
|
+52
Dec
|
|
+85
Dec
|
+30
Jan
|
|
|
|
All basis levels are positive unless noted as
negative
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DJ ICE Canada
Cash Grain Close - Oct 16
WINNIPEG -- The
following are the closing cash
canola prices
from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE
Futures
Price Basis
Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par
Region 433.40 -28.00
Nov 2019 up 1.50
Basis:
Thunder Bay 470.00 10.00
Nov 2019 dn 1.40
Basis:
Vancouver 480.00 20.00
Nov 2019 dn 1.40
All prices in
Canadian dollars per metric tonne.
*Quote for
previous day
Source:
Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com,
or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 18
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes
& Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Bid Change Traded
Oct 535.00
0.00 Unquoted -
-
Nov 535.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Dec 542.50 0.00
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50
0.00 Unquoted
- -
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 537.50 0.00
Unquoted - -
Nov 537.50 0.00
Unquoted - -
Dec 545.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00
0.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 535.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 435.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer
Change Bid Change
Traded
Oct 2,160.00 -20.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 144.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1850)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 18
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 135,616
lots, or 4.68 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 3,366
3,366 3,366 0
0 282
Jan-20 3,416
3,435 3,405 3,419
3,408 3,422 14
121,584 186,150
Mar-20 -
- - 3,444
3,444 3,444 0
0 34
May-20 3,699
3,708 3,686 3,695
3,694 3,697 3
12,936 67,830
Jul-20 -
- - 3,716
3,716 3,716 0
0 28
Sep-20 3,767
3,773 3,754 3,761
3,761 3,762 1 1,096
6,478
Corn
Turnover:
885,712 lots, or 16.56 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,806
1,819 1,806 1,818
1,805 1,814 9
2,242 12,930
Jan-20 1,848
1,861 1,847 1,859
1,847 1,855 8
650,256 1,243,780
Mar-20 1,870
1,882 1,869 1,880
1,870 1,878 8
99,852 325,580
May-20 1,923
1,931 1,921 1,927
1,920 1,926 6
119,022 546,058
Jul-20 1,950
1,955 1,950 1,953
1,946 1,951 5
380 8,270
Sep-20 1,968
1,979 1,968 1,973
1,970 1,974 4
13,960 70,640
Soymeal
Turnover:
4,009,140 lots, or 11.90 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,000
3,046 3,000 3,015
3,000 3,018 18
3,032 7,370
Dec-19 2,990
3,047 2,990 3,014 2,998
3,018 20 56,582
252,122
Jan-20 2,969
3,019 2,968 2,986
2,966 2,992 26
2,644,642 2,234,162
Mar-20 2,952
2,985 2,942 2,946
2,936 2,961 25
176 798
May-20 2,893
2,945 2,884 2,900
2,887 2,914 27
1,140,754 1,509,108
Jul-20 2,907
2,955 2,898 2,912
2,899 2,925 26
258 4,918
Aug-20 2,931
2,938 2,907 2,915
2,898 2,926 28
12 50
Sep-20 2,945
2,986 2,932 2,947
2,931 2,956 25
163,684 304,492
Palm Oil
Turnover:
655,056 lots, or 31.66 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 -
- - 4,880
4,880 4,880 0
0 0
Nov-19 -
- - 4,836
4,836 4,836 0
0 4
Dec-19 -
- - 4,812
4,812 4,812 0
0 6
Jan-20 4,804
4,834 4,782 4,808
4,816 4,808 -8
595,480 465,102
Feb-20 -
- - 4,898
4,898 4,898 0 0
708
Mar-20 -
- - 4,968
4,976 4,968 -8
0 4
Apr-20 -
- - 4,978
4,978 4,978 0
0 6
May-20 5,094
5,108 5,056 5,086
5,082 5,082 0
58,528 180,764
Jun-20 -
- - 5,096
5,096 5,096 0
0 6
Jul-20 -
- - 5,072
5,072 5,072 0
0 602
Aug-20 -
- - 5,040
5,040 5,040 0
0 2
Sep-20 5,128
5,146 5,100 5,126 5,124
5,124 0 1,048
17,956
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
730,388 lots, or 44.12 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 5,966
5,966 5,966 0
0 4
Dec-19 -
- - 5,888
5,888 5,888 0
0 10
Jan-20 6,032
6,064 6,002 6,034
6,022 6,034 12
587,118 674,682
Mar-20 6,110
6,112 6,074 6,074
6,074 6,074 0
206 698
May-20 6,078
6,094 6,028 6,056
6,068 6,062 -6
134,936 292,272
Jul-20 -
- - 6,072
6,078 6,072 -6
0 526
Aug-20 -
- - 5,978
5,982 5,978 -4
0 0
Sep-20 6,118
6,134 6,076 6,098
6,112 6,110 -2
8,128 56,396
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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