DJ September U.S. Wheat Production Estimates -- Survey

  New York--The following are analysts' estimates for 2019 U.S. wheat production, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal.  The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated production forecasts at noon on Monday.

2019 Wheat Production

                                                 USDA         USDA

                      Average       Range       August        2018

All Wheat              1,971     1,940-2,011     1,980        1,884

Winter Wheat           1,330     1,312-1,355     1,326        1,184

Hard Red Winter         844        838-860        840          662

Soft Red Winter         256        250-265        257          286

White Winter            229        225-235        229          236

Other Spring            585        560-601        597          623

Durum                   56          50-58         57           77

                             Winter                             Other

                    All Wheat Wheat  Hard-Red Soft-Red  White  Spring Durum

Advanced Market       1,965    1,312     845      251     229    585     55

AgriVisor             1,960

Allendale             1,986    1,328     841      257     229    601     57

DC Analysis           1,968    1,326     840      257     229    585     57

Doane                 1,980    1,328                             594     58

EDFMan Capital        1,975    1,330     845      256     229    590     55

Farm Futures          1,960    1,324     840      255     229    577     58

Grain Cycles          2,011    1,355     855      265     235    599     57

Hueber Report         1,980    1,351     840      257     229    572     57

INTL FCStone          1,970    1,321     838      256     227    591     58

Sid Love Consulting   2,000    1,346     860      257     229    597     57

Northstar             1,972    1,327     845      257     225    590     55

Price Group           1,948    1,323     843      254     227    570     55

RJ O'Brien            1,973    1,334     846      259     229    582     57

US Commodities        1,980    1,330     845      256     228    595     56

Vantage RM            1,970    1,319     840      250     229    594     57

Western Milling       1,940    1,330     845      250     235    560     50

Zaner Ag Hedge        1,946    1,329     842      260     227    562     55

 

DJ Survey: Sep. 1 Quarterly Grain, Soybean Stockpiles Estimates

  New York--The following are analysts' estimates in millions of bushels for September 1 quarterly U.S. grain and soybean stockpiles, as compiled by The Wall Street Journal. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release updated tables at noon ET on Monday.  

U.S. Stockpiles on Sept. 1, 2019 (million bushels)

                             Average      Range    USDA June 2019 USDA Sept 2018

Corn                          2,436     2,370-2,511     5,202         2,140

Soybeans                       980       940-1,001      1,790          438

Wheat                         2,318     2,200-2,450     1,072         2,390  

                              Corn       Soybeans       Wheat

Advanced Market               2,410         990         2,200

AgriVisor                     2,440        1,000        2,250

Allendale                     2,466         982         2,402

DC Analysis                   2,445         985         2,284

Doane                         2,445         995         2,250

EDFMan Capital                2,425         990         2,300

Farm Futures                  2,475         956         2,249

Grain Cycles                  2,370         995         2,380

Hueber Report                 2,435         975         2,450

INTL FCStone                  2,383         983         2,330

Sid Love Consulting           2,395         975         2,448

Northstar                     2,410         940         2,300

Price Group                   2,410         960         2,390

RJ O'Brien                    2,489        1,001        2,296

US Commodities                2,477         963         2,280

Vantage RM                    2,455         997         2,322

Western Milling               2,511         965         2,295

Zaner Ag Hedge                2,407         994         2,294

 

WHEAT                                 

General Comments:  Winter Wheat markets were mostly lower again yesterday but Minneapolis Spring Wheat was higher once again on weather concerns.  Spring Wheat futures rallied as rains continued to interrupt harvest progress in the northern Great Plains.  The rains have hurt the already slow harvest progress and could affect quality if the rains continue.  Harvest is underway in Canada with most progress made in Saskatchewan and very little progress reported in Manitoba and Alberta.  A hard freeze is likely there in the next week but the crops should be mostly mature and safe from damage.  Planting of the next Winter Wheat crop is making good progress under mostly good conditions in the central Great Plains and Midwest.  World price quotes are called steady so far this week,

Overnight News:  The southern Great Plains should get mostly dry conditions until showers appear this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.  Northern areas should see scattered showers through the weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal through Thursday, then below normal.  The Canadian Prairies should see mostly light to moderate showers on Thursday and over the weekend.  Temperatures should be below normal with a hard freeze possible this weekend.    

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Chicago are mixed.  Support is at 478, 475, and 469 December, with resistance at 485, 492, and 496 December.  Trends in Kansas City are mixed.  Support is at 403, 399, and 397 December, with resistance at 410, 414, and 425 December.  Trends in Minneapolis are up with objectives of 540 December.  Support is at 544, 537, and 530 December, and resistance is at 550, 552, and 560 December.

 

RICE

General Comments:   Rice drifted lower on what appeared to be some follow through selling from speculators.  Harvest is moving along at roughly a normal pace but the trade still expects greatly reduced long grain production this year.  The main harvest is winding down in Texas and southern Louisiana and is very active in Mississippi and Arkansas.  Yield reports are generally average to below average for these areas.  Yield results are not expected to improve as the harvest moves north.  Producers to the north have seen some bad growing conditions this year and even early planted fields in the best condition are reporting lower yields.  Futures are now in some support areas in the daily charts that could hold.  Future should work higher again soon if the prices hold now.

Overnight News:  The Delta should get mostly dry conditions.  Temperatures should be above normal.

Chart Analysis:  Trends are down with objectives of 1189 November.  Support is at 1195, 1184, and 1174 November, with resistance at 1220, 1227, and 1230 November.

 

DJ USDA World Market Rice Prices - Sep 25

  USDA today announced the prevailing world market prices

of milled and rough rice, adjusted for U.S. milling yields

and location, and the resulting marketing loan gain (MLG)

and loan deficiency payment LDP) rates. Source: USDA 

                    -----World Price-----      MLG/LDP Rate

                     Milled Value  Rough      Rough

                     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)     ($/cwt)

Long Grain            14.40         9.19       0.00

Medium/Short Grain    14.06         9.42       0.00

Brokens                8.69         ----       ----

 

CORN AND OATS                   

General Comments:  Corn closed a little higher and made new highs for the week before falling back a bit to close at the upper end of the recent trading range.  Support came from hopes for improved bio fuels demand and better demand in general and on ideas of reduced yields as the harvesters get ready to roll.  The crop remains very late and much of the crop will not be mature until the second half of next month.  Some northwestern sections could see freezing temperatures before crop maturity and some additional yield could be lost.  The harvest has begun in southern parts of the Midwest and variable yields have been reported.  The majority of the yields have been below a year ago and this could indicate that the crop will be much smaller than projected by USDA in its monthly estimates.  The crops harvested first were planted first and were thought to have the highest yield potential. 

Overnight News:  

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Corn are mixed.  Support is at 370, 368, and 365 December, and resistance is at 377, 381, and 383 December.  Trends in Oats are mixed to down with objectives of 268, 263, and 259 December.  Support is at 270, 265, and 263 December, and resistance is at 275, 281, and 283 December.

 

SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS

General Comments:  Soybeans and Soybean Meal were a little higher on indications that China bought a few more cargoes of US Soybeans at the start of the week.  USDA has yet to confirm any new sales so far this week but the press reports that the sales have been made and more are coming.  China is allowing its importers to buy a significant amount of Soybeans at this time with no punitive tariffs.  That has led to the increased demand here.  The Soybeans are supposed to be shipped from the Pacific Northwest.  The harvest is not far away and yield reports will be monitored as harvesters start to roll.  Soybeans are turning color and some are dropping leaves in almost all areas of the Midwest now.  No one is exactly sure how the crop will turn out but the betting is still that USDA is too high with its yield estimates.  A smaller crop will not mean a big change in pricing and a big rally if the US is not selling and it needs to get a trade deal with China.  

Overnight News:  USDA announced sales of 581,000 tons of US Soybeans to China this morning.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Soybeans are mixed.  Support is at 886, 881, and 879 November, and resistance is at 899, 905, and 909 November.  Trends in Soybean Meal are mixed.  Support is at 293.00, 291.00, and 289.00 October, and resistance is at 298.00, 299.00, and 300.00 October.  Trends in Soybean Oil are mixed.  Support is at 2900, 2850, and 2800 October, with resistance at 2950, 2980, and 3020 October.

 

CANOLA AND PALM OIL        

General Comments:  Canola was a little higher again on Chicago price action and slow harvest progress.  Forecasts for a freeze and maybe some snow in the next week also supported prices.  It keeps raining in the Prairies and the harvest progress has been slow.  Reports indicate that the harvest is only about one third complete.  Palm Oil was a little higher on a weaker Ringgit.  Exports remain disappointing for this month.  The market still expects limited upside potential, but the charts show that the market still has potential to move higher over time.  There are ideas that there is plenty of production and supply to meet any expected demand.  Stocks in Indonesia have increased for four straight months.

Overnight News:   SGS said that Malaysian Palm Oil exports are now 1.102 million tons from 1.379 million last month.

Chart Analysis:  Trends in Canola are mixed.  Support is at 447.00, 445.00, and 441.00 November, with resistance at 451.00, 453.00, and 455.00 November.  Trends in Palm Oil are down with objectives of 2120 and 2020 December.  Support is at 2140, 2120, and 2100 December, with resistance at 2180, 2200, and 2220 December.

 

Midwest Weather Forecast:   Showers possible late this week and mostly this weekend.  Temperatures should be near to above normal.

 

US Gulf Cash Basis
	Corn	HRW	SRW	Soybeans	Soybean Meal	Soybean Oil
September	+37 Dec	+160 Dec	+70 Sep	+16 Nov	+12 Oct	N/A
October	+42 Dec		+80 Dec	+17 Nov
November	+45 Dec		+80 Dec	+31 Nov
All basis levels are positive unless noted as negative

 

DJ ICE Canada Cash Grain Close - Sep 24

WINNIPEG -- The following are the closing cash

canola prices from ICE Futures. 

Source: ICE Futures

                     Price     Basis     Contract     Change

CANOLA

*Par Region          430.30    -18.00    Nov 2019     up 4.90

Basis: Thunder Bay   459.30     10.00    Nov 2019     unchanged

Basis: Vancouver     468.30     20.00    Nov 2019     unchanged 

All prices in Canadian dollars per metric tonne. 

*Quote for previous day 

Source: Commodity News Service Canada 

(news@marketsfasrm.com, or 204-414-9084)

 

DJ Malaysian PM Cash Market Prices for Palm Oil - September 25

  The following are prices for Malaysian palm oil in the cash market at 1000 GMT Wednesday, supplied by commodity broker Matthes & Porton Bhd.

  Prices are quoted in U.S. dollars a metric ton, except for crude palm oil and palm kernel oil, which are in ringgit a ton. Palm kernel oil prices are in ringgit a pikul, a Malaysian measurement equivalent to 60 kilograms.  

Refined, bleached and deodorized palm oil, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           517.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Nov           520.00     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Dec           527.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan/Feb/Mar   550.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm olein, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           522.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Nov           525.00     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -

Dec           532.50     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -

Jan/Feb/Mar   555.00     -02.50      Unquoted   -        -  

RBD palm stearin, FOB, Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           522.50     -05.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm Fatty Acid Distillate, FOB Malaysian ports

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           430.00       0.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Crude palm oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           2,080.00   -10.00      Unquoted   -        -  

Palm kernel oil, Delivered Basis, South Malaysia

              Offer      Change      Bid        Change   Traded

Oct           136.00     -01.00      Unquoted   -        -  

($1=MYR4.1890)

 

DJ China Dalian Grain Futures Closing Prices, Volume - Sep 25

Soybean No. 1  

Turnover: 107,202 lots, or 3.70 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.     Vol      Open

                                    Settle                       Interest

Nov-19  3,378  3,422  3,355  3,422   3,390   3,379  -11     134       320

Jan-20  3,423  3,444  3,415  3,438   3,427   3,429    2  98,752   217,028

Mar-20  3,430  3,456  3,430  3,438   3,407   3,447   40      32        36

May-20  3,654  3,665  3,643  3,654   3,652   3,653    1   7,806    62,924

Jul-20  3,664  3,664  3,637  3,637   3,656   3,650   -6       4        16

Sep-20  3,633  3,689  3,633  3,685   3,678   3,681    3     474     1,052  

Corn  

Turnover: 493,338 lots, or 9.17 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol       Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Nov-19  1,832  1,833  1,827  1,827   1,833   1,830   -3   58,930    150,908

Jan-20  1,856  1,857  1,850  1,850   1,857   1,853   -4  374,256  1,240,554

Mar-20  1,878  1,878  1,873  1,875   1,879   1,875   -4       68      5,430

May-20  1,925  1,927  1,919  1,921   1,925   1,922   -3   53,852    365,464

Jul-20  1,946  1,946  1,941  1,942   1,945   1,942   -3      238      2,690

Sep-20  1,967  1,974  1,967  1,968   1,971   1,970   -1    5,994     23,612  

Soymeal  

Turnover: 2,189,876 lots, or 62.50 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.        Vol       Open

                                    Settle                           Interest

Nov-19  2,889  2,917  2,879  2,913   2,884   2,902   18     86,342    187,142

Dec-19  2,877  2,909  2,870  2,904   2,881   2,892   11      1,686      2,804

Jan-20  2,848  2,882  2,844  2,880   2,848   2,865   17  1,757,496  1,734,332

Mar-20  2,836  2,854  2,832  2,854   2,829   2,844   15         52        784

May-20  2,765  2,789  2,761  2,777   2,762   2,778   16    314,216    781,540

Jul-20  2,773  2,796  2,773  2,785   2,768   2,787   19        238      1,738

Aug-20  2,797  2,826  2,788  2,826   2,787   2,799   12         18        148

Sep-20  2,803  2,826  2,800  2,813   2,798   2,813   15     29,828     73,752  

Palm Oil  

Turnover: 711,004 lots, or 33.76 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle   Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                         Interest

Oct-19  -          -      -  5,078   5,078   5,078     0        0         2

Nov-19  5,012  5,012  5,012  5,012   5,220   5,012  -208        8        14

Dec-19  5,134  5,134  4,696  4,754   4,810   4,786   -24       14         4

Jan-20  4,716  4,748  4,692  4,720   4,746   4,718   -28  636,310   554,006

Feb-20  -          -      -  4,844   4,844   4,844     0        0       716

Mar-20  -          -      -  4,894   4,922   4,894   -28        0         2

Apr-20  -          -      -  4,912   4,912   4,912     0        0         2

May-20  4,992  5,026  4,978  5,006   5,020   5,000   -20   73,368   142,830

Jun-20  -          -      -  5,132   5,132   5,132     0        0         6

Jul-20  -          -      -  5,030   5,030   5,030     0        0       602

Aug-20  5,060  5,060  5,000  5,000   5,062   5,030   -32        8         2

Sep-20  5,048  5,086  5,042  5,060   5,074   5,056   -18    1,296     7,904  

Soybean Oil  

Turnover: 788,772 lots, or 47.43 billion yuan  

        Open    High    Low  Close   Prev.  Settle  Ch.      Vol      Open

                                    Settle                        Interest

Nov-19  -          -      -  6,078   6,078   6,078    0        0         4

Dec-19  -          -      -  6,010   6,010   6,010    0        0        12

Jan-20  5,984  6,038  5,976  6,014   6,016   6,008   -8  688,074   804,592

Mar-20  -          -      -  6,118   6,118   6,118    0        0       522

May-20  6,020  6,068  6,020  6,050   6,044   6,044    0   96,894   256,920

Jul-20  -          -      -  6,092   6,092   6,092    0        0       524

Aug-20  -          -      -  6,020   6,020   6,020    0        0         0

Sep-20  6,086  6,126  6,048  6,096   6,094   6,098    4    3,804    15,288  

Notes:

1) Unit is Chinese yuan a metric ton;

2) Ch. is day's settlement minus previous settlement;

3) Volume and open interest are in lots;

4) One lot is equivalent to 10 metric tons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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