MORNING GRAINS COMMENTS
Jack
Scoville
Wednesday,
October 09, 2019
DJ U.S. Corn, Soybean
Production Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts'
estimates for 2019 U.S. corn and soybean production in millions of bushels, as
compiled by The Wall Street Journal. Yield estimates are in bushels per acre
and harvested acres are in million acres. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is
scheduled to release its monthly estimates at noon on Thursday.
U.S. 2019
Production (million bushels, bushels per acre)
Average Range USDA Sept. USDA 2018
Corn
Production 13,611 13,173-13,758 13,799 14,420
Corn
Yield 166.8 164.5-169.3 168.2 176.4
Harvested
Acres 81.5 80.1-82.0 82.0 81.7
Soybean
Production 3,571 3,473-3,634 3,633 4,544
Soybean Yield 47.1 46.0-48.1 47.9 51.6
Harvested
Acres 75.8 74.5-77.2 75.9 88.1
Corn Harvestd Soybean Harvested
Production Yield
Acres Production Yield
Acres
Advanced
Market 13,446 166.0
81.0 3,548 47.0
75.5
AgriSource 13,688 166.7
82.0 3,551 46.8
75.9
Allendale 13,755 167.7
N/A 3,604 47.5
N/A
DC
Analysis 13,678 166.8
82.0 3,593 47.4
75.9
Doane 13,500 165.0
81.8 3,565 47.0
75.9
EDF Man 13,735 167.5
82.0 3,567 47.0
75.9
Farm Futures 13,758 167.9
82.0 3,634 47.9
75.9
Grain
Cycles 13,738 167.5
82.0 3,604 47.5
75.9
INTL
FCStone 13,646 169.3
80.6 3,583 48.1
74.5
Kapco
Futures 13,724 168.2
81.6 3,593
47.7 75.3
Sid Love
Consulting 13,325 164.5
81.0 3,567 47.0
75.9
North Star
Commodity 13,732 168.5 81.5
3,574 47.1 75.9
Prime Ag 13,570 166.5
81.5 3,529 46.5
75.9
RJO
Brien 13,653 166.5
N/A 3,559 46.9
N/A
RMC 13,529 166.0
81.5 3,473 46.0
75.5
US
Commodities 13,653 166.5
82.0 3,582 47.2
75.9
VantageRM 13,694 167.0
82.0 3,567 47.0
75.9
Western
Milling 13,173 164.5
80.1 3,591 46.5
77.2
DJ U.S.
October Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts' estimates
in millions of bushels for U.S. ending stockpiles for 2019-20, as compiled by
The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to
release updated supply and demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
U.S.
Stockpiles (millions)
2019-20
Average Range
USDA Sept.
Corn 1,684 1,257-1,963 2,190
Soybeans 510 388-584 640
Wheat 1,014 965-1,054 1,014
2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Advanced
Market Concepts 1,450 505
1,005
AgriSource 1,727 448
1,025
Allendale 1,905 582
1,037
DC Analysis 1,597 505
1,004
Doane 1,600 465
1005
EDF Man 1,794 482
1,026
Farm
Futures 1,963 533
1,047
Grain
Cycles 1,762 552
1,017
INTL
FCStone 1,665 584
1,002
Kapco
Futures 1,758 520
1,010
Sid Love
Consulting 1,489 500 984
North Star
Commodity 1,842 535 980
Prime-Ag 1,779 469
1,025
RJO
Brien 1,612 510
1,054
RMC 1,689 388
1,025
US
Commodities 1,612 498
1,041
VantageRM 1,808 581 999
Western Milling 1,257 521 965
DJ October
World Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates -- Survey
CHICAGO--The following are analysts'
estimates in millions of metric tons for world grain and soybean ending
stockpiles for 2018-19 and 2019-20, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The
U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated supply and
demand tables on Thursday at noon ET.
World
Stockpiles (million metric tons)
2018-19
Average Range
USDA Sept.
Corn 323.8 319.0-330.0 329.6
Soybeans 110.7 109.0-113.0 112.4
Wheat 277.5 276.0-280.0 277.2
2019-20
Average Range
USDA Sept.
Corn 296.1 291.0-301.0 306.3
Soybeans 96.9 92.3-108.8 99.2
Wheat 285.7 280.5-288.7 286.5
2018-19 2019-20
Corn Soybeans Wheat
Corn Soybeans
Wheat
Advanced
Market 319.0 109.0 276.0
296.0 97.0 283.0
Allendale 322.2
110.6 278.5
300.9 97.8 288.7
Doane 321.0 110.0 277.5
292.5 95.0 285.5
EDF Man N/A N/A N/A
296.0 95.0 284.0
Farm
Futures N/A N/A N/A
298.0 96.3 286.7
INTL
FCStone 321.0 113.0 276.3
295.8 108.8 286.9
North Star
Comm 330.0 112.0 277.2
301.0 95.5 286.0
Prime-Ag 320.0 111.0 278.0
294.0 95.0 287.0
RMC 321.2 109.8 280.0
291.4 92.3 287.5
US
Commodities 329.6 109.1 277.2
291.0 95.1 280.5
Western
Milling 330.0 112.0 277.2
301.0 98.0 287.0
DJ CBOT Delivery Intentions: Totals - Oct 9
Source: CME Group
Contract Quantity Next Trade
Commodity
Month Delivery Day Assigned Today Date Available
SOYBEAN MEAL
October Oct. 10, 2019 179
Oct 07, 2019
SOYBEAN OIL
October Oct. 10, 2019 52 Oct 02, 2019
WHEAT
General Comments: Wheat markets were higher on what appeared to be
speculative buying tied the threat for a big Winter storm to hit the US and
also for cold and wet weather in Canada.
Chicago SRW was the strongest as it felt the most speculative interest. The support in the Minneapolis market came in
response to a freeze and snow even that happened in the northern Great Plains
and in western Canada this week. Very
little progress has been made in the last part of the harvest in the US and it
seems that there is still a lot of Wheat to be harvested in Canada. Good progress was made in planting the Winter
crops. The Winter Wheat crop is getting
planted in the central and southern Great Plains as well and probably also in
the Pacific Northwest. Southern Midwest
Wheat will be planted soon as the Soybeans harvest is finally getting
underway. USDA will issue another
monthly supply and demand update on Thursday but few changes in ending stocks
levels are anticipated for this month.
The Small Grains production report showed Winter Wheat production about
as expected and uncertain Spring Wheat and Durum estimates that will be revised
next month.
Overnight News:
The southern Great Plains should get showers and storms this week and
drier weather this weekend. Temperatures
should be variable. Northern areas should
see a big storm hit the rest of this week.
Temperatures should be below normal.
The Canadian Prairies should see mostly dry weather after the big storm
moves out in the next day or two.
Temperatures should be below normal.
Chart Analysis: Trends in Chicago are mixed to up with
objectives of 502, 506, and 510 December.
Support is at 492, 487, and 485 December, with resistance at 506, 512,
and 515 December. Trends in Kansas City
are mixed to up with objectives of 417, 425, and 433 December. Support is at 408, 401, and 399 December,
with resistance at 414, 420, and 425 December.
Trends in Minneapolis are mixed to down with objectives of 516 December. Support is at 534, 531, and 522 December, and
resistance is at 546, 550, and 552 December.
DJ Russia, Ukraine Sell 295,000 Tons of Wheat to
Egypt's GASC -- Market Talk
0724 GMT
- Russia and Ukraine restored their dominance as Egypt's wheat suppliers,
selling five cargoes of the grain to the world's biggest wheat importer late
Tuesday. Egypt's state-importing agency bought 180,000 metric tons of Russian
wheat and 115,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat at an average FOB price of $221.64 a
ton, according to price-reporting firm AgriCensus. Prices rose from Egypt's
previous tender on Oct. 1, when the General Authority for Supply Commodities
booked 60,000 tons of French wheat at $219.35 a ton. Tuesday's tender was seen
as a test of whether French wheat would remain competitive with Eastern
European grain following a strong harvest in the European Union's agricultural
powerhouse. The wheat is due to be delivered from Nov. 10-20.
(joe.wallace@wsj.com)
RICE
General
Comments: Rice was
higher as the long grain harvest is coming to the end. Harvest activities are about over in Gulf
Coast areas with many producers reporting less production than last year. Smut has been a big problem in Texas although
quality reports have held up. Mississippi
yields are reported as variable and the crop is grading mostly #2. Arkansas yield reports are reported to be
holding well despite the extreme growing conditions this year and quality
reports indicate that a very high quality crop is being harvested. Good weather in Arkansas and Mississippi
should see the harvest wrap up in the next week or two. Demand for long grains in the export market
has been strong and Mexico has been a particularly active buyer.
Overnight News: The Delta should get mostly
dry conditions this week except for some showers on Friday. Temperatures should be above normal.
Chart
Analysis: Trends are mixed. Support is at 1179, 1173, and 1162 November,
with resistance at 1200, 1205, and 1220 November.
DJ USDA World
Market Rice Prices - Oct 9
USDA today announced the prevailing world
market prices
of milled and
rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields
and location,
and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)
and loan
deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA
-----World Price----- MLG/LDP Rate
Milled Value Rough
Rough
($/cwt) ($/cwt)
($/cwt)
Long
Grain 14.18 9.05 0.00
Medium/Short Grain 13.85 9.28 0.00
Brokens 8.55 ---- ----
CORN AND OATS
General Comments: Corn and Oats closed higher
on ideas that crops in the Great Plains and western Midwest could get damaged
from the Winter storm that is starting near the Rocky Mountains. Ideas of losses coming from a big freeze
event later this week in areas to the west and north of Chicago intensified as
the weather service is calling for up to two feet of snow in western areas. USDA showed that progress remains far behind
and that some significant damage along with some yield loss is very likely. USDA will issue a production estimate but
probably has no real idea of what is going to be the final production as the
harvest is just now getting underway in most of the country. Yields so far have been good in parts of Iowa
and in a few places east of the Mississippi River, but below historical
averages in many areas east of the river.
Demand for US Corn has also been disappointing so far this year. The export pace is down to almost half of
last year and ethanol demand has been lower than last year. That could keep
ending stocks projections relatively higher in the reports.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis: Trends in Corn are up with objectives of 396,
397, and 404 December. Support is at 388,
385, and 381 December, and resistance is at 397, 401, and 403 December. Trends in Oats are mixed to up with
objectives of 290 and 304 December. Support
is at 281, 279, and 278 December, and resistance is at 286, 289, and 290 December.
SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS
General Comments: Soybeans and Soybean Meal were higher on forecasts for a
significant Winter storm with freezing temperatures to affect much of the Great
Plains and the western Midwest. The
market is also concerned about the weather that will happen later this
week. There is the risk of significant
quality losses and perhaps yield losses from the event. USDA showed slow crop progress and a slight
deterioration in crop condition in its reports Monday night. Traders are waiting now for the next round of
production and supply and demand reports that will be released on
Thursday. Harvest activities are only
now getting started so the data that USDA will have to work with on production
will be less than normal. Initial yield
reports have not been real strong so USDA can find less but just how much less
is still a big question. USDA will also
have to work with the demand side of the ledger as trade problems still need o
be resolved. Demand so far has been good
but how USDA sees demand is an open question.
Either way, the potential for reduced ending stocks is great and these
ideas should help support futures prices this week. The next round of US-China trade talks get
underway on Thursday and the trade is not expecting a positive outcome
Overnight
News:
Chart Analysis: Trends
in Soybeans are mixed to up with objectives of 925, 927, and 932 November. Support is at 919, 911, and 908 November, and
resistance is at 924, 936, and 941 November.
Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed to up with objectives of 310.00,
312.00, and 320.00 December. Support is
at 304.00, 301.00, and 300.00 December, and resistance is at 309.00, 311.00,
and 312.00 December. Trends in Soybean
Oil are mixed to up with objectives of 3050 December. Support is at 2980, 2950, and 2930 December,
with resistance at 3020, 3040, and 3050 December.
CANOLA AND PALM OIL
General Comments: Canola was higher on slow
harvest progres. Support also came from
the rally in Chicago Soybean Oil. Snow is
expected in western areas today but cold weather are expected through the end
of the week. Reports indicate that the
harvest is only about one third complete.
Palm Oil was a little higher on stronger outside markets and reports of
improving demand. Vegetable oils and
Crude Oil are firm today. Traders
anticipated improved export demand for the first third of the month when private
surveyors release estimates. The charts
show that futures have rejected a new move lower and are back inside the
bottoming range. Higher competing
vegetable oils could spark a rally in Palm Oil later this week.
Overnight News:
Chart Analysis:
Trends in Canola are up with objectives of 465.00 and 476.00 November. Support is at 459.00, 455.00, and 451.00
November, with resistance at 468.00, 470.00, and 473.00 November. Trends in Palm Oil are mixed. Support is at 2130, 2120, and 2100 December,
with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.
Midwest Weather Forecast: Showers
possible later this week with some snow far western areas. Temperatures should average near to below
normal this week and below to much below normal this weekend.
US Gulf Cash Basis
|
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Corn
|
HRW
|
SRW
|
Soybeans
|
Soybean Meal
|
Soybean Oil
|
Octember
|
+37 Dec
|
+165 Dec
|
+65 Sep
|
+30 Nov
|
+12 Dec
|
N/A
|
November
|
+43 Dec
|
|
+80 Dec
|
+40 Nov
|
|
|
December
|
+51 Dec
|
|
+85 Dec
|
+38 Jan
|
|
|
All basis levels
are positive unless noted as negative
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DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Oct 8
By
MarketsFarm
WINNIPEG, Oct. 8 (MarketsFarm) - The following are the closing
cash canola prices from ICE Futures for Tuesday,
Oct. 8.
Source: ICE Futures
CANOLA
1 Canada NCC Best Bid
Spot Price Basis
Contract Change
*Par Region
440.60 -22.00 Nov 2019
up 1.90
Track Thunder Bay
474.80 10.00
Nov 2019 up 2.20
Track Vancouver
484.80 20.00 Nov 2019
up 2.20
All prices in Canadian dollars per metric ton.
DJ Malaysian
PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - Oct 9
The following are prices for Malaysian palm
oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker
Matthes & Porton Bhd.
Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric
ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton.
Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement
equivalent to 60 kilograms.
Refined,
bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 532.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Nov 537.50
+05.00 Unquoted -
-
Dec 542.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Jan/Feb/Mar 562.50
+05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
olein, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 535.00 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Nov 540.00 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Dec 545.00 +05.00
Unquoted -
-
Jan/Feb/Mar 565.00
+05.00 Unquoted -
-
RBD palm
stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 532.50 +05.00
Unquoted - -
Palm Fatty
Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports
Offer Change
Bid Change
Traded
Oct 432.50 +02.50
Unquoted - -
Crude palm
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 2,150.00 +25.00
Unquoted - -
Palm kernel
oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia
Offer Change Bid
Change Traded
Oct 141.00 +01.00
Unquoted - -
($1=MYR4.1960)
DJ China
Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Oct 09
Soybean No. 1
Turnover:
125,216 lots, or 4.30 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 3,382
3,382 3,322 3,360
3,346 3,356 10 30
290
Jan-20 3,380
3,413 3,376 3,410
3,375 3,395 20
110,044 215,058
Mar-20 -
- - 3,404
3,355 3,404 49
0 34
May-20 3,660
3,708 3,660 3,706
3,674 3,694 20
13,662 70,058
Jul-20 3,736
3,736 3,736 3,736
3,708 3,736 28
2 24
Sep-20 3,726
3,770 3,725 3,770
3,734 3,751 17
1,478 3,182
Corn
Turnover:
884,552 lots, or 16.30 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 1,786
1,793 1,783 1,789
1,785 1,787 2
21,276 33,512
Jan-20 1,823
1,832 1,820 1,830
1,821 1,825 4 564,152 1,315,366
Mar-20 1,845
1,863 1,845 1,863
1,845 1,850 5
135,578 190,068
May-20 1,895 1,906
1,889 1,905 1,892
1,897 5 142,926
474,220
Jul-20 1,916
1,932 1,916 1,928
1,917 1,926 9
1,094 4,824
Sep-20 1,950
1,961 1,945 1,960
1,948 1,952 4
19,526 62,588
Soymeal
Turnover:
2,522,924 lots, or 73.71 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 2,961
2,987 2,948 2,981
2,962 2,974 12
51,942 32,650
Dec-19 2,937
2,990 2,937 2,988
2,967 2,975 8 95,538
134,786
Jan-20 2,910
2,960 2,910 2,959
2,925 2,942 17
1,741,556 2,012,548
Mar-20 2,896
2,935 2,893 2,928
2,898 2,920 22
130 810
May-20 2,807
2,869 2,803 2,869
2,807 2,846 39
548,080 892,866
Jul-20 2,807
2,875 2,807 2,875
2,812 2,838 26
358 1,614
Aug-20 2,876
2,885 2,862 2,885
2,825 2,883 58
102 54
Sep-20 2,838
2,912 2,838 2,912 2,842
2,886 44 85,218
138,944
Palm Oil
Turnover:
579,644 lots, or 27.84 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Oct-19 -
- - 4,880
4,880 4,880 0 0
0
Nov-19 -
- - 4,836
4,836 4,836 0
0 4
Dec-19 -
- - 4,742
4,742 4,742 0
0 4
Jan-20 4,714
4,800 4,712 4,792
4,696 4,766 70
506,652 468,372
Feb-20 -
- - 4,912
4,912 4,912 0
0 716
Mar-20 -
- -
4,948 4,876 4,948
72 0 2
Apr-20 -
- - 4,916
4,916 4,916 0 0
4
May-20 4,992
5,082 4,988 5,072
4,974 5,044 70
70,480 138,072
Jun-20 -
- - 5,132
5,132 5,132 0
0 6
Jul-20 -
- - 4,976
4,976 4,976 0
0 602
Aug-20 -
- - 5,046
4,976 5,046 70
0 2
Sep-20 5,064
5,142 5,060 5,136
5,044 5,108 64
2,512 10,942
Soybean Oil
Turnover:
632,474 lots, or 37.91 billion yuan
Open
High Low Close
Prev. Settle Ch.
Vol Open
Settle Interest
Nov-19 5,942
5,942 5,942 5,942
6,030 5,942 -88
4 4
Dec-19 -
- -
5,900 5,894 5,900
6 0 12
Jan-20 5,940
6,012 5,934 5,998
5,932 5,978 46
517,420 688,428
Mar-20 6,026
6,026 6,026 6,026
5,974 6,026 52
2 510
May-20 6,002
6,084 5,990 6,076
5,996 6,048 52
105,620 242,398
Jul-20 6,042
6,092 6,042 6,092
6,036 6,066 30
30 526
Aug-20 -
- - 5,952
5,924 5,952 28
0 0
Sep-20 6,074
6,140 6,074 6,120
6,062 6,120 58
9,398 23,210
Notes:
1) Unit is
Chinese yuan a metric ton;
2) Ch. is day's
settlement minus previous settlement;
3) Volume and
open interest are in lots;
4) One lot is
equivalent to 10 metric tons.
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performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can
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