MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Friday, October
11, 2019
DJ USDA Report: Summary for U.S. Agriculture
Supply, Demand Report
Following are key numbers from the USDA's
crop report Thursday and how the government's estimates compared to analysts'
forecasts in a Wall Street Journal survey.
U.S. 2019
Corn, Soybean Production (million bushels)
Thursday's Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast
Range Sept.
Corn
Production 13,779.0 13,611
13,173-13,758 13,799
Corn
Yield 168.4 166.8
164.5-169.3 168.2
Harvested
Acres 81.8 81.5
80.1-82.0 82.0
Soybean
Production 3,550.0 3,571
3,473-3,634 3,633
Soybean
Yield 46.9 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9
Harvested
Acres 75.6 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9
****
U.S. 2019-20
Stockpiles (millions)
Thursday's Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast
Range Sept.
Corn 1,929.0 1,684
1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 460.0 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,043.0 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
****
World
Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Thursday's Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast
Range Sept.
Corn 324.0 323.8
319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 109.9 110.7
109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.7 277.5
276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Thursday's Average USDA
USDA Est. Forecast
Range Sept.
Corn 302.6 296.1
291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 95.2 96.9
92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 287.8 285.7
280.5-288.7 286.5
DJ USDA
Supply/Demand: Crop Summary - Oct 10
U.S. ending stocks in million bushels, except
soyoil in million pounds,
cotton in million (480 pound) bales and rice
in million cwt. Exports and
Production in million metric tons except
cotton in million (480 pound) bales.
Projections based on trends and analysts'
judgments, not survey
date. Source: USDA's World Agricultural
Outlook Board.
======U.S.======
================WORLD=======================
Ending Stocks Exports Production
19/20 18/19
17/18: 19/20 18/19 17/18: 19/20 18/19
17/18
Soybeans 460.0
913.0 438.0:149.39 148.69
153.07:338.97 358.77 341.62
Brazil
na na
na: 76.50 75.40 76.14:123.00 117.00
122.00
Argentina
na na na:
8.00 8.15 2.13: 53.00 55.30
37.80
China
na na na:
0.13 0.12 0.13: 17.10 15.90
15.28
Soyoil 1,525
1,710 1,995: 11.87 11.33
10.54: 57.20 56.12 55.15
Corn 1,929
2,114 2,140:166.59 177.88
147.78: 1,104 1,123 1,078
China
na na na:
0.02 0.02 0.02:254.00 257.33
259.07
Argentina
na na na: 33.50 36.00
22.00: 50.00 51.00 32.00
S.Africa
na na na:
1.50 1.00 2.07: 14.00 11.50
13.10
Cotton(a) 7.00
4.85 4.20: 42.91 41.23
41.41:124.77 119.01 123.78
All
Wheat 1,043 1,080
1,099:179.68 173.16 181.90:765.23 730.50
762.31
China
na na na:
1.30 1.01 1.00:132.00 131.43
134.33
EU 27
na na na: 28.00 23.31
23.38:152.00 136.86 151.13
Canada
na na na: 24.50 24.41
22.00: 33.00 32.20 30.38
Argentina
na na na: 14.50 12.30
12.73: 20.50 19.50 18.50
Australia
na na na:
9.50 9.00 13.85: 18.00 17.30
20.94
Russia
na na na: 34.00 35.40
41.43: 72.50 71.69 85.17
Ukraine
na na na: 19.50 16.02
17.78: 28.70 25.06 26.98
Sorghum 52.0
64.0 35.0: na
na na: na
na na
Barley 97.0
87.0 94.0: na
na na: na
na na
Oats 37.0
38.0 41.0: na
na na: na
na na
Rice 37.1
44.9 29.4: 45.88 45.28
47.13:497.77 498.95 494.86
DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Crop of 120.4M
Tons for 2019-2020 Season
By Jeffrey
T. Lewis
SAO
PAULO--Brazilian crop agency expects the country's farmers to produce a record
amount of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season as producers increase the area
planted and better weather is expected for the end of this year.
Brazilian
farmers will grow 120.4 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which
planting has already started, an increase of 4.7% from the 2018-2019 season,
when 115 million tons were produced. The area planted is forecast to rise 1.9%
to 36.6 million hectares.
Unusually hot
and dry weather in some soybean-producing states at the end of last year and
the start of this year reduced yields for the 2018-2019 season in areas, leading
to a smaller crop in the season than the record 119.3 million tons grown in
2017-2018.
The relatively
small increase in the area planted is due to uncertainty about international
demand in the face of the continuing trade dispute between the US, normally the
world's biggest soybean producer, and China, the world's biggest consumer,
Conab said.
Lower prices and the increasing cost of
opening up new areas for planting also contributed to the slower increase in
area planted, according to the agency.
Brazilian
farmers will produce a smaller total corn crop in 2019-2020, of 98.4 million
metric tons, down 1.7% from the record 100 million tons produced in 2018-2019,
Conab said.
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Oct 11
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity
Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL
October Oct. 14, 2019 180 Oct 09, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL
October Oct. 14, 2019 20
Oct 04, 2019
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were lower on increased world and US
ending stocks estimates and reduced US demand for the current crop year. The support in the Minneapolis market was not
strong despite a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great
Plains and in western Canada this week. Very
little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it
seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter
crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting
planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in
the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest
Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting
underway.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and
drier weather this weekend. Temperatures
should be variable. Northern areas should
see a big storm hit the rest of this week.
Temperatures should be below normal.
The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm
moves out in the next day or two.
Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed. Support is at 487, 485, and 481 December,
with resistance at 500, 504, and 506 December.
Trends in Kansas City are mixed.
Support is at 401, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 408, 414,
and 418 December. Trends in Minneapolis
are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 531, 522, and 518 December, and
resistance is at 536, 541, and 546 December.
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was a
little higher once again. USDA showed
improved yields in Arkansas and higher production. Ending stocks were increased as USDA made no
changes to demand. World data showed
that there is plenty of Rice around. The
weekly export sales report was strong.
Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many
producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although
quality reports have held up.
Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading
mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are
reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year
and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being
harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and
Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market
has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly
dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are up with no objectives. Support is at 1200, 1188, and 1183 November,
with resistance at 1220, 1226, and 1227 November.
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn were lower in response to the USDA
reports. Oats closed higher. USDA showed a slight increase in yield and
this caught the market by surprise as most had looked for USDA to trim yield
potential to some degree. USDA also made
significant changes to the demand side by cutting 150 million bushels from
export demand and 50 million bushels from ethanol demand. Ending stocks for the current crop year were
above trade expectations. Futures fell
rapidly to support areas but some of the trad expects the market to continue to
sink and to move back to 360 basis December futures. However, there is still the uncertain weather
to talk about. Ideas that crops in the
Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that
is starting near the Rocky Mountains provided some support. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze
event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as
the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind
and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are mixed. Support is at 377, 375, and 370 December, and
resistance is at 384, 388, and 393 December.
Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 284, 281, and 279 December, and
resistance is at 290, 293, and 294 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans closed slightly lower and Soybean Meal was lower, mostly
in sympathy with Corn and Wheat. News
that China had offered to buy a lot of US ag goods under a smaller trade deal
provided a little support. Soybeans
export sales were huge last week and the major part of the demand came from
China. USDA cut yields by one bushel per
acre and increased domestic demand to show ending socs below most trade
expectations. Questions about the US
agreeing to a trade deal with China kept futures from doing more on the rally. Forecasts for a significant Winter storm with
freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western
Midwest. The market is also concerned
about the weather that will happen this weekend. There is the risk of significant quality
losses and perhaps yield losses from the event.
USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop
condition in its reports Monday night.
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 935, 942, and 945 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and
resistance is at 934, 936, and 941 November.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00,
312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is
at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00,
and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean
Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2950, 2930, and 2920 December,
with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was lower in response
to the USDA reports. Support came from firm
prices in Chicago Soybean Oil, but weakness came from weaker Soybeans and
Soybean Meal. Snow is expected in Manitoba
today but cold weather are expected through the weekend. Reports indicate that the harvest is only
about one third complete. Palm Oil was lower. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand
for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a
new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a
rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 375,117 tons, from
357,570 tons last month. AmSpec said
exports are now 368,737 tons, down 6.2% from last month.
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00
November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December,
with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.
DJ Malaysia's September Palm Oil Exports 1.41M
Tons; Down 19% -MPOB
Malaysia's
palm oil exports were down 19% on month at 1.41 million metric tons in
September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.
The following are details of the September crop data
and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:
September
August Change
On Month
Crude Palm
Oil Output 1,842,433 1,821,548
Up 1.15%
Palm
Oil Exports 1,409,945 1,735,645
Dn 18.77%
Palm Kernel Oil Exports 79,428
89,489 Dn 11.24%
Closing Stocks 2,448,272 2,240,523
Up 9.27%
Crude Palm Oil 1,353,087 1,290,578
Up 4.84%
Processed Palm Oil 1,095,185 949,945
Up 15.29%
Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers
possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below
normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.
|
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
|
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Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean Meal
|
Soybean Oil
|
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Octember
|
+33 Dec
|
+165 Dec
|
+65 Sep
|
+31 Nov
|
+12 Dec
|
N/A
|
|
November
|
+42 Dec
|
|
+80 Dec
|
+42 Nov
|
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December
|
+50 Dec
|
|
+87 Dec
|
+38 Jan
|
|
|
|
All basis levels
are positive unless noted as negative
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DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 10
WINNIPEG--The following are the closing cash canola prices from
ICE Futures for Oct. 10, 2019.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis Contract
Change
*Par Region
438.30 -25.00 Nov 2019
dn 4.50
Track Thunder Bay
469.50 10.00 Nov 2019
dn 3.80
Track Vancouver
479.50 20.00 Nov 2019
dn 3.80
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
*Quote for previous day
Source: Commodity News Service Canada
(news@marketsfarm.com, or
204-414-9084)
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 11
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Friday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes
& Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 530.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Nov 532.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 537.50
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
Jan/Feb/Mar 557.50
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 532.50 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Nov 535.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Dec 540.00 -02.50
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 560.00
-02.50 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 530.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 427.50 -02.50 Unquoted
- -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 2,130.00 0.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 140.00 -01.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1865)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 11
Soybean No. 1
Turnover:
141,678 lots, or 4.90 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 -
- - 3,371
3,371 3,371 0
0 290
Jan-20 3,403
3,440 3,393 3,438
3,401 3,418 17
120,318 195,746
Mar-20 -
- - 3,405
3,405 3,405 0
0 34
May-20 3,670
3,700 3,670 3,687
3,690 3,688 -2
20,964 59,366
Jul-20 -
- - 3,727
3,727 3,727 0 0
24
Sep-20 3,738
3,759 3,734 3,742
3,743 3,743 0
396 3,470
Corn
Turnover:
844,964 lots, or 15.72 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,800
1,814 1,797 1,814
1,796 1,804 8
9,268 28,586
Jan-20 1,838
1,848 1,831 1,847
1,835 1,840 5
576,958 1,324,016
Mar-20 1,868
1,881 1,866 1,879
1,868 1,871 3
94,090 266,434
May-20 1,913
1,923 1,909 1,921
1,912 1,916 4
135,100 512,750
Jul-20 1,938
1,951 1,936 1,946
1,938 1,944 6
5,882 8,378
Sep-20 1,965
1,979 1,964 1,974
1,966 1,972 6
23,666 71,410
Soymeal
Turnover:
2,891,024 lots, or 85.43 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,986
3,020 2,971 3,011
2,967 2,997 30
16,956 14,884
Dec-19 2,967
3,024 2,967 3,019
2,976 3,003 27
109,720 195,834
Jan-20 2,960
2,998 2,948 2,989
2,951 2,974 23
1,862,894 2,153,052
Mar-20 2,931
2,972 2,929 2,964
2,929 2,956 27
236 790
May-20 2,880
2,927 2,868 2,920
2,870 2,901 31
774,800 1,130,936
Jul-20 2,885
2,933 2,877 2,927
2,878 2,910 32
4,328 4,956
Aug-20 2,941
2,941 2,940 2,940
2,898 2,940 42
4 54
Sep-20 2,925
2,967 2,916 2,960
2,911 2,942 31
122,086 188,918
Palm Oil
Turnover:
588,656 lots, or 28.55 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 -
- - 4,880
4,880 4,880 0
0 0
Nov-19 -
- - 4,836
4,836 4,836 0
0 4
Dec-19 4,864
4,872 4,864 4,872
4,786 4,866 80
26 6
Jan-20 4,792
4,846 4,776 4,826
4,792 4,800 8
492,484 479,846
Feb-20 -
- - 4,890
4,862 4,890 28
0 714
Mar-20 4,972
5,054 4,972 5,054
4,948 5,012 64
4 4
Apr-20 -
- - 5,010
5,010 5,010 0
0 6
May-20 5,072
5,144 5,056 5,118
5,066 5,096 30
92,880 161,764
Jun-20 -
- - 5,084
5,056 5,084 28
0 8
Jul-20 -
- - 5,100 4,904
5,100 196 0
602
Aug-20 -
- - 5,000
4,972 5,000 28
0 2
Sep-20 5,134
5,194 5,120 5,164
5,134 5,176 42
3,262 13,172
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
664,288 lots, or 40.01 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 6,028
6,028 6,028 6,028
5,942 6,028 86
4 4
Dec-19 -
- - 5,900
5,900 5,900 0
0 12
Jan-20 5,986
6,058 5,972 6,044
5,986 6,010 24
563,242 712,236
Mar-20 -
- - 6,082
6,058 6,082 24
0 512
May-20 6,070
6,128 6,052 6,104
6,066 6,082 16 93,172
251,242
Jul-20 -
- - 6,100
6,084 6,100 16
0 526
Aug-20 -
- - 5,982
5,968 5,982 14
0 0
Sep-20 6,108
6,166 6,106 6,136 6,112
6,124 12 7,870
32,704
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is
day's settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can
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