MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS

 

Jack Scoville

 

Wednesday, October 09, 2019

 

 


Price Futures Group, CBOT

Chicago, IL

(312) 264-4322

jscoville@pricegroup.com

 

JSL, SA de CV

San Salvador, El Salvador (503) 2260-7806 jslsadecv@comcast.net

 

JSL, SA

San José, Costa Rica (506) 2282-7024 

jslsa@comcast.net

 


 

 

 

DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean Production Estimates -- Survey

  CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday. 

U.S. 2019 Production (million bushels, bushels per acre) 

                      Average       Range             USDA Sept.  USDA 2018

Corn Production         13,611  13,173-13,758             13,799     14,420

Corn Yield               166.8   164.5-169.3               168.2      176.4

Harvested Acres           81.5    80.1-82.0                 82.0       81.7 

Soybean Production       3,571   3,473-3,634               3,633      4,544

Soybean Yield             47.1    46.0-48.1                 47.9       51.6

Harvested Acres           75.8    74.5-77.2                75.9        88.1 

                                Corn   Harvestd             Soybean Harvested

                   Production   Yield    Acres    Production  Yield   Acres

Advanced Market      13,446     166.0     81.0      3,548     47.0     75.5

AgriSource           13,688     166.7     82.0      3,551     46.8     75.9

Allendale            13,755     167.7     N/A       3,604     47.5     N/A

DC Analysis          13,678     166.8     82.0      3,593     47.4     75.9

Doane                13,500     165.0     81.8      3,565     47.0     75.9

EDF Man              13,735     167.5     82.0      3,567     47.0     75.9

Farm Futures         13,758     167.9     82.0      3,634     47.9     75.9

Grain Cycles         13,738     167.5     82.0      3,604     47.5     75.9

INTL FCStone         13,646     169.3     80.6      3,583     48.1     74.5

Kapco Futures        13,724     168.2     81.6      3,593     47.7     75.3

Sid Love Consulting  13,325     164.5     81.0      3,567     47.0     75.9

North Star Commodity 13,732     168.5     81.5      3,574     47.1     75.9

Prime Ag             13,570     166.5     81.5      3,529     46.5     75.9

RJO Brien            13,653     166.5     N/A       3,559     46.9     N/A

RMC                  13,529     166.0     81.5      3,473     46.0     75.5

US Commodities       13,653     166.5     82.0      3,582     47.2     75.9

VantageRM            13,694     167.0     82.0      3,567     47.0     75.9

Western Milling      13,173     164.5     80.1      3,591     46.5     77.2

 

DJ U.S. October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey

  CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.

U.S. Stockpiles (millions)

2019-20

                         Average    Range     USDA Sept.

Corn                      1,684  1,257-1,963       2,190

Soybeans                   510     388-584           640

Wheat                     1,014   965-1,054        1,014 

                                   2019-20

                          Corn    Soybeans      Wheat

Advanced Market Concepts  1,450      505        1,005

AgriSource                1,727      448        1,025

Allendale                 1,905      582        1,037

DC Analysis               1,597      505        1,004

Doane                     1,600      465        1005

EDF Man                   1,794      482        1,026

Farm Futures              1,963      533        1,047

Grain Cycles              1,762      552        1,017

INTL FCStone              1,665      584        1,002

Kapco Futures             1,758      520        1,010

Sid Love Consulting       1,489      500         984

North Star Commodity      1,842      535         980

Prime-Ag                  1,779      469        1,025

RJO Brien                 1,612      510        1,054

RMC                       1,689      388        1,025

US Commodities            1,612      498        1,041

VantageRM                 1,808      581         999

Western Milling           1,257      521         965

 

DJ October World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey

  CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET. 

World Stockpiles (million metric tons)

2018-19

                   Average     Range       USDA Sept.

Corn                 323.8  319.0-330.0        329.6

Soybeans             110.7  109.0-113.0        112.4

Wheat                277.5  276.0-280.0        277.2 

2019-20

                  Average      Range     USDA Sept.

Corn                 296.1  291.0-301.0        306.3

Soybeans              96.9  92.3-108.8          99.2

Wheat                285.7  280.5-288.7        286.5 

                              2018-19                         2019-20

                  Corn       Soybeans     Wheat        Corn  Soybeans    Wheat

Advanced Market   319.0        109.0      276.0     296.0       97.0     283.0

Allendale         322.2        110.6      278.5     300.9       97.8     288.7

Doane             321.0        110.0      277.5     292.5       95.0     285.5

EDF Man            N/A          N/A        N/A      296.0       95.0     284.0

Farm Futures       N/A          N/A        N/A      298.0       96.3     286.7

INTL FCStone      321.0        113.0      276.3     295.8      108.8     286.9

North Star Comm   330.0        112.0      277.2     301.0       95.5     286.0

Prime-Ag          320.0        111.0      278.0     294.0       95.0     287.0

RMC               321.2        109.8      280.0     291.4       92.3     287.5

US Commodities    329.6        109.1      277.2     291.0       95.1     280.5

Western Milling   330.0        112.0      277.2     301.0       98.0     287.0

 

DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Oct 9

Source: CME Group  

               Contract                         Quantity   Next Trade

Commodity      Month      Delivery Day    Assigned Today   Date Available

SOYBEAN MEAL   October    Oct. 10, 2019              179   Oct 07, 2019

SOYBEAN OIL    October    Oct. 10, 2019               52   Oct 02, 2019

 

WHEAT                                 

General Comments:  Wheat markets were higher on what appeared to be speculative buying tied the threat for a big Winter storm to hit the US and also for cold and wet weather in Canada.  Chicago SRW was the strongest as it felt the most speculative interest.  The support in the Minneapolis market came in response to a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains and in western Canada this week.  Very little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada.  Good progress was made in planting the Winter crops.  The Winter Wheat crop is getting planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in the Pacific Northwest.  Southern Midwest Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting underway.  USDA will issue another monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks levels are anticipated for this month.  The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised next month.  

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and drier weather this weekend.  Temperatures should be variable.  Northern areas should see a big storm hit the rest of this week.  Temperatures should be below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm moves out in the next day or two.  Temperatures should be below normal.    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with objectives of 502, 506, and 510 December.  Support is at 492, 487, and 485 December, with resistance at 506, 512, and 515 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed to up with objectives of 417, 425, and 433 December.  Support is at 408, 401, and 399 December, with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December.  Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December.  Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December, and resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.

 

DJ Russia, Ukraine Sell 295,000 Tons of Wheat to Egypt's GASC -- Market Talk

     0724 GMT - Russia and Ukraine restored their dominance as Egypt's wheat suppliers, selling five cargoes of the grain to the world's biggest wheat importer late Tuesday. Egypt's state-importing agency bought 180,000 metric tons of Russian wheat and 115,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat at an average FOB price of $221.64 a ton, according to price-reporting firm AgriCensus. Prices rose from Egypt's previous tender on Oct. 1, when the General Authority for Supply Commodities booked 60,000 tons of French wheat at $219.35 a ton. Tuesday's tender was seen as a test of whether French wheat would remain competitive with Eastern European grain following a strong harvest in the European Union's agricultural powerhouse. The wheat is due to be delivered from Nov. 10-20. (joe.wallace@wsj.com)

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice was higher as the long grain harvest is coming to the end.  Harvest activities are about over in Gulf Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year.  Smut has been a big problem in Texas although quality reports have held up.  Mississippi yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2.  Arkansas yield reports are reported to be holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested.  Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two.  Demand for long grains in the export market has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer. 

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday.  Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are mixed.  Support is at 1179, 1173, and 1162 November, with resistance at 1200, 1205, and 1220 November.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Oct 9

  USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA

                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.18         9.05       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    13.85         9.28       0.00

Brokens                8.55         ----       ----

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn and Oats closed higher on ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains.  Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas.  USDA showed that progress remains far behind and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely.  USDA will issue a production estimate but probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country.  Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa and in a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical averages in many areas east of the river.  Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year.  The export pace is down to almost half of last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year. That could keep ending stocks projections relatively higher in the reports.

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 396, 397, and 404 December.  Support is at 388, 385, and 381 December, and resistance is at 397, 401, and 403 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to up with objectives of 290 and 304 December.  Support is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on forecasts for a significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great Plains and the western Midwest.  The market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this week.  There is the risk of significant quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event.  USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night.  Traders are waiting now for the next round of production and supply and demand reports that will be released on Thursday.  Harvest activities are only now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production will be less than normal.  Initial yield reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less is still a big question.  USDA will also have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o be resolved.  Demand so far has been good but how USDA sees demand is an open question.  Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these ideas should help support futures prices this week.  The next round of US-China trade talks get underway on Thursday and the trade is not expecting a positive outcome           

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 925, 927, and 932 November.  Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and resistance is at 924, 936, and 941 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00, 312.00, and 320.00 December.  Support is at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00, and 312.00 December.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December.  Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December, with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was higher on slow harvest progres.  Support also came from the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil.  Snow is expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end of the week.  Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one third complete.  Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets and reports of improving demand.  Vegetable oils and Crude Oil are firm today.  Traders anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private surveyors release estimates.  The charts show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the bottoming range.  Higher competing vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.

Overnight News:

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November.  Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00 November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

 

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Showers possible later this week with some snow far western areas.  Temperatures should average near to below normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis

Corn

HRW

SRW

Soybeans

Soybean Meal

Soybean Oil

Octember

+37 Dec

+165 Dec

+65 Sep

+30 Nov

+12 Dec

N/A

November

+43 Dec

+80 Dec

+40 Nov

December

+51 Dec

+85 Dec

+38 Jan

All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 8

     By MarketsFarm 

     WINNIPEG, Oct. 8 (MarketsFarm) - The following are the closing

cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday, Oct. 8.

   Source:  ICE Futures 

CANOLA

1 Canada NCC Best Bid 

               Spot Price     Basis    Contract     Change

*Par Region         440.60    -22.00    Nov 2019   up  1.90

Track Thunder Bay   474.80     10.00    Nov 2019   up  2.20

Track Vancouver     484.80     20.00    Nov 2019   up  2.20 

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 9

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           532.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Nov           537.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Dec           542.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Jan/Feb/Mar   562.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           535.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Nov           540.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Dec           545.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Jan/Feb/Mar   565.00     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           532.50     +05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           432.50     +02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           2,150.00   +25.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           141.00     +01.00      Unquoted   -        -  

($1=MYR4.1960)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 09

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 125,216 lots, or 4.30 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Nov-19  3,382  3,382  3,322  3,360   3,346   3,356   10       30       290

Jan-20  3,380  3,413  3,376  3,410   3,375   3,395   20  110,044   215,058

Mar-20  -          -      -  3,404   3,355   3,404   49        0        34

May-20  3,660  3,708  3,660  3,706   3,674   3,694   20   13,662    70,058

Jul-20  3,736  3,736  3,736  3,736   3,708   3,736   28        2        24

Sep-20  3,726  3,770  3,725  3,770   3,734   3,751   17    1,478     3,182  

Corn

Turnover: 884,552 lots, or 16.30 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Nov-19  1,786  1,793  1,783  1,789   1,785   1,787    2   21,276     33,512

Jan-20  1,823  1,832  1,820  1,830   1,821   1,825    4  564,152  1,315,366

Mar-20  1,845  1,863  1,845  1,863   1,845   1,850    5  135,578    190,068

May-20  1,895  1,906  1,889  1,905   1,892   1,897    5  142,926    474,220

Jul-20  1,916  1,932  1,916  1,928   1,917   1,926    9    1,094      4,824

Sep-20  1,950  1,961  1,945  1,960   1,948   1,952    4   19,526     62,588  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 2,522,924 lots, or 73.71 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Nov-19  2,961  2,987  2,948  2,981   2,962   2,974   12     51,942     32,650

Dec-19  2,937  2,990  2,937  2,988   2,967   2,975    8     95,538    134,786

Jan-20  2,910  2,960  2,910  2,959   2,925   2,942   17  1,741,556  2,012,548

Mar-20  2,896  2,935  2,893  2,928   2,898   2,920   22        130        810

May-20  2,807  2,869  2,803  2,869   2,807   2,846   39    548,080    892,866

Jul-20  2,807  2,875  2,807  2,875   2,812   2,838   26        358      1,614

Aug-20  2,876  2,885  2,862  2,885   2,825   2,883   58        102         54

Sep-20  2,838  2,912  2,838  2,912   2,842   2,886   44     85,218    138,944  

Palm Oil

Turnover: 579,644 lots, or 27.84 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Oct-19  -          -      -  4,880   4,880   4,880    0        0         0

Nov-19  -          -      -  4,836   4,836   4,836    0        0         4

Dec-19  -          -      -  4,742   4,742   4,742    0        0         4

Jan-20  4,714  4,800  4,712  4,792   4,696   4,766   70  506,652   468,372

Feb-20  -          -      -  4,912   4,912   4,912    0        0       716

Mar-20  -          -      -  4,948   4,876   4,948   72        0         2

Apr-20  -          -      -  4,916   4,916   4,916    0        0         4

May-20  4,992  5,082  4,988  5,072   4,974   5,044   70   70,480   138,072

Jun-20  -          -      -  5,132   5,132   5,132    0        0         6

Jul-20  -          -      -  4,976   4,976   4,976    0        0       602

Aug-20  -          -      -  5,046   4,976   5,046   70        0         2

Sep-20  5,064  5,142  5,060  5,136   5,044   5,108   64    2,512    10,942  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 632,474 lots, or 37.91 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Nov-19  5,942  5,942  5,942  5,942   6,030   5,942  -88        4         4

Dec-19  -          -      -  5,900   5,894   5,900    6        0        12

Jan-20  5,940  6,012  5,934  5,998   5,932   5,978   46  517,420   688,428

Mar-20  6,026  6,026  6,026  6,026   5,974   6,026   52        2       510

May-20  6,002  6,084  5,990  6,076   5,996   6,048   52  105,620   242,398

Jul-20  6,042  6,092  6,042  6,092   6,036   6,066   30       30       526

Aug-20  -          -      -  5,952   5,924   5,952   28        0         0

Sep-20  6,074  6,140  6,074  6,120   6,062   6,120   58    9,398    23,210  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 



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