Grains Comments 10/10/2019

MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

Jack Scoville

Thursday, October 10, 2019

Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024

jslsa@comcast.net

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates -- Survey

CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.

U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)

Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2018

Corn Production 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799 14,420

Corn Yield 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2 176.4

Harvested Acres 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0 81.7

Soybean Production 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633 4,544

Soybean Yield 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9 51.6

Harvested Acres 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9 88.1

Corn Harvestd Soybean Harvested

Production Yield Acres Production Yield Acres

Advanced Market 13,446 166.0 81.0 3,548 47.0 75.5

AgriSource 13,688 166.7 82.0 3,551 46.8 75.9

Allendale 13,755 167.7 N/A 3,604 47.5 N/A

DC Analysis 13,678 166.8 82.0 3,593 47.4 75.9

Doane 13,500 165.0 81.8 3,565 47.0 75.9

EDF Man 13,735 167.5 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9

Farm Futures 13,758 167.9 82.0 3,634 47.9 75.9

Grain Cycles 13,738 167.5 82.0 3,604 47.5 75.9

INTL FCStone 13,646 169.3 80.6 3,583 48.1 74.5

Kapco Futures 13,724 168.2 81.6 3,593 47.7 75.3

Sid Love Consulting 13,325 164.5 81.0 3,567 47.0 75.9

North Star Commodity 13,732 168.5 81.5 3,574 47.1 75.9

Prime Ag 13,570 166.5 81.5 3,529 46.5 75.9

RJO Brien 13,653 166.5 N/A 3,559 46.9 N/A

RMC 13,529 166.0 81.5 3,473 46.0 75.5

US Commodities 13,653 166.5 82.0 3,582 47.2 75.9

VantageRM 13,694 167.0 82.0 3,567 47.0 75.9

Western Milling 13,173 164.5 80.1 3,591 46.5 77.2

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey

CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.

U.S. Stockpiles (millions)

2019-20

Average Range USDA Sept.

Corn 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190

Soybeans 510 388-584 640

Wheat 1,014 965-1,054 1,014

2019-20

Corn Soybeans Wheat

Advanced Market Concepts 1,450 505 1,005

AgriSource 1,727 448 1,025

Allendale 1,905 582 1,037

DC Analysis 1,597 505 1,004

Doane 1,600 465 1005

EDF Man 1,794 482 1,026

Farm Futures 1,963 533 1,047

Grain Cycles 1,762 552 1,017

INTL FCStone 1,665 584 1,002

Kapco Futures 1,758 520 1,010

Sid Love Consulting 1,489 500 984

North Star Commodity 1,842 535 980

Prime-Ag 1,779 469 1,025

RJO Brien 1,612 510 1,054

RMC 1,689 388 1,025

US Commodities 1,612 498 1,041

VantageRM 1,808 581 999

Western Milling 1,257 521 965

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey

CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2018-19

Average Range USDA Sept.

Corn 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6

Soybeans 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4

Wheat 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2

2019-20

Average Range USDA Sept.

Corn 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3

Soybeans 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2

Wheat 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5

2018-19 2019-20

Corn Soybeans Wheat Corn Soybeans Wheat

Advanced Market 319.0 109.0 276.0 296.0 97.0 283.0

Allendale 322.2 110.6 278.5 300.9 97.8 288.7

Doane 321.0 110.0 277.5 292.5 95.0 285.5

EDF Man N/A N/A N/A 296.0 95.0 284.0

Farm Futures N/A N/A N/A 298.0 96.3 286.7

INTL FCStone 321.0 113.0 276.3 295.8 108.8 286.9

North Star Comm 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 95.5 286.0

Prime-Ag 320.0 111.0 278.0 294.0 95.0 287.0

RMC 321.2 109.8 280.0 291.4 92.3 287.5

US Commodities 329.6 109.1 277.2 291.0 95.1 280.5

Western Milling 330.0 112.0 277.2 301.0 98.0 287.0

DJ U.S. Export Sales: Weekly Sales Totals - Oct 10

For the week ended Oct 3, in thousand metric tons, except cotton in

thousand running bales. Net changes in commitments are gross sales,

less cancellations, buy-backs and other downward adjustments. Total

commitments are total export shipments plus total sales.

The marketing year for wheat and barley began Jun 1. The

marketing year for cotton and rice began Aug 1. The marketing

year for corn, soybeans and sorghum began Sep 1.

For soymeal and soyoil, "this year" is the 2019-2020 marketing

year, which began Oct 1, while "Last year" is 2018-19.

Source: USDA

wk's net change total

in commitments commitments undlvd sales

this year next year this yr last yr this yr next yr

wheat 521.9 0.0 13426.6 11596.1 4500.4 8.9

hrw 150.3 0.0 5030.4 3379.0 1323.2 0.0

srw 20.9 0.0 1693.7 1466.8 588.6 4.2

hrs 75.4 0.0 3628.3 3501.6 1302.2 4.8

white 224.2 0.0 2578.4 2965.8 1081.9 0.0

durum 51.1 0.0 495.8 282.9 204.5 0.0

corn 284.5 0.0 9996.0 20705.7 7914.8 127.4

soybeans 2092.5 3.0 16387.4 20548.7 12359.2 3.0

soymeal 1167.3-a 0.0 3463.1 3948.0 3386.0 66.2

soyoil 127.1-b 0.0 195.9 149.7 191.4 0.0

upland cotton 188.8 -5.3 8929.2 9123.3 7024.0 696.1

pima cotton 9.6 0.0 198.0 290.8 122.7 0.0

sorghum 13.7 0.0 148.9 157.5 105.2 0.0

barley 0.0 0.0 57.5 55.7 40.7 0.0

rice 99.8 0.0 1334.2 879.1 665.0 0.0

-a: Includes new sales activity for Sep 27-Oct 3, which resulted

in a net increase of 364.7 thousand metric tons. Also includes

802.6 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

2018-19.

-b: Includes new sales activity for Sep 27-Oct 3, which resulted

in a net increase of 1.2 thousand metric tons. Also includes

125.9 thousand metric tons of undelivered sales carried over from

2018-19.

DJ Brazil Forecasts Record Soybean Crop of 120.4M Tons for 2019-2020 Season

By Jeffrey T. Lewis

SAO PAULO--Brazilian crop agency expects the country's farmers to produce a record amount of soybeans in the 2019-2020 season as producers increase the area planted and better weather is expected for the end of this year.

Brazilian farmers will grow 120.4 million metric tons of soybeans this season, for which planting has already started, an increase of 4.7% from the 2018-2019 season, when 115 million tons were produced. The area planted is forecast to rise 1.9% to 36.6 million hectares.

Unusually hot and dry weather in some soybean-producing states at the end of last year and the start of this year reduced yields for the 2018-2019 season in areas, leading to a smaller crop in the season than the record 119.3 million tons grown in 2017-2018.

The relatively small increase in the area planted is due to uncertainty about international demand in the face of the continuing trade dispute between the US, normally the world's biggest soybean producer, and China, the world's biggest consumer, Conab said.

Lower prices and the increasing cost of opening up new areas for planting also contributed to the slower increase in area planted, according to the agency.

Brazilian farmers will produce a smaller total corn crop in 2019-2020, of 98.4 million metric tons, down 1.7% from the record 100 million tons produced in 2018-2019, Conab said.

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Oct 10

Source: CME Group

Contract Quantity Next Trade

Commodity Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL October Oct. 11, 2019 159 Oct 07, 2019

SOYBEAN OIL October Oct. 11, 2019 41 Oct 03, 2019

WHEAT

General Comments: Wheat markets were mixed as the big Winter storm arrived in the Great Plains and created some support for HRW. Russia and Ukraine sold a lot of Wheat to Egypt to support HRW as well.. Chicago SRW and Minneapolis were a little lower. The support in the Minneapolis market came despite a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week. Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway. USDA will issue another monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks levels are anticipated for this month. The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised next month.

Overnight News: The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend. Temperatures should be variable. Northern areas should see a big storm hit the rest of this week. Temperatures should be below normal. The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm moves out in the next day or two. Temperatures should be below normal.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 510 December. Support is at 492, 487, and 485 December, with resistance at 506, 512, and 515 December. Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 417, 425, and 433 December. Support is at 408, 401, and 399 December, with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December. Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.

RICE

General Comments: Rice was higher once again as the long grain harvest is coming to the end. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up. Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.

Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis : Trends are mixed. Support is at 1179, 1173, and 1162 November, with resistance at 1205, 1220, and 1226 November.

CORN AND OATS

General Comments : Corn and Oats closed mostly lower on weaker ethanol demand data. Ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains provided some support. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely. USDA will issue a production estimate but probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country. Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa and in a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical averages in many areas east of the river. Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year. The export pace is down to almost half of last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year. That could keep ending stocks projections relatively higher in the reports.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 396, 397, and 404 December. Support is at 388, 385, and 381 December, and resistance is at 397, 401, and 403 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on hews that China had offered to buy a lot of US ag goods under a smaller trade deal. Then the US sanctioned Chinese officials for mistreatment of Muslims in the country and now there are ideas tht little or no progress will be made. forecasts for a significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western Midwest. The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this week. There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night. Traders are waiting now for the next round of production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday. Harvest activities are only now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production will be less than normal. Initial yield reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less is still a big question. USDA will also have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o be resolved. Demand so far has been good but how USDA sees demand is an open question. Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these ideas should help support futures prices this week. The next round of US-China trade talks get underway today and the trade is not expecting a positive outcome

Overnight News: China bought 398,000 tons of US Soybeans.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 925, 927, and 932 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and resistance is at 924, 936, and 941 November. Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00, 312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

CANOLA AND PALM OIL

General Comments: Canola was lower on some position squaring before the USDA reports today. Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow is expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end of the week. Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one third complete. Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets. Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today. Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates. The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range. Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.

Overnight News: SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 375,117 tons, from 357,570 tons last month. AmSpec said exports are now 368,737 tons, down 6.2% from last month.

Chart Analysis: Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

DJ Malaysia's September Palm Oil Exports 1.41M Tons; Down 19% -MPOB

Malaysia's palm oil exports were down 19% on month at 1.41 million metric tons in September, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said.

The following are details of the September crop data and revised numbers for August, issued by MPOB:

September August Change

On Month

Crude Palm Oil Output 1,842,433 1,821,548 Up 1.15%

Palm Oil Exports 1,409,945 1,735,645 Dn 18.77%

Palm Kernel Oil Exports 79,428 89,489 Dn 11.24%

Closing Stocks 2,448,272 2,240,523 Up 9.27%

Crude Palm Oil 1,353,087 1,290,578 Up 4.84%

Processed Palm Oil 1,095,185 949,945 Up 15.29%

Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
Octember	+33 Dec	+165 Dec	+65 Sep	+31 Nov	+12 Dec	N/A
November	+42 Dec		+80 Dec	+42 Nov
December	+50 Dec		+87 Dec	+38 Jan
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 9

WINNIPEG--The following are the closing cash canola prices from

ICE Futures for Oct. 9, 2019.

Source: ICE Futures

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid

Spot Price Basis Contract Change

*Par Region 442.80 -22.00 Nov 2019 up 2.80

Track Thunder Bay 473.30 10.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.50

Track Vancouver 483.30 20.00 Nov 2019 dn 1.50

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

*Quote for previous day

Source: Commodity News Service Canada (news@marketsfarm.com, or

204-414-9084)

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 10

The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Thursday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports