MORNING SOFTS COMMENTS
Jack Scoville
Wednesday,
September 25, 2019
COTTON
General Comments: Cotton was lower on soft world markets and on no indications that China
has any interest in buying US Cotton at this time. Chinese companies can buy US pork and
Soybeans but no mention has been made about US Cotton.. Demand otherwise remains bad. World demand has been weak in part due to the
US-China tensions and fears of a recession or at least a global economic
slowdown are keeping buyers away. World
prices are weak. Production ideas remain
elevated despite bad weather in the Texas Panhandle. It remains generally hot and dry there. Producers in the Southeast are getting hot
and there is no real rain in sight.
Harvest is underway now and will increase in the next couple of weeks,
so there are not many reasons to look for much upside in prices for a while.
Overnight News: The
Delta should see showers today and tomorrow then dry weather and Southeast
should see dry conditions. Temperatures
should be mostly above normal. Texas
will have dry conditions until some showers appear this weekend. Temperatures will be above normal. The USDA average price is now 57.83
ct/lb. ICE said that certified stocks
are now 10,824 ba1es, from 10,933 bales yesterday. ICE said that 0 notices were posted for
delivery against October contracts and that total deliveries for the month are
now 0 contracts.
Chart Trends: Trends in Cotton are mixed. Support is at 5970, 5910, and 5800 December,
with resistance of 6140, 6160, and 6210 December.
FCOJ
General
Comments: FCOJ was a little lower as the
tropical storms continue to veer away from the state and as growing conditions
are good as the harvest comes closer.
The state has been lucky this year as the storms have curved away from
the state and moved into the US farther north or remained out at sea. It is just past the high point in the
hurricane season and forecasters are still keeping close eyes on the Atlantic. There are currently three tropical systems of
interest but none are likely to hit the state.
The most potent system for now has dumped a lot of rain on Puerto Rico
and the Virgin Islands but now will remain at sea. Chart patterns are mixed in response to the
hurricane threats and the potential for more systems to form in the short
term. The weather in Florida had been
good as the state has seen frequent showers and storms that have aided in
development in the fruit. Inventories in
Florida are still well above a year ago.
Fruit for the next crop is developing and the harvest will be starting
soon. Crop conditions are called good.
Overnight
News: Florida should get mostly dry conditions this week
with chances for showers on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will average near to above
normal. Brazil should get scattered
showers today and this weekend and near to above normal temperatures.
Chart Trends: Trends in FCOJ are mixed to down with
objectives of 98.00 and 94.00 November.
Support is at 98.00, 97.00, and 95.00 September, with resistance at 102.00,
103.00, and 105.00 September.
COFFEE
General
Comments: New York and London both
closed little changed as the market waits for weather news and currency moves
before deciding on the next direction for Coffee futures. Speculators were quiet and so was the cash
market. The Arabica growing areas are
waiting for rains to restart flowering after some rains earlier in the
year. Rains are forecast to start again
this weekend and there have been some reports of showers in some areas as of
last weekend. Vietnam crops are thought
to be big despite some uneven growing conditions this year. It has been warm and dry at times, then the
growing areas have seen some very heavy rains.
The harvest there will be underway soon.
Demand has been increasing over the last few years on the consumer
level, but production potential is growing faster. The weaker production due to adverse weather
in both Brazil and Argentina this year should help to hold prices from going
much lower
Overnight News: ICE certified stocks are lower today at 2.311
million bags. The ICO daily average
price is now 98.26 ct/lb. Brazil will
get showers today and over the weekend with near to above normal
temperatures. Vietnam will see scattered
showers or dry weather.
Chart Trends: Trends
in New York are mixed. Support is at 98.00,
97.00, and 95.00 December, and resistance is at 102.00, 105.00 and 106.00 December. Trends in London are mixed. Support is at 1290, 1280, and 1260 November,
and resistance is at 1320, 1340, and 1360 November.
SUGAR
General Comments: Futures closed higher again
yesterday and trends are still up in both markets. New York is now at some resistance areas on
the charts and could see somewhat lower prices for a couple of days after a
sharp rally yesterday. Support is coming
from ideas of improving ethanol demand and questions about production in India,
Russia, and Europe. The US government is
looking for ways to increase biofuels consumption in the US after granting the
refinery waivers. It has found a way to
partially restore the lost demand by increasing the use of E-85 but most oil
companies are fighting this new initiative.
It is still dry in Brazil but some improved rains are forecast for the
near future. Other Sugar production
areas such as India and Thailand have good weather. It remains too hot and dry in parts of Europe
and production of Sugarbeets has been slow.
Australia remains hot and dry but some southern sections are getting
some rains now. It was dry in Queensland
over the weekend but conditions there are reported to be fair.
Overnight News: Brazil will get mostly dry weather this week
and scattered showers this weekend.
Temperatures should be near normal.
Chart Trends: Trends in New York are mixed
to up with objectives of 1260 and 1320 December. Support is at 1210, 1190, and 1170 March, and
resistance is at 1250, 1270, and 1300 March.
Trends in London are up with no objectives. Support is at 326.00, 323.00, and 318.00 December,
and resistance is at 335.00, 337.00, and 340.00 December.
COCOA
General
Comments: Futures closed lower in both London and New York as it looks like some
long liquidation hit both markets.
Trends are still up in both markets but futures are still close to some
big resistance areas on the charts and more liquidation is possible for the
rest of the week . The market could act weaker as the next main crop harvest comes closer
to reality in West Africa. Some initial
harvesting is being reported in Nigeria, but most areas will not start the
harvest just yet. The weather in Ivory
Coast has improved due to reports of frequent showers, but there are reports of
disease in Ghana. There is also talk
that the governments in Ivory Coast and Ghana are trying to force buyers to pay
more to help support minimum pricing schemes that the governments have enacted. These efforts are reported to be at least
partially successful as they control a huge part of the market. Growing and harvesting conditions in Asia are
also reported to be good. The harvest is
ongoing amid somewhat drier weather.
Overnight
News: Scattered showers and storms are expected in
West Africa. Temperatures will be on
both sides of normal. Malaysia and
Indonesia should see showers.
Temperatures should average above normal. Brazil will get mostly dry conditions and
near to above normal temperatures. ICE
certified stocks are higher today at 3.809 million bags.
Chart
Trends: Trends in New York are mixed to up with no
objectives. Support is at 2430, 2400,
and 2370 December, with resistance at 2480, 2500, and 2520 December. Trends in London are mixed to up with
objectives of 1970 December. Support is
at 1850, 1830, and 1790 December, with resistance at 1890, 1910, and 1920 December.
141 W. Jackson Blvd. Suite 1920, Chicago, IL 60604
| (800) 769-7021 | (312) 264-4322 (Direct)
| www.pricegroup.com
Past
performance is not indicative of future results. Investing in futures can
involve substantial risk & is not for everyone. The information and data in
this report were obtained from sources considered reliable. Their accuracy or
completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed
as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of
any securities or futures.
The Price
Futures Group, its officers, directors, employees, and brokers may in the
normal course of business have positions, which may or may not agree with the
opinions expressed in this report. Any decision to purchase or sell as a result
of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the
person authorizing such transaction. Reproduction and/or distribution of any
portion of this report are strictly prohibited without the written permission
of the author.
To SUBSCRIBE to Morning Softs please click here.
To Unsubscribe from Morning Softs please
click here.
Click Here to View the Morning Softs Archives