MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Thursday,
October 17, 2019
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on news that Egypt paid
higher prices for Russian, Ukrainian, and French Wheat at its tender yesterday. The sale shows that world prices are turning
up and that has provided some room for US prices to rally as well. The charts still suggest that higher prices
are coming this week. Futures have been
supported lately by the very cold weather and snow that moved through parts of
the Great Plains and the western half of the Midwest. The snow buried some of the remaining Spring
Wheat harvest and made planting the Winter Wheat that much more difficult. Some of the Spring Wheat will be lost or will
see reduced quality. Winter Wheat
planting and emergence has been good until now.
The weather will start to moderate this week but the damage has been
done. Wheat in the Canadian Prairies has
seen the same wet and cold weather and reports of yield and quality losses are
now being heard. Winter Wheat planting
is slow in parts of Europe, mostly France, due to dry weather. The world cash market is firm. Export demand for US Wheat has been fair.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry weather this week. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see mostly dry
conditions. Temperatures should be below
normal. The Canadian Prairies should see
mostly dry weather. Temperatures should
be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are up with objectives of
521, 522, and 538 December. Support is
at 504, 501, and 497 December, with resistance at 515, 522, and 527 December. Trends in Kansas City are up with objectives
of 433, 434, and 436 December. Support
is at 417, 414, and 401 December, with resistance at 428, 433, and 439 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to up with
objectives of 564 and 581 December.
Support is at 544, 541, and 536 December, and resistance is at 552, 557,
and 560 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was higher on what appeared to be
speculative buying after holding the lows of Tuesday. There was no real news to prompt the rally,
but the Long Grain harvest is winding down amid mixed yield reports and grains
markets including Rice usually start to rally once the bulk of the harvest has
passed. It is the tail end of harvest
and some speculators are hoping for producer selling. Some producers are delivering on contracts
but most will be content to wait and see how the prices act over the next few
weeks. The potential for tight supplies
in Long Grain Rice are there and should support futures prices. The harvest is winding down in all areas
except California and field yields appear to be generally below last year. Milling quality is said to be lower on later
harvested Rice but was very good for the early harvested Rice. Basis levels are reported to be firmer as the
harvest comes to an end and the Rice gets put in on farm storage.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry
conditions. Temperatures should be near
to above normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1183, 1179, and 1173 November,
with resistance at 1208, 1217, and 1220 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn closed unchanged to a
little lower and Oats closed lower after making new highs for the move. Its possible that the Oats rally is running
out of steam as the weather in Canada is said to be improving. Corn carry spreads were weak and that implies
that some Corn was moving in cash markets.
Cash selling has not been confirmed and most producers are more
interested in checking crops for damage after the cold weekend or harvesting. It was a freeze even in many areas and the
growing season ended in these areas. Some
crops were damaged and loss estimates are around 200 million bushels for now. Conditions remain better east of the
Mississippi as temperatures did not get below freezing except for far northern
areas that do not really produce grain or oilseeds. Demand remains hard to find. Demand ideas remain weak as there have been
very few announcements of big sales of Corn in the daily system and as EPA
released its plan to restore ethanol demand that the ag side said could hurt
farmers more than help.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 388, 385, and 378 December, and
resistance is at 393, 397, and 399 December.
Trends in Oats are up with no objectives. Support is at 299, 294, and 289 December, and
resistance is at 305, 309, and 312 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were lower on fears that the US side is overstating the deal with China and on
ideas of increasing harvest selling. USDA
showed greater than expected harvest progress in the reports released Tuesday
as farmers have decided to harvest Soybeans before Corn. There is also talk that producers in South
America are starting some sales of the next crop as the Real has become weak
and is testing recent lows. There has
been no new indication of demand from China and this has kept some speculators
away from buying. The trade wants to see
Soybeans being bought and shipped, but ideas are that none of this will happen
right away. China could wait now until a
more formal agreement is in place.
Soybean Oil was firm on spreads against Soybean Meal. The weather has started to moderate after the
big chill and snow of last week and traders are looking for loss reports. Ideas currently are that about 100 million
bushels of Soybeans were lost. The
market will start to listen to yield reports from the country for both Soybeans
and Corn to see if the lower yields are justified. It is possible that yields for both products
will be lower than the latest USDA estimates.
The market will also start to keep a closer eye on the weather in South
America. It has been too dry in parts of
central and northern Brazil and the planting progress has been delayed. There are forecasts for more rains to allow
better planting progress appearing in the next couple of weeks.
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 945 November. Support is at 924, 919, and 911 November, and
resistance is at 933, 945, and 960 November.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to down with objectives of 302.00 and
296.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00,
and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 312.00, and 314.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are up with objectives of
3120 December. Support is at 3020, 3000,
and 2980 December, with resistance at 3070, 3110, and 3130 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was a little lower on
price action in Chicago. The weather is
starting to improve for harvesting but there is talk of losses due to cold and
snowy weather earlier. The market has
held in a trading range for the last week or so and should be able to break out
one way or another. The breakout will
probably be down as the harvest gets rolling again. Harvesting is almost complete in Saskatchewan
and is moving to completion in Manitoba.
Palm Oil was higher despite worries that weaker export demand would
continue. A weaker currency and word
that Malaysia will try to improve diplomatic relations with India after recent
disparaging comments made in Malaysia about is biggest buyer helped the market
move higher. Vegetable oils are firm and
Palm Oil is trying to form a bottom. The
charts show that futures are turning trends up again.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are mixed. Support
is at 458.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 465.00, 468.00,
and 469.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil
are mixed to up with objectives of 2260 and 2310 January. Support is at 2230, 2220, and 2190 January,
with resistance at 2260, 2280, and 2300 January.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Mostly dry
conditions through Saturday, then showers.
Temperatures should average near to below normal.
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US Gulf Cash Basis
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Corn
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HRW
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SRW
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Soybeans
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Soybean Meal
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Soybean Oil
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Octember
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+37 Dec
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+170 Dec
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+75 Dec
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+37 Nov
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+12 Dec
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N/A
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November
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+42 Dec
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+85 Dec
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+43 Nov
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December
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+51 Dec
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+85 Dec
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+39 Jan
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All basis levels
are positive unless noted as negative
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DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 16
WINNIPEG -- The following are the closing cash
canola prices from ICE Futures.
Source: ICE Futures
Price Basis Contract Change
CANOLA
*Par Region
433.40 -28.00 Nov 2019
up 1.50
Basis: Thunder Bay
470.00 10.00 Nov 2019
dn 1.40
Basis: Vancouver
480.00 20.00 Nov 2019
dn 1.40
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric
tonne.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or 204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 17
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker
Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 535.00
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
Nov 535.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 542.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 537.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Nov 537.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 545.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 535.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 435.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 2,180.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 144.00 +02.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1820)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 17
Soybean No. 1
Turnover: 154,496
lots, or 5.33 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch. Vol
Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,375
3,375 3,348 3,348
3,370 3,366 -4
10 282
Jan-20 3,426
3,438 3,385 3,416
3,419 3,408 -11
132,498 194,210
Mar-20 - -
- 3,444 3,444
3,444 0 0
34
May-20 3,688
3,708 3,681 3,700
3,694 3,694 0
18,128 69,538
Jul-20 3,702
3,730 3,702 3,730
3,724 3,716 -8
4 28
Sep-20 3,768
3,780 3,742 3,762
3,768 3,761 -7
3,856 5,998
Corn
Turnover:
624,220 lots, or 11.61 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,805
1,810 1,800 1,805
1,805 1,805 0
2,506 12,854
Jan-20 1,849
1,854 1,843 1,848
1,848 1,847 -1
465,228 1,191,138
Mar-20 1,871
1,875 1,866 1,870
1,867 1,870 3
78,978 313,070
May-20 1,919
1,925 1,916 1,920
1,920 1,920 0
67,248 531,176
Jul-20 1,947
1,949 1,942 1,948
1,945 1,946 1
208 8,250
Sep-20 1,965
1,973 1,965 1,970
1,968 1,970 2
10,052 69,200
Soymeal
Turnover:
1,647,356 lots, or 48.64 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch. Vol
Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,013
3,016 2,991 3,000
3,013 3,000 -13
5,664 7,984
Dec-19 2,986
3,005 2,985 3,002
3,003 2,998 -5
63,074 247,972
Jan-20 2,972
2,976 2,953 2,968
2,976 2,966 -10
1,233,558 2,164,974
Mar-20 2,932
2,946 2,924 2,946
2,939 2,936 -3
70 774
May-20 2,891
2,896 2,876 2,892 2,889
2,887 -2 306,370
1,307,128
Jul-20 2,899
2,906 2,891 2,906
2,900 2,899 -1
62 4,914
Aug-20 2,892
2,906 2,892 2,906
2,905 2,898 -7
8 50
Sep-20 2,934
2,940 2,919 2,935
2,933 2,931 -2
38,550 257,630
Palm Oil
Turnover:
906,430 lots, or 43.88 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 -
- - 4,880
4,880 4,880 0
0 0
Nov-19 -
- - 4,836
4,836 4,836 0
0 4
Dec-19 4,738
4,870 4,738 4,870
4,866 4,812 -54
6 6
Jan-20 4,812
4,850 4,788 4,800
4,772 4,816 44
824,590 479,584
Feb-20 - -
- 4,898 4,854
4,898 44 0
708
Mar-20 -
- - 4,976
4,932 4,976 44
0 4
Apr-20 -
- - 4,978
4,934 4,978 44
0 6
May-20 5,078
5,114 5,060 5,078
5,048 5,082 34
79,148 180,020
Jun-20 -
- - 5,096
5,096 5,096 0
0 6
Jul-20 -
- - 5,072
5,072 5,072 0
0 602
Aug-20 -
- - 5,040
5,008 5,040 32
0 2
Sep-20 5,118
5,148 5,106 5,118
5,092 5,124 32
2,686 17,352
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
727,526 lots, or 43.88 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 5,966
5,966 5,966 0
0 4
Dec-19 -
- - 5,888
5,888 5,888 0
0 10
Jan-20 5,994
6,050 5,994 6,032
5,974 6,022 48
595,192 688,984
Mar-20 6,058
6,096 6,058 6,060
6,016 6,074 58
10 504
May-20 6,062
6,092 6,048 6,066
6,038 6,068 30
126,330 289,472
Jul-20 -
- - 6,078
6,048 6,078 30
0 526
Aug-20 -
- - 5,982
5,982 5,982 0
0 0
Sep-20 6,100
6,128 6,090 6,108
6,078 6,112 34 5,994
53,024
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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